top of page

By:

Prasad Dixit

11 October 2024 at 1:09:23 am

The Age of Democratic Impatience

From Britain to Nepal, economic discontent is rewriting the rules of democratic politics. Although the United Kingdom and Nepal occupy opposite ends of the global economic spectrum, they offer a remarkably similar political lesson. One is a former imperial power, the world's fifth-largest economy, a G7 member and nuclear state with centuries-old democratic institutions. The other is a small, landlocked Himalayan nation still classified by the United Nations as a Least Developed Country,...

The Age of Democratic Impatience

From Britain to Nepal, economic discontent is rewriting the rules of democratic politics. Although the United Kingdom and Nepal occupy opposite ends of the global economic spectrum, they offer a remarkably similar political lesson. One is a former imperial power, the world's fifth-largest economy, a G7 member and nuclear state with centuries-old democratic institutions. The other is a small, landlocked Himalayan nation still classified by the United Nations as a Least Developed Country, with a turbulent transition from monarchy to republican democracy. On paper, they have almost nothing in common. Yet over the past dozen years, both have experienced an extraordinary churn in political leadership. Political Instability Nepal has witnessed ten changes of government during this period. Britain has already seen six prime ministers since 2016, with another leadership contest looming. Historically, British politics revolved around the Conservative and Labour parties. Nepal's governments have alternated between the Nepali Congress and different avatars of the Communist Party of Nepal, with newer political forces attempting to disrupt the old order. The obvious explanation would be unstable coalition politics. That argument holds for Nepal, where fractured electoral mandates have repeatedly produced fragile governments. It is much less convincing in Britain, where several governments enjoyed comfortable parliamentary majorities. Yet political instability has persisted in both countries. The common thread lies elsewhere: in the increasingly impatient relationship between voters and economic outcomes. In both countries, governments have ultimately risen or fallen less because of ideology than because ordinary citizens judged them on their ability to manage everyday economic realities. Britain spent much of the past decade consumed by Brexit. The referendum itself became a vehicle through which voters projected a range of frustrations—stagnant wages, regional inequality, immigration, public services and national identity. When leaving the European Union failed to produce quick economic dividends, governments found themselves paying the political price. Inflation, sluggish growth and the cost-of-living crisis only intensified that dissatisfaction. Nepal’s frustrations emerged from a very different context but followed the same political logic. High youth unemployment, inadequate opportunities, rising inflation and the continuing exodus of young workers overseas steadily eroded public confidence. Corruption scandals and allegations of nepotism deepened the anger, but they were accelerants rather than the original cause. Had livelihoods improved meaningfully, many scandals might not have triggered the same level of public outrage. The result has been a politics of perpetual disappointment. This reflects a broader trend visible across democracies. Economic management has become vastly more complicated just as public expectations have become more immediate. Social media compresses political time. Governments are judged not over five-year terms but over five-week news cycles. Every policy is subjected to instant verdicts, amplified through digital echo chambers that reward outrage more than patience. Citizens increasingly expect structural problems accumulated over decades to be solved within months. When they are not, changing the leader appears to offer the quickest remedy. But economies rarely function that way. Managing an economy resembles adjusting the temperature of a shower by turning the hot and cold-water taps. Small changes require time before their effects become visible. Constantly making large adjustments before previous ones have taken effect only produces oscillation between extremes. Fiscal reforms, industrial policy, labour-market changes or monetary interventions all operate with long and often unpredictable time lags. Their benefits are seldom immediate. Modern economies have also become more interconnected than ever before. Supply chains stretch across continents. Wars disrupt shipping lanes. Climate change affects agricultural production. Technological revolutions transform labour markets faster than education systems can adapt. Geopolitical tensions increasingly weaponize trade, investment and critical minerals. Domestic governments exercise significant influence, but they no longer control every variable affecting prices, employment or growth. Britain’s Brexit experience illustrates this reality. Many supporters believed leaving the European Union would rapidly restore economic sovereignty while preserving unrestricted access to European markets. In practice, every economic relationship involves reciprocal obligations. Open markets, labour mobility and regulatory alignment are rarely one-way arrangements. Interdependent economies inevitably require compromise. Same Dilemma Nepal’s democratic transition reveals a different version of the same dilemma. The abolition of monarchy fulfilled an important political aspiration, but democracy itself cannot instantly create jobs, attract investment or raise incomes. Institutions require time to mature. Governance reforms produce results gradually rather than overnight. Frequent changes of leadership often interrupt precisely the long-term policy continuity required for sustained economic development. Political debates often confuse ideology with economic management. Ideological preferences - whether conservative, socialist, liberal or nationalist - reflect legitimate democratic choices. Citizens may legitimately disagree over taxation levels or welfare priorities, but every government, regardless of ideology, must maintain growth, employment, fiscal stability and confidence in public institutions. These are common minimum expectations rather than ideological luxuries that requires responsibility from both governments and citizens. Governments must communicate not only long-term visions but also measurable intermediate milestones. People are more likely to remain patient when they can see credible progress rather than vague promises. Transparent benchmarks build trust even when immediate results remain elusive. Citizens, meanwhile, require greater economic literacy. Academic education does not automatically translate into understanding how economies function. Voters need to appreciate that trade-offs are unavoidable, reforms involve costs, and there are rarely painless solutions. Democracies inevitably involve compromise, and economic policymaking is often about choosing the least damaging option rather than the perfect one. History repeatedly demonstrates that there are no magic wands. Every economy operates through trade-offs. Nations cannot enjoy unrestricted market access while rejecting reciprocal obligations. Governments cannot indefinitely expand welfare without considering fiscal sustainability. Nor can structural reforms produce instant prosperity. India has enjoyed far greater political stability than either Britain or Nepal since emerging from the coalition era of the 1990s. Yet it too has faced economic protests, policy reversals and intense public resistance to difficult reforms. The