top of page

By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm...

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, but was likely to be neutralized by the IOD. Considering the recent 10-days of torrential downpour in large parts of western and southern India, experts are optimistic that the IOD may help salvage this year’s monsoon, as it did in the past. The forecasts of a neutral IOD in May-June have proved true and meteorologists are hopeful that it may even turn positive as the season progresses and the rains cover the entire country in July. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said today: “Conditions are favourable for the further advance of Southwest Monsoon into the remaining parts of the north Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and the rest of the country in the next 2-3 days.” Forecast models indicated a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end, and earlier even the IMD had placed India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category this year. The current spell of heavy rains has brought smiles with water bodies filling up quickly in Maharashtra. Even the worried Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) announced a 41+ pc water storage today – lighting up Mumbaikars, though apprehensions persist over the rest of the season. Active Phase However, the waxing and waning of the monsoon rainfall is a normal process and the monsoon is currently in the ‘active phase’ due to multiple weather systems, according to climatologist Kartiki Negi, Lead, Climate Impact at Climate Trends. “Monsoon 2026 began under the threat of a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, but we must not forget the impact of climate change that has altered the character of the monsoon forever,” Negi told ‘The Perfect Voice’. The Pacific Ocean rapidly warmed toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition. India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now moving into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year, experts said. Explaining the scenario this year, Negi said: “During the ‘active phases’ of monsoon, we will see high-intensity events in shorter duration. El Niño is also known for temporarily enhancing global temperatures. The number of rainy days will be less but spells of extremely heavy rains cannot be ruled out”. Incidentally, in the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’ - in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons. What is El Niño A battle between the weather conditions of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean often decides the monsoon rain quota for India – whether there will be abundant rainfall or drought conditions – directly hitting agriculture, economy and the people. The culprit is El Nino, which develops when the eastern Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, the heated air alters the global wind patterns, weakening the moisture-laden monsoon winds headed towards India – with potentially disastrous consequences. Its opposite phase is La Nina, which cools the Pacific Ocean, boosts Indian monsoon and results in widespread and intense rainfall. However, there is a buffer close by – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – which can help balance the conditions in the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia. In a positive IOD, warmer waters near Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia generate stronger rain-bearing winds towards India and help offset the negative effects of El Nino – as in 2019, when India escaped a drought. But during a negative IOD, the rainfall moves towards Indonesia, and when it happens during an El Nino year, India can face a huge risk of severe drought. This year, the IOD is in a neutral phase currently, and experts are hopeful it may turn positive over the coming months, thus sparing India of the spectre of a major drought, despite the El Nino. As an expert said: “Even a slight change in sea surface temperature thousands of kms away can affect the rice on our plates…”

Gamble and the Challenge

Updated: Nov 18, 2024

Eknath Shinde

As Maharashtra eagerly anticipates the election results on November 23, one name dominates political discussions: Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Known for his bold moves, Shinde has reshaped the state’s political dynamics in unprecedented ways. In June 2022, Shinde set the stage for upheaval when he, along with several MLAs, left for Surat, plunging the coalition government into crisis. Just days later, with the BJP’s support, he assumed the role of chief minister, marking a shift no one saw coming.


The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi, a coalition formed in 2019 by Shiv Sena, Congress, and NCP, had governed Maharashtra until Shinde’s exit. The impact of this political drama on state politics cannot be understated, as Shinde’s departure led to the fall of the MVA government. Over the past two years, Shinde has defied expectations, run a successful government while demonstrating independence from the BJP—a scenario few anticipated. His political acumen has now positioned him as a rising figure in BJP’s inner circle, potentially posing a challenge to BJP stalwart Devendra Fadnavis.


For Shinde, this election marks a crucial turning point. His objective is clear: securing wins for as many of his candidates as possible, solidifying his position in Maharashtra’s political landscape. However, the real test lies beyond the election results. In a political era where party loyalty is fluid, Shinde’s task will be to retain the loyalty of the elected MLAs.


Shinde’s journey from auto-rickshaw driver to prominent Shiv Sena leader has endeared him to the people, especially in Thane. Known for his humble behavior, he has built strong connections across all levels, from party workers to local households. However, this simplicity has led some BJP leaders to underestimate him. Now, even his allies realize that Shinde’s strategic mind and influence extend far beyond appearances.


One of Shinde’s significant achievements has been implementing the ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana,’ an initiative originally from Madhya Pradesh’s BJP government, which gained immense popularity in Maharashtra. This move not only showcases his keen sense of public sentiment but also distances him from his allies by establishing his independent policy-making approach.


Despite his growing influence, Shinde faces a challenge from the grassroots Shiv Sainiks who view him as a “traitor” for breaking with the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT) faction. Recasting the narrative behind his decision to part ways with UBT will be essential if he hopes to gain widespread voter support.


Emphasizing his motivations and successes, particularly with initiatives like the ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana,’ may help him connect with skeptical constituents.


With solid connections at the local level and rapport with senior BJP leaders like Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, Shinde’s influence is likely to endure. This election will ultimately test Shinde’s leadership, resilience, and ability to navigate Maharashtra’s intricate political landscape. As Maharashtra’s political future hangs in the balance, Shinde stands at the forefront, steering the state’s uncertain course with both determination and ambition.

Comments

bottom of page