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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Poriborton!

BJP candidate for Bhabanipur and Nandigram constituencies Suvendu Adhikari, who defeated West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the prestigious Bhabanipur seat, shows a certificate of election on Monday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: The Bengali word “Poriborton” translates to profound change. While it was initially fiercely utilized as the central battle cry for the assembly elections in West Bengal, the final tally from all five state elections reveals that the spirit of the word has swept across...

Poriborton!

BJP candidate for Bhabanipur and Nandigram constituencies Suvendu Adhikari, who defeated West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the prestigious Bhabanipur seat, shows a certificate of election on Monday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: The Bengali word “Poriborton” translates to profound change. While it was initially fiercely utilized as the central battle cry for the assembly elections in West Bengal, the final tally from all five state elections reveals that the spirit of the word has swept across the entire nation. The recent electoral outcomes have fundamentally rewritten the established rules of Indian democracy. From a massive anti-incumbency wave overturning fifteen years of rule in Bengal, to a political novice shattering a six-decade Dravidian stronghold in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress-led alliance successfully dislodging the incumbent Left in Kerala, the electorate has delivered a highly decisive mandate. Alongside sweeping consolidations of power in Assam and Puducherry, these results collectively disrupt historical traditions and reshape the national political landscape for years to come. Titan Toppled In West Bengal, the call for Poribartan finally resonated with enough force to bring down a formidable political fortress. A relentless anti-incumbency wave has overturned Mamata Banerjee’s fifteen-year rule. For a decade and a half, the Trinamool Congress maintained an iron grip on the state’s narrative, having previously ousted the Left Front on the very same promise of sweeping change. The defeat of the incumbent government signifies a monumental shift in the political psychology of Bengal. The electorate, driven by an urgent desire for a new direction, has dismantled a deeply entrenched political machine. This result forces a complete recalibration of power dynamics in eastern India, leaving a massive political vacuum that victorious forces will now rush to fill, fundamentally altering the governance trajectory of the state. Duopoly Shattered Equally seismic is the political earthquake that has struck Tamil Nadu. For six decades, the state’s political arena was fiercely guarded by a seemingly unbreakable Dravidian duopoly, with power alternating predictably between established giants. However, the emergence of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by cinema icon Thalapathy Vijay, has dismantled this historical dominance. By emerging as the single-largest party in the assembly count, the TVK has achieved what generations of politicians deemed impossible. This is not merely a change in government but a profound cultural and political revolution. The voters of Tamil Nadu have overwhelmingly opted for a fresh narrative, proving that star power coupled with an untested political promise can still upend deeply rooted ideological empires, ushering in an entirely new era of leadership. Absolute Dominance Meanwhile, the political landscape in the Northeast has witnessed a different kind of decisive mandate. In Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has not only retained power but has emerged significantly stronger, securing a third consecutive term. This victory effectively cements an aggressive regional hegemony and signals the near-total ouster of the Congress party from Assam’s mainstream politics. The result brings an ironclad continuity to the state, allowing the incumbent administration to push forward its agenda without any formidable legislative friction, while leaving the state’s oldest party desperately searching for political relevance. Pendulum Swings In Kerala, the electorate has delivered a decisive blow to the incumbent Left Democratic Front. The Congress-led United Democratic Front has successfully dislodged the government, claiming a vital victory in a state renowned for its fiercely contested, oscillating elections. This resurgence of the UDF injects critical new life into the state’s Congress machinery, drastically altering the governance model in Kerala. The outcome firmly proves that the traditional pendulum of Kerala politics still possesses the momentum to swing back fiercely against the incumbent, denying the Left a continued and uninterrupted grip on power. Comfortable Continuity Further down the coast in Puducherry, the mandate favored stability within a rapidly changing national map. The National Democratic Alliance government, led by the AINRC, comfortably secured its return to power. This victory ensures that the NDA maintains a crucial administrative foothold in the southern union territory, providing a steady anchor for its regional allies amid the broader national churn. When viewed collectively, these independent state results weave a complex tapestry that will inevitably reshape national politics. The fall of towering regional satraps in West Bengal and the disruption of the historic Dravidian stronghold in Tamil Nadu indicate a national electorate that is deeply restless and entirely unafraid to discard legacy systems. For the national opposition, the revival in Kerala offers a much-needed glimmer of hope, though it is heavily overshadowed by the existential crisis they face in Assam. The spectacular rise of new regional entities introduces a fresh, highly unpredictable variable into the national coalition arithmetic ahead of future general elections. Ultimately, the political center of gravity has fundamentally shifted, proving that “Poribartan” is no longer just a localized slogan, but the defining new reality of the country.

