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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

Between illegal migration and the promise of development

New Delhi: Assam's 2026 election reflects a fierce contest over identity, illegal migration, and development, where youth sentiment, tribal rights, border anxieties, and welfare politics converge to redefine the state's-and Northeast India's-political future.   Over the past decade, Assam's politics has undergone a transformation of remarkable intensity. This shift is not merely a story of power struggles or the thrill of electoral victories and defeats; rather, it reflects a deeper internal...

Between illegal migration and the promise of development

New Delhi: Assam's 2026 election reflects a fierce contest over identity, illegal migration, and development, where youth sentiment, tribal rights, border anxieties, and welfare politics converge to redefine the state's-and Northeast India's-political future.   Over the past decade, Assam's politics has undergone a transformation of remarkable intensity. This shift is not merely a story of power struggles or the thrill of electoral victories and defeats; rather, it reflects a deeper internal conflict within the state, one caught at the intersection of identity, demography, land, and development. What emerges is a portrait of a society negotiating competing anxieties and aspirations, where political change mirrors a broader search for equilibrium. Congress seeks to craft a broader social coalition built around the "shared concerns" of tribal.   In the current electoral landscape, an unexpected emotional issue has also surfaced, the reported death of popular singer Jubin Garg. This development has triggered a strong reaction, particularly among young people. The surge of sentiment on social media, marked by calls for justice and visible public outrage, suggests that if this issue sustains its presence in the campaign discourse, it could significantly influence youth voting behavior.   Another crucial dimension of identity politics is the demand to grant Scheduled Tribe status to six indigenous communities. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had made this promise in the previous election, but it remains unfulfilled. The opposition has framed this as a case of electoral betrayal, while the BJP has cited administrative and constitutional complexities as the reason for the delay. The issue continues to carry both symbolic and electoral weight.   Political Narratives This election is not merely about the arithmetic of seats; it is equally about the reconfiguration of alliances and the reconstruction of political narratives. The Congress has distanced itself from the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and formed a new platform, the "Assam Sonmilito Morcha," which includes regional players such as the Assam Jatiya Parishad. In the previous election, the alliance with AIUDF helped Congress consolidate Muslim votes, but it also enabled the BJP to polarize Hindu voters more effectively. This time, Congress appears to be attempting to move beyond that image, seeking to craft a broader social coalition built around the "shared concerns" of tribal, Assamese, and other communities.   On the other hand, the BJP's strategy also reflects notable recalibration. Its cautious approach to seat-sharing with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and its focused attention on 15 seats in the Bodoland Territorial Region illustrate this shift. In this region, the BJP has allied with the Bodoland People's Front (BPF), with BPF contesting 11 seats and the BJP 4. In the previous election, BPF had aligned with Congress; however, its resurgence in the Bodoland Territorial Council elections has altered the political equations. This shift is significant, as the Bodoland Territorial Region remains central to Assam's evolving geopolitical balance, making it a decisive arena in the state's new political calculus.   Central Issue In this election, the question of "illegal immigrants" has once again emerged as a central and polarising issue. In Assam, concerns around undocumented migration, particularly involving those alleged to have entered from Bangladesh, have long shaped political discourse. Recent statements by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma referring to "Miya Muslims," along with large-scale eviction drives targeting what the government describes as illegal encroachments, have further intensified the debate. The state claims to have cleared thousands of acres of government land, framing these actions as necessary for restoring law, order, and enabling development.   The opposition, however, views these measures through a different lens, arguing that they deepen social divisions and disproportionately target specific communities. At the same time, proponents within the state's ruling establishment contend that without addressing illegal land occupation and demographic imbalances, "balanced development" remains unattainable. This assertion is being challenged by the Congress and other opposition parties, who invoke constitutional protections and the need for social harmony.   The impact of eviction and "de-bonding" drives has been particularly visible in sensitive border belts, often referred to as the "Chicken Neck" villages. In these fragile frontier regions, communities such as small farmers, tea garden workers, and borderland populations find themselves in a state of uncertainty, grappling with questions of security and identity. Here, electoral politics is often caught between two competing narratives: resistance to illegal immigration and the urgent demand for local livelihoods.   Direct Inducement On the development front, the ruling BJP is foregrounding its governance record, with the Orunodoi (Arunodoy) scheme as a centerpiece. Just ahead of the elections, under its third phase, direct financial assistance of Rs 9,000 was transferred to nearly four million women beneficiaries, amounting to an outlay of approximately Rs 3,600 crore. Beyond its welfare dimension, the scheme is also widely seen as a calibrated political strategy aimed at consolidating women voters, a demographic that is nearly equal in size to male voters in Assam and, in several regions, exhibits higher turnout rates.   The opposition has sharply criticised the scheme, describing it as a form of "direct electoral inducement." In its "People's Chargesheet," the Congress has leveled serious allegations against the government, including corruption, the prevalence of a "syndicate raj," the transfer of land to corporate interests, and misuse of administrative machinery. According to opposition claims, a structured network influences the allocation of contracts and resources, adversely affecting small businesses, tea garden workers, and ordinary citizens. Alongside these concerns, broader issues such as unemployment, inflation, and growing social discontent have also become integral to the electoral narrative.   While the BJP highlights its administrative assertiveness, such as crackdowns on child marriage and measures aimed at curbing polygamy, as key achievements, the opposition dismisses these as selective interventions, arguing that they divert attention from deeper economic challenges.   Ultimately, the Assam Assembly election of 2026 is not merely about a change in power; it represents a critical inflection point in the state's political trajectory. On one side, the BJP is seeking to legitimize its governance model by linking the issue of illegal immigration with development, security, and stability. On the other, the Congress is attempting to position itself as a viable alternative, emphasizing social balance, institutional politics, and renewed leadership.   For voters, the choice is stark: whether to endorse the promise of stability and continuity, or to pivot toward change. The results on May 4 will not only shape Assam's future but are also likely to influence the broader political direction of Northeast India.

