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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 4:59:11 pm

Why BJP cannot afford to pull Fadnavis out of Maharashtra

Mumbai: A recent political skirmish between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ wife, Amruta and Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut has inadvertently breathed new life into one of Maharashtra’s longest-running political debates: Is the Chief Minister quietly preparing to shift his base to New Delhi? Following a provocation by Raut regarding a potential move to the national capital, Amruta delivered a sharp retort, asserting that unlike the Sena leader, both she and her husband remain strictly...

Why BJP cannot afford to pull Fadnavis out of Maharashtra

Mumbai: A recent political skirmish between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’ wife, Amruta and Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut has inadvertently breathed new life into one of Maharashtra’s longest-running political debates: Is the Chief Minister quietly preparing to shift his base to New Delhi? Following a provocation by Raut regarding a potential move to the national capital, Amruta delivered a sharp retort, asserting that unlike the Sena leader, both she and her husband remain strictly oriented toward grassroots public service. While this high-profile exchange captured the daily headlines, a deeper investigative analysis of the state’s political chessboard reveals a starker structural reality – the BJP simply cannot afford to move Fadnavis anytime soon. The speculation surrounding a “Delhi destiny” for Fadnavis is not new. Political observers have frequently positioned him in the national leadership matrix, with widespread speculation even hinting at him as a potential successor to the Prime Minister. Yet, Fadnavis has consistently played the consummate organization man. He has repeatedly stated his strong preference to remain anchored in Maharashtra, while diplomatically adding that, as a disciplined cadre of the BJP, he is bound to serve the people in whatever capacity the party high command deems appropriate. Leadership Vacuum However, behind closed doors, the real reasons anchoring Fadnavis to Maharashtra lie in the severe leadership vacuum and complex challenges currently facing the state BJP unit. A forensic look at the party’s regional roster exposes a glaring lack of alternatives. Over the past few years, the state party dynamic has been fundamentally restructured; senior stalwarts like Vinod Tawde have already been absorbed into the central leadership in New Delhi, while several other regional heavyweights have been strategically cut down to size. Consequently, the Maharashtra BJP is currently devoid of another experienced, universally acceptable hand with the political bandwidth to govern a crucial and financially vital state. Fadnavis possesses a rare ideological and administrative hybrid profile that perfectly aligns with Maharashtra’s unique sociopolitical climate. He remains deeply rooted in the core Hindutva ideology of his parent organization, yet he seamlessly projects the modern, technocratic, and pro-corporate image that is absolutely essential to helm a highly progressive and industrialized state. This dual persona is the exact political capital required to hold a fragile government together. Fadnavis has proven to be the only leader capable of walking the tightrope of regional coalition politics, successfully acting as the connective tissue between two major, often feuding allies who rarely see eye-to-eye on administrative or ideological issues. Caste Politics Beyond coalition mechanics, Maharashtra is currently navigating a highly volatile undercurrent of simmering caste politics. Fadnavis’ political acumen has been critical in absorbing these sociopolitical stretches and strains, ensuring that these regional frictions do not derail the state’s economic momentum. Under his watch, the administration has fiercely guarded Maharashtra’s position as the numero uno destination for development and investment in the country. Finally, the state is gearing up for a season of massive logistical, cultural, and administrative challenges, most notably the upcoming Kumbh Mela in Nashik. Executing mega-events of this scale requires seasoned, hands-on leadership and deep institutional memory.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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