lesson from Britain and Nepal is therefore not about their unique circumstances but about a broader democratic challenge. Unless societies learn to distinguish between temporary setbacks and systemic failure, between long-term reforms and instant gratification, many more democracies may find themselves trapped in cycles of recurring political instability. The Tyranny of Expectations At first glance, Britain’s Brexit debate and Nepal’s political turbulence appear to have little in common. One revolved around sovereignty and membership of the European Union; the other emerged from unemployment, inflation and democratic transition. Yet beneath these different narratives lay the same public expectation that one decisive political act would quickly solve deep-rooted economic problems. That expectation rarely survives contact with reality. Economic management does not operate like an election campaign, where victories are declared overnight. It resembles steering a large ship. Every policy adjustment takes time before changing direction, and excessive corrections often create greater instability. The Brexit referendum demonstrated how complex economic questions were reduced to a binary political choice. Many voters believed Britain could simultaneously regain complete regulatory control, restrict immigration and retain most of the economic advantages of the European single market. But modern economies are built on reciprocity. Market access, labour mobility and investment flows are interconnected. One cannot indefinitely enjoy the benefits while rejecting the accompanying obligations. Nepal experienced a comparable dynamic after abandoning monarchy and embracing republican democracy. Political freedom arrived relatively quickly. Economic transformation did not. Millions of young Nepalese continued migrating abroad in search of employment. Inflation remained high, opportunities remained scarce, and coalition governments repeatedly struggled to maintain continuity. In both countries, disappointment translated into political volatility. This raises an uncomfortable question. Has public patience declined faster than governments’ ability to deliver? Digital media may partly explain the shift. Social media compresses expectations. Every budget, policy announcement or inflation figure produces instant commentary, often rewarding emotional reactions over measured analysis. Citizens compare their circumstances not only with neighbours but with global standards visible on their phones. Expectations rise faster than productive capacity. Economic literacy therefore becomes increasingly important. Understanding basic economic principles does not require advanced academic training. It requires recognising that every policy involves trade-offs. Lower taxes may reduce government revenues. Higher welfare spending must eventually be financed. Industrial protection may preserve some domestic jobs while increasing costs elsewhere. Inflation cannot always be controlled without affecting growth. Political parties also share responsibility. Too often, opposition parties criticise necessary reforms simply because they are politically inconvenient. Governments, in turn, frequently oversell policies as instant solutions. Both approaches encourage unrealistic public expectations. Instead, political competition should focus on methods rather than miracles. Parties may legitimately differ on taxation, welfare or industrial strategy while agreeing on basic economic realities. Honest public communication may not generate dramatic headlines, but it creates durable trust. Ultimately, democracy functions best when citizens evaluate governments over sustained periods rather than reacting to every short-term setback. Replacing leaders may sometimes be necessary. Treating leadership change itself as an economic policy seldom is. Stability Is No Guarantee India has avoided the revolving-door politics witnessed in Britain and Nepal. Since the unstable coalition era of the 1990s, governments have generally enjoyed stronger mandates and greater continuity. Yet that political stability should not create complacency, for economic challenges have become increasingly global in nature. History offers sobering reminders that political stability alone has never guaranteed economic tranquillity. Post-war Britain, despite enjoying broad political consensus under successive Labour and Conservative governments, still had to endure years of rationing, painful fiscal adjustments and the slow rebuilding of an economy exhausted by the Second World War. Likewise, India’s landmark economic reforms of 1991 did not transform the country overnight. Liberalisation laid the foundation for decades of growth, but its benefits unfolded gradually over many years rather than within a single electoral cycle. Today’s challenges are even more formidable. Wars in Europe and West Asia have disrupted energy markets and global shipping. Supply chains are increasingly being weaponised amid geopolitical rivalry. Climate change is affecting agriculture, water security and insurance costs. Artificial intelligence and automation are transforming labour markets faster than educational institutions can adapt. These are pressures that no government, however popular, can entirely insulate itself from. India has already experienced several reminders of these constraints. Major reforms have often encountered fierce resistance, leading to prolonged protests and, in some cases, policy reversals. The lesson is clear: even governments with decisive electoral mandates cannot assume unlimited public patience. Managing expectations, therefore, becomes almost as important as managing the economy itself. Governments must present not only ambitious long-term visions but also credible milestones that citizens can monitor. Measurable progress creates confidence. It reassures people that difficult reforms are moving in the intended direction, even when immediate benefits remain limited. Equally important is distinguishing between ideological debates and economic competence. Democracies will always argue over competing political philosophies. That is healthy. But regardless of ideology, every government must deliver certain fundamentals: employment opportunities, macroeconomic stability, investment confidence, inflation control and functioning public services. These should constitute the common minimum programme expected of any administration. Citizens, too, have responsibilities. Economic policymaking rarely offers perfect choices. Governments often decide between competing disadvantages rather than obvious advantages. Public debate should therefore reward transparency, accountability and the willingness to course-correct instead of demanding immediate changes in leadership whenever short-term difficulties arise. Britain and Nepal demonstrate that prosperity alone does not guarantee political stability, nor does democratic legitimacy automatically generate public patience. The modern electorate increasingly demands visible results within compressed political timelines. For India, the warning is timely. Political stability remains a significant national asset. Preserving it will depend not merely on electoral arithmetic but on building a more economically informed public conversation that understands reforms take time, that difficult trade-offs are unavoidable, and that sustainable prosperity is measured in years rather than news cycles. The greatest threat to democratic stability today may not be ideological conflict. It may simply be the growing belief that every economic problem has a quick political solution. History, whether in post-war Britain or post-1991 India, suggests otherwise.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

Comments


bottom of page