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By:

C.S. Krishnamurthy

21 June 2025 at 2:15:51 pm

Risk Refines Returns

An anxious investor entered his adviser’s office, clutching a file of stock charts. He was convinced he had found the perfect moment to enter the market. His plan was to wait for the precise dip, jump in, make quick gains and exit smartly. The adviser smiled gently, the way a teacher smiles at a student who thinks the syllabus ends with the first chapter, and began narrating a small tale that has stayed with me for long. He spoke of two farmers. One sowed seeds as the monsoon clouds gathered,...

Risk Refines Returns

An anxious investor entered his adviser’s office, clutching a file of stock charts. He was convinced he had found the perfect moment to enter the market. His plan was to wait for the precise dip, jump in, make quick gains and exit smartly. The adviser smiled gently, the way a teacher smiles at a student who thinks the syllabus ends with the first chapter, and began narrating a small tale that has stayed with me for long. He spoke of two farmers. One sowed seeds as the monsoon clouds gathered, tended the soil, and trusted sun, rain, and time. The other waited on a hilltop for the perfect cloud, believing precision mattered more than action. He kept climbing, analysing patterns. When the rains finally came, the first had green shoots breaking the earth. The second had only reasons. The adviser paused and said markets behave similarly: prepare early, stay invested, and let time do the real work. This simple story captures a truth that investors often forget. Most people desire higher returns, but very few want the risk that accompanies those returns. In wealth management, the principle remains constant across decades: high return requires high risk, low risk brings low return. What separates successful investors from frustrated ones is not luck or timing, but the ability to align risk, return and time horizon with the purpose of money. Risk Realities Consider a parent whose child’s college fees are due next year. A rising equity market may look attractive, but it is the wrong choice for such near-term needs. Even a small correction can upset careful plans. Here, safety matters more than growth because the goal is fixed and non-negotiable. Now contrast this with a young professional in her twenties avoiding equity due to fear of volatility. Ironically, she takes the bigger risk. By shunning growth assets, she risks losing future purchasing power. For her, time is a powerful ally that cushions volatility and rewards patience. Wealth planning begins with understanding three elements. The first is risk capacity. This is the financial ability to take risk. It depends on income, savings, liabilities and, most importantly, time horizon. A thirty-year window offers room for market ups and downs. A one-year window does not. When capacity is misunderstood, investors either become too aggressive or unduly conservative. The second is risk attitude. This has nothing to do with spreadsheets, and everything to do with psychology. Some investors can see their portfolio fall twenty pc and continue sleeping peacefully. Others panic if their units fall two pc. Knowing one’s emotional bandwidth is vital. A perfect portfolio is useless if the investor abandons it during the first storm. Behavioural finance teaches us that panic selling, not market decline, destroyed long-term wealth. Balancing fear and greed matter. The third is investment need. This is often ignored because investors chase returns without asking what return is actually required to achieve their goals. If a goal needs nine pc annual growth, why chase fourteen pc with twice the risk. When all three elements align, portfolios stop being products and begin to act as strategic tools that move families closer to their life outcomes. Purpose Planning Remember, risk is not a bad word, nor an enemy to fear, but a knife to be handled wisely. In skilled hands, it slices food, and in a surgeon’s care, heals bodies with precision. In careless use, it wounds deeply. When aligned with goals and time, risk builds wealth. Long-term investing lies in respecting its sharp edge and using it with patience and discipline. In the end, the adviser reminded the anxious investor that the greatest financial risk is not volatility, but a portfolio that does not match its purpose. Timing the market might offer a few lucky victories, but time in the market builds lasting wealth. Seeds grow not because the farmer predicts rain, but because he plants them early and let nature work. That lesson holds for every investor. Goal setting, disciplined risk alignment and the patience to let compounding work turn uncertainties into opportunities. Wealth is not created by chasing returns, but by respecting time.  If you are ready to follow discipline in investment, risk can turn into opportunity. (The writer is a retired banker and author of ‘Money Does Matter.’ Views personal.)

How Forensics Are Decoding Deadly Stampedes

The 1989 Hillsborough disaster in the UK marked the beginning of stampede forensics using video analysis and eyewitness accounts, an approach that has since evolved to include AI and 3D simulations.

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Forensic investigation of stampedes is the scientific study of crowd dynamics, structural design, and human behaviour to uncover the causes behind deadly crowd surges. It combines analysis of video footage, physical evidence, and digital modelling to reconstruct events and identify what went wrong. Investigations delve into the movements of people, the failure of infrastructure, and gaps in planning and response systems. By decoding these patterns, forensic experts help ensure accountability and improve future safety.


The roots of a stampede investigation trace back to the mid-20th century, when researchers began studying crowd control more seriously following major tragedies. A turning point came after the 1989 Hillsborough disaster in the UK, which claimed 96 lives at a football stadium, marking one of the first times forensic tools, like video analysis, architectural studies, and crowd behaviour reconstruction, was used comprehensively to determine the causes of such an event.


With modern technology, stampede investigation has evolved into a precise forensic discipline. Analysts today rely on tools like CCTV analytics, drone surveillance, crowd simulation software, and AI-powered behaviour recognition. These technologies provide real-time and post-incident data on how panic spreads and what triggers it.


The forensic teams were immediately called in for the recent stampede incident at a major railway station in India. Surveillance footage, mobile recordings, and eyewitness accounts were collected. Broken sandals, crushed bags, and twisted railings were documented as physical evidence. Using 3D modelling, investigators recreated the event to visualise the choke point—a narrow bridge overwhelmed by a sudden crowd surge. The simulation revealed a critical lack of crowd flow management and poor public announcements, which contributed to the panic.


Similar approaches were applied during the 2017 Elphinstone Bridge stampede in Mumbai, where investigators digitally reconstructed the chaos caused by sudden rainfall and overcrowding.


Their findings emphasised the importance of clear signage, unidirectional movement paths, and responsive emergency teams. Globally, such techniques were also used in the 2010 Love Parade in Germany and the 1989 Hillsborough disaster in the UK. In both cases, forensic crowd analysis identified poor design and delayed response as leading causes.


In India, temple festivals have also seen tragic stampedes. In the 2013 Ratangarh Temple incident, forensic investigators traced the deadly panic to a false rumour about a collapsing bridge. The crowd's behaviour, analysed through video evidence and on-ground debris patterns, showed a catastrophic failure in crowd control and emergency preparedness. Each of these investigations has contributed to a growing database of crowd behaviours under stress, which now feeds predictive AI tools.


Technology continues to transform forensic stampede investigations. AI systems can now monitor crowd density and movement in real-time, sounding alerts when thresholds are breached. Thermal cameras track body heat signatures to monitor crowd flow, while drones provide wide-area visuals of congested zones. Advanced software analyses human posture and movement patterns, helping identify signs of distress before a surge begins.


Investigations now influence legal action, with courts using forensic evidence to hold authorities accountable. Following the recent railway incident, the High Court directed the stopping of ticket overselling, improving public information systems, and filing a detailed safety audit. Similarly, after the 2013 Madhya Pradesh stampede, the Supreme Court mandated stricter crowd control.


Forensic investigation of stampedes, once limited to basic incident reviews, has now transformed into a robust and evolving science. From its early beginnings in stadiums and temples to its adoption of artificial intelligence and 3D simulations, the discipline has become a cornerstone of modern public safety planning. The use of these advanced tools allows investigators not just to explain what went wrong but to forecast where failures may occur and stop tragedies before they happen.


(Dr. Kumar is a retired IPS officer and forensic advisor to the Assam Government. Bhowmik is a student of National Forensic University, Guwahati.)

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