Gaza’s Water Wars Amid Trump’s Peace Gambit

Without secure access to clean water, even the most ambitious ceasefire will be little more than a cease-fire.

Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump announced what he calls a ‘breakthrough’ in Gaza’s interminable war. The framework for an agreement between Israel and Hamas for the first phase of a peace deal includes a ceasefire, release of hostages, withdrawal of Israeli forces to a mutually agreed line and the opening of humanitarian aid channels. These developments foster cautious hope that more than just violence might be halted. But lurking beneath the headlines is an even more intractable crisis that may determine whether any future peace will hold. That is Gaza’s water system, which is presently dead on its feet.


Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth, squeezed between Israel, Egypt, and the sea. Its main source of fresh water, the coastal aquifer, has been degraded by decades of overuse and by saltwater intrusion. Much of the water that does reach people is polluted by untreated sewage.


Breaking point

The war that reopened in October 2023 has pushed this system past its breaking point. Fuel shortages driven by blockades and border restrictions have crippled desalination plants, pumping stations, wastewater treatment, and sewage networks. Reports show that over 85 percent of Gaza’s water and sanitation infrastructure is now either damaged or in partial disrepair.


For most Gazans, access to clean water has fallen far below even the bare minimum. Estimates range from only 3-5 litres per day per person for drinking and basic cooking needs. That is a fraction of the World Health Organization’s emergency benchmark of 15 litres. Meanwhile, nearly 96 percent of groundwater is deemed undrinkable, whether because of salinity, chemical pollution or sewage contamination.


Water in Gaza is not just a tool of survival. It has become a bargaining chip, a tool of coercion. The supply lines from Mekorot (Israel’s utility) once supplied up to 70 percent of Gaza City’s needs. But the damage to those pipelines in the ongoing war and the numerous blockades have sharply reduced that share.


To control water is to control life, or at least to make survival dependent on others. For any peace plan to take root, negotiators must somehow guarantee not just a ceasefire or a troop withdrawal, but reliable and sustainable access to water, power, fuel, and repair of broken infrastructure.


The articles and statements emerging from recent negotiations suggest that Trump’s deal includes a phased Israeli withdrawal, hostage exchanges and perhaps an interim governance mechanism for Gaza under international supervision. But governance over water and infrastructure has so far received scant public detail.


Perilous existence

Critics warn that unless control over fuel supply, electricity, and access for reconstruction is explicitly addressed, water access will remain unstable. If Gaza’s desalination plants cannot run, if its wells have no power, if its sewage cannot be treated and if transmission pipelines are unusable, then its daily survival will still depend heavily on external aid.


Needless to say, humanitarian urgency is paramount at the moment. Disease, malnutrition and death will not wait for diplomacy. Tens of thousands already face life-threatening shortages, and unsafe water spreads cholera, typhoid, and other preventable illnesses. Any peace deal that fails to deliver essentials - clean water, sanitation, electricity - is unlikely to be accepted by Gaza’s population, and hollow peace will further breed resentment and instability. Control over water provides leverage not only for humanitarian relief but also for regional influence; the U.S., Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and others can shape the balance of power depending on who oversees infrastructure, aid flows and utilities.


Scarcity of water is a proven catalyst for conflict, and in Gaza, water could either spark renewed hostilities or serve as the fragile anchor holding peace together.


For peace to endure, fuel and electricity for water and sanitation infrastructure must be guaranteed, because without power, desalination plants, pumps, and treatment works cannot meet daily needs.


Repair and protection of pipelines, wells, and sewage systems must be prioritised, with existing damage not only fixed but safeguarded against further disruption, and technicians, materials, and shipping granted safe and sustained access. Governance of water services must be transparent and accountable. An interim body, if agreed upon, should include water experts and ensure neutral oversight of tariffs, maintenance, and supply chains. Reliable cross-border and international aid flows are critical, with spare parts, chemicals, and generators reaching Gaza without interruption, and logistical agreements structured to survive diplomatic breakdowns. Finally, monitoring and accountability mechanisms must be in place, including independent audits of water quality and infrastructure integrity to guarantee transparency and prevent failures from being hidden or ignored.


Trump’s recent announcement of a first-phase Gaza peace deal is a first step in what has turned into the most violent conflict of our times. Yet, unless water systems are front and centre, the deal risks being undone by what it fails to deliver, rather than affirmed by what it wins.


For its longevity, any proposed peace deal in Gaza must grapple with pipes as much as politics.


(The author is a Mumbai-based educator and an expert on the Indus Waters Treaty. Views personal.)

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