Gates of Power, Corridors of Pain: The Chokepoint Fallacy

From the Øresund to the Dardanelles, chokepoints have imposed prolonged conflict and heavy costs on those who seek to command them.

Gallipoli landings, 1915.
Gallipoli landings, 1915.

With Washington mired in a strategic cul-de-sac in Iran with no evident off-ramp, there has been frenzied speculation in the past few days of President Donald Trump and the Pentagon mulling weeks-long ground operations, including raids on Kharg Island and Iranian coastal positions abutting the Strait of Hormuz.


Kharg, lying some 650 kilometres northwest of the strait, handles the bulk of Iran’s oil exports. The logic behind its proposed seizure is to constrict Tehran’s fiscal lifeline.


Regardless of whether American troops are ultimately deployed on ground in Iran, the allure of capturing global chokepoints has exerted a powerful hold over strategists in different marches of history.


For centuries, a narrow strait, a fortified island or a constricted passage between two seas have acquired an almost talismanic allure when contemplated in the councils of power.


Trump’s designs upon Kharg Island belong to this enduring tradition: the belief that the seizure of a point may compel the submission of a system.


But History, that stern tutor of overreach, offers a colder verdict. While chokepoints have enriched nations, more often they have entangled ambition, provoked resistance and imposed costs far exceeding their promise for the powers that sought to control them.


Fiscal Geography

No state monetised a chokepoint more systematically in early modern history than Denmark at the Danish Straits. What began as geography became policy in 1429, when King Eric of Pomerania imposed a toll on all vessels passing through the Øresund - the narrow channel linking the North Sea to the Baltic.


The levy came to be known as the ‘Sound Dues,’ derived from “the Sound” - the English term for Øresund itself. Every ship was required to halt at Helsingør (Elsinore), declare its cargo, and pay a duty calibrated to its value. Far more than a toll, this was one of Europe’s earliest experiments in what historians have termed “fiscal geography” - the systematic conversion of location into revenue.

Map of Danish Sound Toll system
Map of Danish Sound Toll system

The results were transformative. By the 16th and 17th centuries, the dues accounted for a substantial share (at times nearly two-thirds) of the Danish crown’s income. They financed fortifications, sustained naval power and elevated a middling kingdom into a pivotal Baltic actor. Grain from Poland, timber from Scandinavia and naval stores from Russia all passed through the Danish Straits.


Yet success bred intense friction between rival European powers. The Dutch Republic, whose commercial lifeblood depended on Baltic access, resisted both diplomatically and militarily. Sweden, rising to great-power status in the 17th century, contested Danish dominance in a series of Northern Wars. The Treaty of Brömsebro (1645) and subsequent settlements chipped away at the universality of the dues, weakening their fiscal logic.


By the early 19th century, the system had become strategically intolerable to other rising powers. During the Napoleonic Wars, Britain, fearing that Napoleon Bonaparte might gain control of the Danish fleet and with it influence over the Baltic approaches, launched the Bombardment of Copenhagen in 1807, a pre-emptive strike aimed as much at a chokepoint regime as at a state.

