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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

India and Russia: Resilient Allies in a Changing Global Landscape

India and Russia

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union forged strong ties with India, epitomized by the 1971 Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation, which laid the foundation for decades of collaboration in defence, technology and economics. The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 did not mark the end of this relationship but rather, it initiated a new phase, with both nations reaffirming their commitment to strategic cooperation.


In early 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit India at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the Kremlin confirming the visit. The visit comes at a critical time for India as it navigates the complexities of its relationships with both the West and Russia, balancing its growing defence ties with the U.S. and its historical ties with Moscow. This diplomatic engagement, from ceremonial, is part of the reciprocal annual exchanges that have become the cornerstone of India-Russia relations. The ties between the two countries have evolved significantly over the years, with Modi and Putin meeting regularly at major international events and bilateral summits, reinforcing their shared vision of cooperation in defence, energy and trade.


Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov has emphasized the frequent communications between the two leaders, noting their direct meetings and phone calls every few months. In July, Modi travelled to Moscow for the 22nd India-Russia Summit, where both leaders addressed global security, climate change, and economic realignments. Later, in October, Modi attended the BRICS summit in Kazan, further solidifying India’s role in shaping a diverse geopolitical landscape.


India’s growing role in global forums like BRICS, the SCO, and the G20 aligns with Russia’s desire for greater influence in global governance, making their bilateral relationship all the more crucial in reshaping the future of international diplomacy.


At this juncture, India-Russia relations remain among the most enduring bilateral partnerships in modern geopolitics. Rooted in mutual respect and strategic collaboration, the partnership continues to address both traditional and emerging challenges in global affairs. Putin’s 2025 visit is particularly significant, as the world grapples with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and the resurgence of power struggles. For Russia, this visit signals a determination to deepen ties with India, a key partner in the Global South, especially as Moscow faces growing isolation from the West due to its ongoing war in Ukraine.


For India, the visit presents an opportunity to assert its non-aligned foreign policy and advance its interests as a leader within global forums such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the G20. India has long managed a delicate balancing act in its foreign relations, strengthening its strategic partnership with the United States while maintaining robust ties with Russia, particularly in defence and energy security. However, the evolving proximity between Russia and China, amid Western sanctions, poses a challenge for India, given its ongoing border tensions with China. Furthermore, India’s expanding defence relationship with the U.S., exemplified by initiatives like the QUAD, remains a growing concern for Moscow. Despite the strength of their political and defence ties, bilateral trade and investment between India and Russia have been underwhelming, which limits the economic potential of their partnership.


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created diplomatic challenges for India, which has sought to balance its historical ties with Moscow while navigating its evolving relations with the West. India remains one of the largest importers of Russian defence equipment, including advanced systems like the S-400 missile defence system and nuclear-powered submarines. Joint military exercises, such as the INDRA series, further underscore the strong defence collaboration between the two nations.


Energy cooperation is another cornerstone of the India-Russia partnership. Russia has emerged as India’s top crude oil supplier in the wake of sanctions on Moscow, which have reshaped global energy markets. India is also reliant on Russian nuclear fuel, with projects like the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant symbolizing their ongoing collaboration.

Despite these strong sectors, trade relations remain relatively low, and both nations have been exploring mechanisms to enhance economic exchange, including a potential rupee-rouble exchange system designed to bypass the dominance of the U.S. dollar.


Looking forward, there are significant opportunities for collaboration in technology and space exploration, particularly through joint initiatives like India’s Gaganyaan mission with Russian assistance. Additionally, projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) could boost regional connectivity and trade, opening new avenues for cooperation.


At the heart of India and Russia’s foreign policy lies a shared history of mutual respect and a strategic vision for navigating global dynamics. Despite the challenges posed by changing geopolitical landscapes, the resilience of this relationship remains strong, anchored in their ability to adapt to emerging opportunities and global shifts. As both nations continue to navigate an increasingly complex global order, their bilateral relations will undoubtedly remain a critical pillar in their respective foreign policies.


(The author is an educationalist. Views personal.)

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