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By:

Dr. V.L. Dharurkar

12 February 2025 at 2:53:17 pm

Pakistan’s Kashmir Crisis

As unrest engulfs Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, economic hardship, political alienation and a forceful state response are exposing the widening cracks in Islamabad’s governance of the region. Pakistan today finds itself confronting multiple internal crises at once. While the world focuses on its troubled ties with Afghanistan and the long-running insurgency in Balochistan, another front has opened within Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Weeks of sustained protests have exposed a reservoir of...

Pakistan’s Kashmir Crisis

As unrest engulfs Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, economic hardship, political alienation and a forceful state response are exposing the widening cracks in Islamabad’s governance of the region. Pakistan today finds itself confronting multiple internal crises at once. While the world focuses on its troubled ties with Afghanistan and the long-running insurgency in Balochistan, another front has opened within Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Weeks of sustained protests have exposed a reservoir of public anger that has been building for decades. Political Instability Ever since its creation, Pakistan has struggled with political instability, economic uncertainty and regional discontent. Nowhere is this more evident than in PoK. Although Islamabad has long projected the territory as an integral part of its Kashmir policy, it has failed to provide the region with responsive governance, meaningful political representation or sustained economic development. The present turmoil is the consequence of decades of accumulated neglect. The protests that intensified over the past several weeks did not erupt in a vacuum. According to protest groups and local reports, more than 140 people have died during nearly 50 days of unrest, while many more have been injured. The demonstrations have spread across key towns, including Muzaffarabad and Rawalakot, bringing into sharp focus the widening disconnect between the people and the Pakistani state. At the heart of the agitation lie everyday grievances. Inflation has pushed the prices of essential commodities beyond the reach of ordinary citizens. Electricity tariffs have risen sharply. Shortages of subsidised wheat flour have fuelled public resentment. The public distribution system has steadily deteriorated, while unemployment, poverty and inadequate public services have further deepened the crisis. For many residents, these are not temporary hardships but symptoms of decades of administrative failure. The absence of meaningful dialogue between Islamabad and the people of PoK has created precisely such a vacuum. Genuine demands raised by the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) have, in the opinion of its supporters, been met with indifference rather than engagement. As frustration mounted, demonstrations became the only avenue through which ordinary citizens could express their grievances. Political representation has emerged as another major flashpoint. Critics argue that local institutions possess limited autonomy and that important decisions continue to be dictated from Islamabad. Public anger has intensified following the cancellation of 12 reserved Assembly seats for Kashmiri refugees, a move that many believe has further weakened democratic representation. Coercive Tactics Instead of addressing these concerns through dialogue and reform, Pakistan has largely relied on coercion. Security forces have launched extensive crackdowns against demonstrators, with reports alleging the use of live ammunition and military-grade weapons in densely populated areas. The Pakistani government has responded by banning the Joint Awami Action Committee under anti-terrorism laws. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has defended the security operations and accused protesters of acting in India's interest. Such accusations, however, do little to address the underlying issues that brought thousands onto the streets. Branding dissent as external conspiracy may serve immediate political purposes, but it cannot substitute for governance. The unrest has also drawn support from Pakistani students, who have organised demonstrations in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi, demanding justice for the protesters and calling for an impartial investigation into the violence. Their participation indicates that the issue has expanded beyond PoK and now resonates with wider concerns about democratic rights and state accountability within Pakistan itself. The crisis reflects a deeper structural failure. Pakistan’s promise of national unity has repeatedly been tested by ethnic, regional and political fault lines. Balochistan continues to witness insurgency, while unrest in PoK points to another region where the relationship between the state and society has steadily deteriorated. Without inclusive governance and meaningful political participation, such tensions are unlikely to disappear. India should seize this strategic moment to work towards the liberation of PoK from decades of injustice, maladministration and state-sponsored violence. The mistake committed during the early years of the Kashmir dispute should now be corrected through decisive national policy. Such a course would not merely strengthen India's strategic position but also help integrate the entire region of Jammu and Kashmir under the Union of India. Following the abrogation of Article 370, the next logical step is to reclaim PoK, thereby ending Pakistan’s use of the territory for cross-border terrorism. (The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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