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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

India Inc’s Reinvention Moment

As confidence soars among Indian CEOs, the call is increasingly for a transformation built on talent, technology and trust.

Indian corporate boardrooms are abuzz with optimism. After years of weathering global uncertainty, India’s business leaders have entered 2025 with a rare mix of bullish ambition and sober realism. A striking 90 percent of CEOs polled across multiple surveys, from PwC to EY-Parthenon, expect stronger revenue and profitability this year. Yet most also concede that without radical transformation, their business models may not survive the decade.


Such confidence, tempered by caution, is distinctively Indian. While executives in Europe and North America fret over inflation, war and fragmentation, their Indian counterparts are preparing to grow boldly and, most crucially, responsibly. For India Inc., the mantra is shifting from scale to substance. It is not just how to grow, but how to grow sustainably, inclusively and smartly.


Technology is top of the agenda. More than 85 percent of Indian CEOs plan to ramp up investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics this year by outpacing their global peers. But what sets India apart is its twin focus in not just buying technology, but building the people to wield it. Indian firms are launching in-house AI certification programs and partnering with edtech startups to upskill employees en masse. The emergence of the Chief AI Officer (CAIO) role in banks and retail giants signals that Indian businesses are integrating AI deep into their operational DNA.


That commitment to talent runs deeper still. 93 percent of Indian CEOs plan to expand headcount in the next three years, even as global layoffs make headlines. The focus is not merely on hiring, but on nurturing. Internal ‘gig’ platforms, already in play in several tech firms, allow employees to moonlight on projects across teams, gaining fresh skills and wider exposure. Career growth is becoming less a ladder and more a lattice.


Indeed, Indian executives are embracing a more human-centered approach to leadership. Rather than command-and-control, leaders are expected to enable, empathize and empower. A new management ethos is emerging – one that is rooted in service, resilience and cultural fluency. For instance, return-to-office policies are being nudged with incentives rather than mandates.


But optimism cannot be allowed to breed complacency. Nearly half of Indian CEOs now concede that their firms won’t be viable by 2035 without overhauling core business models. The most forward-thinking leaders are taking this seriously by setting aside 5–10 percent of annual budgets for bold digital-first offerings, subscription models and partnerships with startups. Tata Consumer Products, for example, has pioneered co-creation labs that bring customers directly into the innovation process.


Cost efficiency, too, is getting a rethink. Not through across-the-board austerity, but with precision and purpose. Indian conglomerates are adopting ‘zero-based’ reviews by resetting budget assumptions every 12–18 months to free up capital for growth engines like digital platforms and innovation labs. Blanket cost-cutting is out; value-based prioritisation is in.


Environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics are no longer a corporate afterthought. Though less than half of Indian companies have fully integrated climate risks into strategic planning, early adopters are already seeing returns in customer loyalty, lower financing costs and a better employer brand. Companies like Infosys and Mahindra are pioneering ‘green academies’ to train middle managers in sustainability leadership.


ESG, in the Indian context, is also a storytelling opportunity. Firms are moving beyond jargon-filled sustainability reports, instead weaving climate and equity narratives into brand identity.


The best Indian companies are adopting a new tempo. Annual strategies are giving way to rolling plans with quarterly pivots and constant course correction. Leadership itself is becoming more agile and increasingly marked by quick experiments, real-time listening and a willingness to fail forward. AI, ESG and talent development are not seen as parallel tracks, but converging currents in a single transformation stream.


As the CEO of AssessPro and author of the TalentPulse agenda for 2025, I have argued that India’s next leap will not come from chasing growth alone. It will come from cultivating future-ready leaders, by embedding AI into the core of business strategy and treating ESG not as a box to tick but a reason to exist.


That may sound lofty. But with India projected to be the third-largest economy by the end of the decade, the stakes are too high for incrementalism. In a world where agility trumps scale and resilience rivals profit, India Inc. has a rare chance to not just keep up but lead gloriously.


(The writer is a leadership development specialist, author and CEO of AssessPro, with a rich experience in transforming talent into tangible impact. Views personal.)

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