Great Expectations

Tarique Rahman’s swearing-in as Bangladesh’s Prime Minister comes at a time when the country’s relations with India have never been more brittle. His ascent as PM marks the return of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) after years in the wilderness and the re-entry of a dynastic heir after 17 years in exile. Of all the nations in region, India’s eyes will particularly be on Rahman, given that Bangladesh has drifted strategically, politically and economically since the collapse of the old order in 2024.

At 60, Rahman becomes Bangladesh’s first male prime minister in over three decades, inheriting a political lineage forged by his parents - Khaleda Zia and the late Ziaur Rahman - but facing a landscape far less forgiving than the one they once dominated. The BNP’s landslide victory in February’s elections, securing a majority on its own and 212 seats with allies, masks a deeper unease in form of the rise of radical Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami as the second-largest force in parliament. This, coupled with the barring of the Awami League following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, have narrowed Bangladesh’s political centre at precisely the wrong time.

Rahman’s first challenge is to urgently reset Bangladesh’s relations with India. Bangladesh’s prosperity, connectivity and security are inseparable from India’s goodwill, whether in trade, transit, power-sharing or counter-terrorism. Resetting ties is not merely a favour to New Delhi but an act of self-interest for Dhaka as well.

That reset must begin with a frank recognition of history. Bangladesh’s independence in 1971 was secured with decisive Indian military and diplomatic support. While gratitude need not mean subservience, Bangladesh’s amnesia – as has been seen in the rise of radical Islamist forces and the daily atrocities against the Hindu minority there - would be strategic folly. A BNP leadership that signals maturity by dampening the reflexive anti-India rhetoric and institutionalising cooperation – both absent during the caretaker Mohd. Yunus regime - would reassure investors and neighbours alike that Bangladesh is stepping back from the brink.

The second challenge is internal, and more delicate. Jamaat-e-Islami’s parliamentary strength gives it leverage, but not a mandate to reshape the republic. Rahman cannot afford the ambiguities that plagued earlier BNP governments, when tolerance of Islamist allies bled into indulgence of extremism. Containing Jamaat firmly, legally and visibly will be the clearest test of whether his government is a conservative nationalist one, or a vehicle for ideological drift.

The period under the Yunus caretaker regime has left Bangladesh’s economy weaker, its institutions in tatters and its politics unresolved. Regulatory drift, policy hesitation and a vacuum of authority have eroded confidence. Rahman thus inherits a downward slide that must be arrested quickly.

Rahman has been handed power at a moment when choices, not slogans, will define the country’s trajectory. If he resets Bangladesh’s ties with India, reins in the extremists and restores economic direction, then the country may yet reclaim its promise. But any equivocation or ideological indulgence would squander it.