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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

External involvement in Chandranath’s murder

Political and Geopolitical forces behind the killing in West Bengal New Delhi: The 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections have not only signaled a new trajectory in Indian politics but have also stirred ripples in global geopolitics. The unprecedented victory of the BJP in the state brought to light events that reveal how the long-standing cycle of political power struggles and violence is now emerging in a new form. The most alarming manifestation of this shift came late Wednesday night with...

External involvement in Chandranath’s murder

Political and Geopolitical forces behind the killing in West Bengal New Delhi: The 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections have not only signaled a new trajectory in Indian politics but have also stirred ripples in global geopolitics. The unprecedented victory of the BJP in the state brought to light events that reveal how the long-standing cycle of political power struggles and violence is now emerging in a new form. The most alarming manifestation of this shift came late Wednesday night with the murder of Chandranath Rath, personal secretary to senior BJP leader Shuvendu Adhikari. Chandranath Rath, a veteran who served 15 years in the Indian Air Force, was closely working with his family friend and senior BJP leader, Shuvendu Adhikari. His killing is more than an isolated personal attack and it signals a disturbing new dimension of political violence. Historically, electoral violence in West Bengal has targeted the workers of losing parties. This time, however, even the leaders and workers of the winning side have fallen victim. The implications of this violence extend beyond the state's borders. Following the BJP's landslide victory in West Bengal, the activity of anti-India elements in neighboring countries has intensified. Bangladesh and Pakistan have expressed concern over the party's victory, while China and the United States are also closely monitoring its implications. This highlights that election results in border states now carry geopolitical significance far beyond local politics. For decades, West Bengal and Assam have been treated as strategic zones in broader geopolitical games, with external forces allegedly attempting to maintain unrest in these regions over the past seven decades, like Jammu-Kashmir. Investigations into Chandranath Rath's murder indicate a pre-meditated conspiracy. The assailants used advanced Glock 47X firearms, suggesting that the plot was not confined to local planning alone. The crime occurred just 60 kilometers from Basirhat, near the Bangladesh border, which strengthens the likelihood of external involvement. Violent History History shows that violence and muscle power have always been intertwined with West Bengal politics. From the "Khaddo Movement" of the 1960s to slogans like "Dam Dam Dawai," political action was often synonymous with coercion, intimidation and murder. During the Left Front era, strategies like "scientific rigging," booth capture, and leveraging local goons became commonplace. Later, the Trinamool Congress inherited these structures and kept them under its control. Today's events demonstrate that this system remains alive. Border Dynamics The complexity of border areas and communal dynamics further complicates the scenario. In constituencies along the West Bengal and Assam borders, Muslim candidates secured victories, while regions adjacent to West Bengal in Bangladesh are represented by members of Jamaat-e-Islami. Groups like Jamaat-e-Islami have long pursued anti-India agendas, and their influence can be seen in electoral outcomes across these areas. The BJP's recent victory, and the violence that ensued, draw attention to geopolitics. The President of the United States congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marking an unprecedented acknowledgment of a state-level BJP win. In contrast, Pakistani and Bangladeshi media have reacted with alarm, while discussions in Bangladesh's parliament highlight concern for the Muslim communities in these regions. Local outbreaks of violence further underline that West Bengal is no longer merely a domestic political theatre, however, this is a hub of geopolitical activity, where external forces seek to keep unstable and chaotic. This cycle of political violence extends beyond individual acts. It has become a complex mix of administrative inefficiency, local political rivalry, and external interference. The immediate presence of DGP Siddh Nath Gupta and CRPF DG Gyanendra Pratap Singh at the crime scene underscores the gravity of the situation. Chandranath Rath's murder is not merely a personal tragedy but a broader political and societal security challenge. The events echo the 1970s when Naxalism emerged in West Bengal, eventually spreading across India's "Red Corridor." Rath's assassination makes it clear that politics in West Bengal is no longer limited to electoral competition or local governance. The incident lays bare the intertwined realities of political violence, international geopolitics, and social security concerns. If the current trends continue, West Bengal may evolve into a region sensitive not only to national politics but also to global strategic interests.

