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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

‘Grooming Gangs’ and Britain’s Institutional Blind Spot

Updated: Jan 22, 2025

grooming gangs

The term ‘grooming gangs’ encompasses a range of criminal activity, from online grooming networks to organised groups where grooming is one aspect of broader delinquency. In 2023, police data revealed that 4,228 of the 1.15 lakh reported child sexual offences in the UK (3.7 percent) were group-based, with 17 percent involving grooming gangs. A task force launched by then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in April 2023 to tackle grooming gangs arrested over 550 suspects in its first year. However, the issue remains contentious. In January, Interior Minister Yvette Cooper announced a nationwide review and five local inquiries into grooming gang evidence, reversing earlier resistance to a national inquiry.


The controversy recently escalated when Elon Musk, through X, highlighted grooming gangs, sparking accusations of politicising the issue. High-profile cases involving groups of predominantly Pakistani men convicted of abusing young white girls continue to fuel public debate, exposing gaps in safeguarding and accountability.


Grooming gangs operate systematically across the UK, targeting mostly underage girls through calculated methods. Men running takeaways or driving taxis often exploit their networks to prey on vulnerable girls out late at night, luring them with promises of luxury, money and designer goods. Many victims are deceived into exploitative relationships framed as romantic, which often lead to sexual abuse. The pattern frequently includes introducing the girls to drugs and alcohol, furthering their dependency. Psychological manipulation and intimidation trap them in cycles of exploitation.


Among the worst cases were gangs functioning in the northern towns of Rochdale and Rotherham, but a number of others have been exposed around the country over the last 15 years in several towns and cities: Telford, Oldham, Peterborough, Keighley, Oxford and others.


For decades, evidence of child sexual abuse in Telford was ignored, leaving over 1,000 girls to be exploited. Authorities, shockingly, often blamed victims rather than perpetrators, while concerns about race deterred investigations. The abuse, ongoing since the 1980s, has been only partially addressed.

In 2012, Operation Chalice led to the conviction of seven men for sexually abusing girls as young as 13. In 2020, Operation Vapour resulted in the convictions of four more men in Telford: Mohammed Ali Sultan, Mohammad Rizwan, Shafiq Younas and Amjad Hussain. These cases underscore a long-standing failure to protect vulnerable minors.


In Oldham, a 2019 council-commissioned review delved into the role of shisha bars, taxi companies and children’s homes in the sexual abuse of minors. The name of Shabir Ahmed, the ringleader of a notorious grooming gang, stood out as he had once been employed as a welfare rights officer by Oldham Council.


The review also cited earlier investigations into grooming, including Operation Helena 2 in 2006, which responded to concerns about exploitation at a local school, and Operation Messenger, a police-led initiative aimed at preventing child sexual abuse in the area. However, survivors have criticized the scope of the review, calling for a deeper inquiry into historical abuse cases, arguing that their experiences were sidelined. In January, the home secretary ordered a review of grooming gang evidence and announced five additional local inquiries, underscoring persistent failings in tackling this grievous issue.


Rotherham gained renewed attention on January 1, 2025, when Musk highlighted the town’s grooming gangs. Between 1997 and 2013, 1,400 children were raped, beaten, trafficked and even burnt alive. An inquiry led by Professor Alexis Jay found that most perpetrators were of Pakistani origin, exposing institutional failures and widespread neglect.


Operation Stovewood, investigating abuse in Rotherham during this period, led to the conviction of seven men—Mohammed Amar, Mohammed Siyab, Yasser Ajaibe, Mohammed Zameer Sadiq, Abid Saddiq, Tahir Yassin, and Ramin Bari—who received a combined total of 106 years in prison. They lured victims with cigarettes, alcohol, and money before subjecting them to sexual assault and rape, leaving victims silenced through fear and psychological coercion.


For years, vulnerable girls in Rochdale were left at the mercy of grooming gangs as police and council officials turned a blind eye to rape and abuse, unwilling to confront the scale of the crime. A 173-page report into Operation Span, a much-criticised investigation, reviewed cases from 2004 to 2013. Commissioned by Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, it identified 96 men still deemed a risk to children and found that of 111 cases examined, 74 showed evidence of exploitation, with serious failures in 48 instances.


The scandal first came to light in 2012, revealing that authorities had long ignored abuse rings, primarily involving Pakistani men. That year, nine men were sentenced to between four and 19 years, followed by another nine convictions in 2016. The revelations laid bare systemic neglect and a reluctance to act.


In 2020, an independent review uncovered a harrowing failure of duty in Manchester, where dozens of teenage girls, allegedly groomed and sexually abused by groups of predominantly Pakistani men, were abandoned by the very institutions meant to protect them. The review revealed that authorities, wary of unsettling the city’s delicate race relations, hesitated to pursue a comprehensive investigation.


The report spurred Operation Green Jacket launched in May 2019 to revisit allegations of grooming in south Manchester during 2004-2005—an earlier probe, shamefully halted due to “resource constraints.” Since then, police have arrested 64 suspects, though the shadow of institutional neglect still looms.


Law enforcement authorities and community leaders must summon the moral and political courage to decisively address these crimes and remedy systemic failures, eschewing excuses and half-measures. Policymakers must shed political posturing in favour of meaningful reforms. For the survivors, justice demands not only accountability but the harshest consequences for perpetrators to deter future atrocities.


(The author is a research fellow at the Institute of Conflict Management, Delhi. Views personal)

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