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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 10:20:16 am

Strategic Warmth

Donald Trump’s lavish praise of Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 summit offered a familiar lesson that in international affairs, there is often a vast gulf between atmospherics and reality. Whether it translates into warmer U.S. policy towards India after a period of pretty intense frostiness is another matter. Trump, who only months ago was disparaging India with the sort of rhetorical abandon usually reserved for political opponents, suddenly rediscovered his affection for the...

Strategic Warmth

Donald Trump’s lavish praise of Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 summit offered a familiar lesson that in international affairs, there is often a vast gulf between atmospherics and reality. Whether it translates into warmer U.S. policy towards India after a period of pretty intense frostiness is another matter. Trump, who only months ago was disparaging India with the sort of rhetorical abandon usually reserved for political opponents, suddenly rediscovered his affection for the world’s largest democracy. The American president described Modi as a “tough trader” while simultaneously calling him “an angel.” It was the sort of praise-soaked performance that recalled the heady days of ‘Howdy Modi’ and ‘Namaste Trump.’ Yet, seasoned observers of Trump know that his compliments are often as revealing as they are unreliable. Few world leaders have demonstrated such a remarkable capacity to oscillate between criticism and admiration as Trump. One moment India is a troublesome trading partner; the next it is an indispensable ally, never mind the U.S. willingness to indulge Pakistan’s anti-India machinations. The contradiction does not seem to trouble Trump. The question is whether Washington is genuinely attempting to repair ties with New Delhi after a period of growing strain. For all the noise generated by tariff disputes, immigration restrictions and occasional diplomatic irritants, the strategic logic underpinning the relationship has only strengthened. China’s growing assertiveness has convinced successive American administrations, regardless of party, that a stable balance of power in Asia is impossible without Indian participation. Trump may possess little patience for traditional alliances, but even he understands this arithmetic. His declaration that America would assist India if attacked was particularly notable, given that the U.S. rushed to shield Pakistan after Operation Sindoor. That said, the obstacles that have complicated the Indo-U.S. relationship have not disappeared. Trade remains a perennial source of friction. Trump continues to view international commerce through a mercantilist lens, measuring success largely through bilateral balances and tariff concessions. Indian professionals and students remain deeply affected by American visa policies. Modi himself raised concerns about the safety of Indian seafarers following recent American military actions in the Gulf of Oman that resulted in Indian casualties. Going by Trump’s record, personal rapport be mistaken for institutional trust. The history of Indo-American relations is littered with moments of enthusiasm followed by disappointment. What has sustained the partnership in recent years is not chemistry between leaders but a convergence of interests. That may ultimately be the most important takeaway from the latest Modi-Trump encounter. The meeting was less a revival of an old friendship than an acknowledgement of mutual necessity. Smiles and compliments make for good television. They may even indicate that both governments are seeking to lower the temperature after months of tension. But in the Trump era, warm words are among the cheapest commodities in international politics.

Gamble and the Challenge

Updated: Nov 18, 2024

Eknath Shinde

As Maharashtra eagerly anticipates the election results on November 23, one name dominates political discussions: Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Known for his bold moves, Shinde has reshaped the state’s political dynamics in unprecedented ways. In June 2022, Shinde set the stage for upheaval when he, along with several MLAs, left for Surat, plunging the coalition government into crisis. Just days later, with the BJP’s support, he assumed the role of chief minister, marking a shift no one saw coming.


The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi, a coalition formed in 2019 by Shiv Sena, Congress, and NCP, had governed Maharashtra until Shinde’s exit. The impact of this political drama on state politics cannot be understated, as Shinde’s departure led to the fall of the MVA government. Over the past two years, Shinde has defied expectations, run a successful government while demonstrating independence from the BJP—a scenario few anticipated. His political acumen has now positioned him as a rising figure in BJP’s inner circle, potentially posing a challenge to BJP stalwart Devendra Fadnavis.


For Shinde, this election marks a crucial turning point. His objective is clear: securing wins for as many of his candidates as possible, solidifying his position in Maharashtra’s political landscape. However, the real test lies beyond the election results. In a political era where party loyalty is fluid, Shinde’s task will be to retain the loyalty of the elected MLAs.


Shinde’s journey from auto-rickshaw driver to prominent Shiv Sena leader has endeared him to the people, especially in Thane. Known for his humble behavior, he has built strong connections across all levels, from party workers to local households. However, this simplicity has led some BJP leaders to underestimate him. Now, even his allies realize that Shinde’s strategic mind and influence extend far beyond appearances.


One of Shinde’s significant achievements has been implementing the ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana,’ an initiative originally from Madhya Pradesh’s BJP government, which gained immense popularity in Maharashtra. This move not only showcases his keen sense of public sentiment but also distances him from his allies by establishing his independent policy-making approach.


Despite his growing influence, Shinde faces a challenge from the grassroots Shiv Sainiks who view him as a “traitor” for breaking with the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT) faction. Recasting the narrative behind his decision to part ways with UBT will be essential if he hopes to gain widespread voter support.


Emphasizing his motivations and successes, particularly with initiatives like the ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana,’ may help him connect with skeptical constituents.


With solid connections at the local level and rapport with senior BJP leaders like Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, Shinde’s influence is likely to endure. This election will ultimately test Shinde’s leadership, resilience, and ability to navigate Maharashtra’s intricate political landscape. As Maharashtra’s political future hangs in the balance, Shinde stands at the forefront, steering the state’s uncertain course with both determination and ambition.

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