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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Indian Green Card Holders Need Not Panic

Updated: Mar 20, 2025

Once seen as a symbol of security, the Green Card now comes with growing uncertainty and scrutiny at U.S. borders.

Indian Green Card Holders

The last few months have not been kind to most immigrants who travelled to the United States of America in search of better prospects. Right from the day President Donald Trump took charge of the USA, he dropped shocking decisions on key issues that seemed no less than surgical strikes. Most Indians who had NRI relatives residing in the USA with legitimate documents were not worried up until now. However, recent media reports claim that Indian Green Card holders are experiencing increasing scrutiny and expulsion threats; experts have pointed out that people who are legally residing in the US and have not engaged in any anti-US activities have nothing to worry about. Mumbai-based Overseas Visa Consultant Karan Gupta said, “Notably, elderly Indian immigrants who divide their time between the U.S. and India have reported heightened inspections and, in some cases, pressure to relinquish their green cards upon re-entry. These actions underscore a shift towards stricter enforcement of residency requirements, challenging the traditional perception of permanent residency as a guarantee of stability.”


What is a green card?

A green card, also known as a permanent resident card, is an identity document that shows a person has permanent residency in the United States. Reports suggest that as of 2023, there are approximately 12.7 million green card holders, with 9 million eligible to become U.S. citizens.


Green card holders can live and work in the U.S. without restrictions, travel internationally, and return to the U.S. without issues. Green card holders can also apply for U.S. citizenship after meeting eligibility requirements. They are eligible for federal benefits, such as Social Security and Medicare. There are various types of green cards like Family-Based Green Cards which cover immediate relatives of U.S. citizens or permanent residents. Employment-based green cards cover foreign workers with specialised skills or education. The Diversity Visa Program is a lottery-based programme for individuals from countries with low immigration rates to the U.S.


Can Green Cards be revoked?

Historically, obtaining a green card has been viewed as achieving stability and security in the U.S. However, recent developments have introduced uncertainties for green card holders. Increased scrutiny at borders, especially for those spending extended periods abroad, has led to situations where individuals are questioned about their residency intentions. Gupta pointed out that even a green card can be revoked under these specific circumstances:

  • Abandonment of Residency: Spending extended periods outside the U.S. without demonstrating intent to maintain permanent residence can be interpreted as abandonment.

  • Criminal Activity: Convictions for certain crimes can lead to deportation and loss of permanent resident status.

  • Fraudulent Activities: Providing false information or engaging in fraud to obtain the green card.

  • Engaging in activities against the US

  • The Revocation Process


The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) sends a notice to the Green Card holder stating the grounds for revocation. The Green Card holder has the opportunity to respond to the notice and provide evidence to refute the grounds for revocation. If the Green Card holder responds, a hearing is scheduled before an immigration judge. The immigration judge makes a final decision on whether to revoke the green card. In case the green card holder loses the argument, the individual loses their permanent resident status and green card. The individual may also be placed in removal proceedings and deported from the USA. The individual may also be rendered ineligible for future immigration benefits, including re-entry into the USA. The individual can appeal the immigration judge's decision to the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA). If the BIA upholds the decision, the individual can appeal to a federal court.


Should senior citizens worry?

While Indian-origin Green Card holders do not have to worry, they will certainly have to be careful that they don’t engage in activities that are perceived as being against the US. However, senior citizens who usually spend the harsh winters in India have to be careful because another primary concern that is important to note is whether these individuals have maintained their permanent resident status or have effectively abandoned it by residing outside the U.S. for prolonged periods.


Indians residing in the United States have been under constant pressure since Trump took over, with the fear of their future in the country being jeopardised. From a crackdown on immigrants to birthright citizenship cancellation to now, tightened security and checks on Green Card holders. Indians have been haunted by the fear of being deported any minute despite having a valid visa or a green card that’s supposed to be one step before citizenship. While a President cannot revoke someone’s green card as quick action out of a whim, procedural changes can lead to such revocations. However, interestingly, while people give up hopes to fight it out, Gupta says, “Individuals facing visa revocations or green card cancellations should consider seeking legal counsel.”

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