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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 3:50:16 pm

Static Warfare

Maharashtra’s politics has long resembled a murky theatrical production, but its latest act has descended into farce. A purported audio recording released by Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, allegedly discussing a staggering Rs. 500-crore payment routed to him through Shiv Sena MP Shrikant Shinde, son of Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, has plunged the ruling Mahayuti into fresh turmoil. While the recording’s authenticity remains unverified, the political fallout has...

Static Warfare

Maharashtra’s politics has long resembled a murky theatrical production, but its latest act has descended into farce. A purported audio recording released by Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, allegedly discussing a staggering Rs. 500-crore payment routed to him through Shiv Sena MP Shrikant Shinde, son of Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, has plunged the ruling Mahayuti into fresh turmoil. While the recording’s authenticity remains unverified, the political fallout has already exposed the fissures beneath the coalition’s carefully cultivated façade of unity. The first imperative is to establish the facts. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has ordered a forensic examination of the recording, including the identities of the speakers and the circumstances in which it was made. The investigation must go beyond determining whether the audio has been manipulated. Its provenance, completeness, context and circulation must also be established. The allegations are extraordinary. Jarange claims that the purported conversation points to efforts to blunt his influence ahead of the 2024 Assembly elections, when his agitation for Maratha reservation had become a significant political force. The recording allegedly refers to Rs. 500 crore being delivered through Shrikant Shinde. Both Eknath Shinde and his son have rejected the allegations, with the latter responding sarcastically that the money never reached him. Jarange, for his part, has denied receiving the sum and demanded an investigation. The recording has surfaced nearly two years after the alleged conversation, reportedly dating to October 2024. Fadnavis has himself questioned why it has emerged now and who stands to benefit. The allegations have become a test of trust within the Mahayuti itself. The BJP and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena remain partners in government, but their relationship is hardly free of friction. Shinde’s transition from chief minister to deputy chief minister after the 2024 Assembly election underscored the BJP’s ascendancy within the alliance. The latest controversy has revived questions about whether competing ambitions and suspicions are undermining the partnership. The danger lies in the ease with which political intrigue can displace governance. An allegation involving Rs. 500 crore is not a routine exchange of partisan accusations. If substantiated, it would raise grave questions about the use of money to influence a social movement and electoral outcomes. The Maratha reservation agitation has had profound consequences for Maharashtra’s social equilibrium. To reduce such a movement to an instrument of electoral management, if that is what occurred, would be a serious indictment of the political establishment. There is a further question that Maharashtra’s political class must confront: why does every major public controversy so quickly become a contest over factional survival? The state’s politics has grown increasingly transactional, shaped by shifting loyalties and the compulsions of coalition management. The government must therefore ensure that the inquiry is independent in substance, not merely forensic in name.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Writer: Capt. Naveen S Singhal
Capt. Naveen S Singhal
Dec 5, 2024
4 min read
Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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