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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after...

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years has hardened into a public confrontation between a chief minister determined to finish five years and a deputy increasingly unwilling to wait. The recent breakfast meeting between the two men at Siddaramaiah’s residence was presented as a truce where the ‘high command’ was invoked as the final arbiter. “There are no differences between us,” Siddaramaiah insisted, twice for emphasis. Few were convinced and soon, Shivakumar was again hinting darkly at change. For weeks, Shivakumar’s loyalists have been holding meetings, mobilising legislators and making pilgrimages to Delhi to get the Congress high command to honour its promise. They insist that the Congress leadership agreed to a rotational chief ministership in 2023 and that November 2025 was always meant to mark Shivakumar’s ascent. The high command, for its part, has perfected the art of strategic vagueness by neither confirming nor denying the pact. This suggests that the Congress does not merely hesitate to act against Siddaramaiah, but increasingly lacks the capacity to do so. From the outset of his second innings, Siddaramaiah has given no signal of easing aside. As he approaches January 2026, poised to overtake D. Devaraj Urs as Karnataka’s longest-serving chief minister, the symbolism is unmistakable. The mantle of social justice politics that Urs once embodied now firmly sits on Siddaramaiah’s shoulders. And it is this social coalition that shields him. His fortress is AHINDA - minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Leaked figures from the unreleased caste census suggest that these groups together approach or exceed two-thirds of the state’s population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas, once electorally dominant, are rendered numerical minorities in this arithmetic. Siddaramaiah governs not merely as a Congress leader, but as the putative custodian of Karnataka’s demographic majority. That claim is reinforced through policy. Minority scholarships have been revived, contractor quotas restored, residential schools expanded. More than Rs. 42,000 crore has been earmarked for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Kurubas, his own community, have been pitched for Scheduled Tribe status, with careful assurances that their elevation will not disadvantage others. DK Shivakumar brings organisational muscle, financial clout and control over the Vokkaliga heartland. In electoral campaigns, these are formidable assets. But in a confrontation with a leader who embodies a 60–70 percent social coalition, they are blunt instruments. The Congress high command understands this equation, even if it publicly pretends otherwise. It also remembers, uneasily, what Siddaramaiah did the last time his authority was constrained. In 2020, when the Congress–JD(S) coalition collapsed after 16 MLAs defected to Mumbai,13 of them hailed from Siddaramaiah’s camp. At the time, he held the post of coordination committee chairman. Instead, he emerged as the principal beneficiary of collapse, returning as Leader of the Opposition with a tighter grip on the party. If the Congress high command could not punish him then, it is doubtful it can coerce him now. Shivakumar’s predicament is thus more tragic than tactical. He is not battling a rival alone, but an entire political structure built to outlast him. The promised coronation looks increasingly like a mirage drifting just ahead of a man condemned to keep walking. For the Congress, the cost of this paralysis is already visible. A government elected on guarantees and governance is consumed by succession. The party’s authority is dissolving while its factions harden. The Congress returned to power in Karnataka after years in the wilderness, only to re-enact the same leadership dysfunction that has crippled it elsewhere. Regardless of whether Siddaramaiah survives this storm, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Congress cannot survive the slow corrosion of its command in one of the few states it holds today.

India and the Second Trump Era: A Strategic Partnership Ready for the Next Frontier

Updated: Nov 15, 2024

India and the Second Trump Era

Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States is not just a political milestone but marks a pivotal moment for India in the international arena. While the U.S. relationship with India has been evolving for decades, Trump’s return could accelerate this shift, deepening ties between the two democracies in a manner that promises mutual strategic and economic gains.


At the heart of this transformation lies India’s remarkable progress in the past decade, which has shifted its role from a partner of convenience to a key player in the global balance of power. Three developments stand out: the Aadhaar revolution, the telecommunication boom, and unprecedented infrastructure growth. With nearly 1.5 billion people now holding a digital identity through Aadhaar, and India on the cutting edge of 5G and 6G technology, the country’s modernization is a game-changer. Add to that the sweeping advancements in transportation, logistics, and digital infrastructure India’s profile has risen dramatically on the world stage.


These changes have not gone unnoticed in Washington. Over the past ten years, the U.S. has increasingly viewed India not just as a buyer of goods and services but as a partner in tackling some of the world’s most pressing challenges. The relationship has matured through a series of agreements, particularly in sensitive technology sectors like defence and space exploration. A landmark agreement, signed between the U.S. and India’s security councils, promises joint production in cutting-edge technologies, from microchips to military hardware. America’s willingness to transfer sensitive technology to India - once unthinkable - signals a fundamental shift in U.S. policy.


It is almost axiomatic to say that the relationship between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump plays a critical role in this realignment. Their personal chemistry, which was showcased during the ‘Howdy Modi’ event in Texas, has fostered goodwill at the highest levels. PM Modi’s strategic focus on U.S.-India ties is apparent in the security guarantees the U.S. has extended to India, even going so far as to declare that an attack on India would be regarded as an attack on the U.S. Such high-level assurances reflect the growing strategic trust between the two countries.


If former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had laid the groundwork for stronger India-U.S. ties, it is Narendra Modi who has brought this relationship to its fullest fruition. While the process of rapprochement began two decades ago, PM Modi has injected a sense of dynamism and strategic vision that has reshaped the partnership. The foundation of this evolving relationship has been a growing alignment of mutual interests, particularly in countering China. Under then PM Vajpayee ji, the U.S. began to see India as a crucial counterbalance in Asia, but PM Modi has taken this vision further, solidifying India’s global role.


However, it is important to note that while the U.S. views India as a potential strategic ally akin to its relationships with the U.K. or Japan, India’s stance remains clear: it will cultivate close, friendly relations with the U.S., but it will not enter into a formal alliance. This distinction is critical in understanding the nature of India-U.S. ties today.


India’s independent foreign policy, particularly its nuanced stance on Russia and its strategic autonomy in the region, ensures that the relationship remains one of pragmatic cooperation rather than alliance.

The U.S. has shown signs of adapting to this reality. While the Trump administration will likely continue to push for closer economic and defence ties, it will also have to contend with challenges, particularly in trade. Trump has already promised to raise import tariffs, which could put pressure on Indian exports. Additionally, the significant trade deficit in India’s favour could lead to assertive negotiations on tariffs and market access for U.S. goods.


On the defence front, U.S.-India relations are poised for further growth. In recent months, the U.S. has agreed to transfer critical defence technologies to India, including the manufacturing of American jet engines and Predator drones on Indian soil. These agreements signify that India is no longer just a customer of American arms but a strategic partner in maintaining regional security.


The broader context for these developments is the evolving balance of power in Asia. China’s assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea, poses a direct challenge to U.S. interests, and India’s role as a regional counterweight is vital. In this sense, Trump’s 'America First' policy may increasingly resemble a policy of ‘Asia First’ with India as a key partner in securing America’s interests in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.


The emerging alignment between the U.S. and India is about more than just countering China. It is also about enhancing both countries’ global competitiveness. As the U.S. seeks to decouple from China in global supply chains, India’s growing industrial base and technological capabilities present an attractive alternative. For both countries, fostering closer economic ties is a win-win, as India’s rise complements America’s long-term economic and strategic interests.


In sum, Trump’s second term could see the U.S.-India relationship enter a new phase of deep operational collaboration. The foundations laid by previous administrations have been solidified under PM Modi’s leadership, and with Trump at the helm, there is potential for even greater synergy. As the global order shifts, India’s strategic importance to the U.S. is only set to grow, with both countries poised to benefit from a more robust and multifaceted partnership.

(The author is BJP National General Secretary. Views Personal)

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