How Forensics Are Decoding Deadly Stampedes

The 1989 Hillsborough disaster in the UK marked the beginning of stampede forensics using video analysis and eyewitness accounts, an approach that has since evolved to include AI and 3D simulations.

Forensic investigation of stampedes is the scientific study of crowd dynamics, structural design, and human behaviour to uncover the causes behind deadly crowd surges. It combines analysis of video footage, physical evidence, and digital modelling to reconstruct events and identify what went wrong. Investigations delve into the movements of people, the failure of infrastructure, and gaps in planning and response systems. By decoding these patterns, forensic experts help ensure accountability and improve future safety.


The roots of a stampede investigation trace back to the mid-20th century, when researchers began studying crowd control more seriously following major tragedies. A turning point came after the 1989 Hillsborough disaster in the UK, which claimed 96 lives at a football stadium, marking one of the first times forensic tools, like video analysis, architectural studies, and crowd behaviour reconstruction, was used comprehensively to determine the causes of such an event.


With modern technology, stampede investigation has evolved into a precise forensic discipline. Analysts today rely on tools like CCTV analytics, drone surveillance, crowd simulation software, and AI-powered behaviour recognition. These technologies provide real-time and post-incident data on how panic spreads and what triggers it.


The forensic teams were immediately called in for the recent stampede incident at a major railway station in India. Surveillance footage, mobile recordings, and eyewitness accounts were collected. Broken sandals, crushed bags, and twisted railings were documented as physical evidence. Using 3D modelling, investigators recreated the event to visualise the choke point—a narrow bridge overwhelmed by a sudden crowd surge. The simulation revealed a critical lack of crowd flow management and poor public announcements, which contributed to the panic.


Similar approaches were applied during the 2017 Elphinstone Bridge stampede in Mumbai, where investigators digitally reconstructed the chaos caused by sudden rainfall and overcrowding.


Their findings emphasised the importance of clear signage, unidirectional movement paths, and responsive emergency teams. Globally, such techniques were also used in the 2010 Love Parade in Germany and the 1989 Hillsborough disaster in the UK. In both cases, forensic crowd analysis identified poor design and delayed response as leading causes.


In India, temple festivals have also seen tragic stampedes. In the 2013 Ratangarh Temple incident, forensic investigators traced the deadly panic to a false rumour about a collapsing bridge. The crowd's behaviour, analysed through video evidence and on-ground debris patterns, showed a catastrophic failure in crowd control and emergency preparedness. Each of these investigations has contributed to a growing database of crowd behaviours under stress, which now feeds predictive AI tools.


Technology continues to transform forensic stampede investigations. AI systems can now monitor crowd density and movement in real-time, sounding alerts when thresholds are breached. Thermal cameras track body heat signatures to monitor crowd flow, while drones provide wide-area visuals of congested zones. Advanced software analyses human posture and movement patterns, helping identify signs of distress before a surge begins.


Investigations now influence legal action, with courts using forensic evidence to hold authorities accountable. Following the recent railway incident, the High Court directed the stopping of ticket overselling, improving public information systems, and filing a detailed safety audit. Similarly, after the 2013 Madhya Pradesh stampede, the Supreme Court mandated stricter crowd control.


Forensic investigation of stampedes, once limited to basic incident reviews, has now transformed into a robust and evolving science. From its early beginnings in stadiums and temples to its adoption of artificial intelligence and 3D simulations, the discipline has become a cornerstone of modern public safety planning. The use of these advanced tools allows investigators not just to explain what went wrong but to forecast where failures may occur and stop tragedies before they happen.


(Dr. Kumar is a retired IPS officer and forensic advisor to the Assam Government. Bhowmik is a student of National Forensic University, Guwahati.)

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