Danish Sound Dues
Danish Sound Dues

The Copenhagen Convention of 1857 finally abolished the Sound Dues under international pressure. But this was achieved at great cost to other powers and Denmark itself.


Strategic Limits

If Denmark represented the fiscal exploitation of chokepoints, Malta illustrated its strategic limits. Perched between Sicily and North Africa, the island has long served as a pivot in the central Mediterranean. During the Great Siege of 1565, the Knights Hospitaller had repelled an Ottoman armada, demonstrating how a fortified node could blunt imperial expansion.


Yet Malta’s later history under British rule offers a completely different lesson. As a base during the Napoleonic Wars and a linchpin of imperial communications thereafter, Malta was indispensable but never quite sufficient to guarantee British control of Mediterranean Sea lanes. It functioned as part of a chain of the British Empire along with Gibraltar to the west and Suez to the east. During the Second World War, this dependency became stark as Axis forces subjected the island to relentless siege, nearly starving it into submission. Between 1940 and 1942, Malta endured one of the heaviest sustained bombing campaigns of the war, with German and Italian aircraft seeking to neutralise it as a British base.

Malta Convoys, 1942
Malta Convoys, 1942

Its survival depended on a series of hazardous convoy operations mounted by the Royal Navy - most notably Operation Pedestal (August 1942), alongside earlier efforts such as Operations Harpoon and Vigorous. Losses were severe as carriers were damaged, cruisers were sunk and merchant ships destroyed in significant numbers.


Malta, a chokepoint base, completely consumed British power, demanding a continuous expenditure of ships, matériel and lives to remain operational.

 

Geometry of Defence

Long before modern naval theory pioneered by the likes of A.T. Mahan, the Eastern Roman Empire or Byzantium had well understood what narrow waters could do. The Bosporus and the Dardanelles were engineered as instruments of denial by successive Byzantine emperors.

 

Constantinople’s layered defensive system - most famously its landward Theodosian Walls, complemented by numerous towers, signalling networks and the chain across the Golden Horn, transformed its geography into a lethal defensive weapon against its numerous adversaries.


Naval manuals attributed to Byzantine emperors like Leo VI ‘The Wise’ emphasised manoeuvrability, coordination with shore-based defences and the calibrated use of incendiaries.

 

As chroniclers like Anna Komnene observed, fleets entering the narrows found themselves trapped by the very environment as currents worked against them, space constrained manoeuvre and missiles rained from both shores. The straits multiplied defensive power in a way open seas could not.

 

By the early 20th century, technological optimism revived the belief that chokepoints could be forced. Admiral Jackie Fisher had revolutionised the Royal Navy, and a generation of planners assumed that speed and firepower could crack ancient gates. Modern battleships, it was assumed, could overwhelm static defences.

Second Arab Siege of Constantinople, 717 CE
Second Arab Siege of Constantinople, 717 CE

However, the Gallipoli Campaign of 1915 brutally exposed fallacy. Today, that campaign is the most frequently invoked historical analogy amid speculation of the U.S. attempting to land troops to seize Kharg.

 

In 1915, British planners, encouraged by an overconfident Winston Churchill, believed that forcing open the Dardanelles strait - a narrow waterway whose control promised the opening of a route to Russia, and the seizure of Constantinople, thereby knocking the Ottoman Empire (allied with Wilhelmine Germany) out of the war.

 

Instead, it became a sorry case study in strategic overreach which cost 250,000 Allied casualties - including heavy losses among British, French, Australian and New Zealand forces. The Ottomans, under commanders such as Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, exploited the terrain and interior lines to devastating effect. Allied forces, once landed, found themselves trapped between sea and ridge, unable to advance and unwilling to retreat.

 

Fisher himself grew sceptical as the operation unfolded, wary of committing capital ships to a geometry that favoured the defender. The intended decisive stroke had transformed into a nightmarish stalemate, ending in withdrawal and humiliation for the British.


The enduring allure of chokepoints lies in their deceptive clarity. They promise leverage over complex systems and suggest that control can be localised, decisive and swift.


Yet, History points in another direction. Chokepoints invite fierce contestation precisely because they matter. They justify evermore escalation and impose sustained costs on those who seek to dominate them.


From the Øresund to the Dardanelles, the lesson that recurs with stubborn consistency is that while narrow waters magnify power, they magnify its burdens too.


Whether that lesson will temper the feverish calculations now deliberated in Washington remains, as ever, uncertain.

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