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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

How Modi’s Visit Could Be A Game Changer for Trade?

Updated: Feb 18, 2025

Modi

The most awaited meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump that took place on February 13, 2025 primarily focused on Trade, Defense ties, AI and space exploration. The key highlights of the meeting were primarily- India-US launch mission 500 for a double bi-lateral trade in 2030, Defense ties, F35 Fighter Jet deal, Space Exploration and AI cooperation.


What is India-US mission 500?

It is an ambitious project chalked out by both the countries with an aim to double the bi-lateral trade between India and the United States to $ billion by 2030. Reports highlighted that Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri emphasized Mission-500, which seeks to elevate bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030. Addressing a press conference, Misri said, “The two leaders have jointly launched the US-India Compact for the 21st Century to foster deeper collaboration in defense, trade, and technology. In the area of trade and investment, Mission-500 has been introduced to more than double total two-way trade to USD 500 billion by 2030.” He further said, “Additionally, the leaders unveiled plans to establish a new 10-year framework for the US-India Major Defence Partnership, spanning from 2025 to 2035.”


The mission focuses on several key areas, including, identifying and eliminating trade barriers to facilitate smoother transactions, promoting investment opportunities, encouraging investments in key sectors such as technology, energy, and manufacturing. Establishing joint working groups to address trade challenges and opportunities, and fostering collaboration in emerging sectors like digital economy and clean energy are also of top focus.


The successful execution of Mission 500 is expected to yield significant benefits, including increased job creation and economic growth in both countries, enhanced technological exchange and innovation, and strengthened geopolitical ties and strategic partnership.


Both leaders acknowledged existing trade tensions and expressed a commitment to resolving them. While President Trump called for the need to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with India by increasing American energy exports, Prime Minister Modi pledged to double bilateral trade by 2030. Both agreed to work towards finalizing segments of a trade deal by fall 2025.


Another important announcement that came was from Trump regarding the extradition of Tahawwur Hussain Rana, implicated in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, to India. Trump expressed willingness to support the extradition. Besides, Prime Minister Modi assured the return of Indian citizens residing illegally in the U.S.


What is the F-35 fighter jet deal?

The F-35 fighterjet deal refers to the procurement of the Lockhead Martin F-35 Lightning II by various countries. The deal involves the purchase of F-35 aircraft, munitions, and related equipment. During their recent meeting, Modi and Trump discussed enhancing defense cooperation between the two nations. Trump announced plans to increase military sales to India, including the potential provision of F-35 stealth fighter jets. These are among the most advanced fighter jets globally featuring stealth capabilities and cutting-edge avionics. If acquired, it would significantly bolster India’s air combat capabilities.


Space Exploration and AI cooperation

Several key announcements were made including the US-India TRUST initiative which is a road map for AI infrastructure, and the INDUS Innovation platform to foster partnerships in defence, space and energy. According to the official statement, the leaders hailed 2025 as a pioneering year for US-India civil space cooperation with plans for a NASA-ISRO effort through AXIOM, to bring the first Indian astronaut to the International space station. It also mentioned a likely early launch of the joint NISAR mission, which will be the first of its kind to systematically map changes to the earth’s surface using dual radars.


Echoing US President Donald Trump’s agenda at the White House, Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced his vision of Make India Great Again, reiterating his tough stand that just like Trump, New Delhi is also firm on keeping the national interest on the top priority. The statement came when both the world leaders addressed a joint press conference on Thursday Feb 14, after their meeting got concluded in Washington DC.


Lastly, another key highlight was the reciprocal tariffs. Trump recently announced that he proposes to answer foreign import taxes on US goods with rates equal to what each country imposes. Trump has since long been expressing his disappointment over India for its high tariff rate on foreign goods. Reports highlight that on some occasions he even called PM Modi the “king of tariffs”. However, after the meeting, both Trump and Modi announced they would follow up on a strategy for enhancing cooperation on the issue.

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