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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Resorts, Rallies, and Rebellion

Inside Mahayuti’s high-stakes firefighting for legislative council polls Mumbai: The public posture of ruling Mahayuti alliance radiates supreme confidence. Leaders from the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and NCP led by Sunetra Pawar are predicting a clean sweep. Voting is scheduled for Thursday. Yet, beneath this calm exterior lies intense backstage panic. None of the alliance constituents are leaving any loose ends. No leader wants to take any risks, as everybody is trying to ensure...

Resorts, Rallies, and Rebellion

Inside Mahayuti’s high-stakes firefighting for legislative council polls Mumbai: The public posture of ruling Mahayuti alliance radiates supreme confidence. Leaders from the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and NCP led by Sunetra Pawar are predicting a clean sweep. Voting is scheduled for Thursday. Yet, beneath this calm exterior lies intense backstage panic. None of the alliance constituents are leaving any loose ends. No leader wants to take any risks, as everybody is trying to ensure their real value is recognized and past political scores are waiting to be settled. This volatile environment has triggered widespread fears of cross-voting. It has given a massive boost to resort politics across the state. The upcoming contest spans 17 local self-government constituencies. The unique composition of this electorate makes the election highly unpredictable. The voters are not regular citizens. They are elected corporators, municipal councillors, and Zilla Parishad members. This setup makes the election hyper-localized. It offers a perfect shadow arena for local politicians to exercise leverage. Consequently, ruling alliance leaders are taking extraordinary measures to protect their flocks. Every single vote is being heavily guarded. Poaching Game Political parties have quickly locked down their voters to prevent poaching. Sources reveal that local body members from Sangli, Nanded, and Nagpur are already gone. They have been taken on special tours to Goa under tight supervision. Meanwhile, corporators from Nashik have been moved elsewhere. They are currently staying at a secluded luxury resort near Bhiwandi. These defensive tactics show how deeply the party bosses distrust their own members. Political managers are monitoring every voter’s movement around the clock. The ground reality across key cities highlights this deep regional friction. In Nagpur, the stakes are incredibly high. This by-election became necessary after state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule vacated the seat. He did so after winning his election to the state assembly. The BJP cannot afford a defeat in its primary ideological stronghold. Similarly, the Wardha-Chandrapur-Gadchiroli constituency presents a tough challenge. The BJP has fielded Arun Lakhani for this crucial seat. However, managing the intricate web of local body representatives in Chandrapur is testing the party machinery. Shifting Loyalties Other regions show similar vulnerability. In seats like Jalgaon, Nanded, and Sangli, traditional political loyalties are shifting. Compounding these internal threats is the BJP’s aggressive campaign strategy. The party chose to treat this council election as an opportunity. They wanted to expand their standalone organisational footprint across the state. Instead of relying on traditional top-down bulk voting through alliance bosses, the BJP targeted the electorate directly. The party organised an array of localised rallies, town hall meetings, and gatherings of the electorate. Some of these events registered an excellent response. However, this unilateral approach deeply irritated their alliance partners and many of these events saw dismal attendance by BJP’s alliance partners. Apart from this general apathy, the real challenge was that of open rebellion within the ruling alliance’s internal ranks. Disgruntled local leaders, disappointed ticket seekers, and ignored district presidents had expressed loud resentment. Even sitting MLAs and MLCs have signaled their displeasure over candidate choices. State BJP leaders had to spend considerable energy for the firefighting and ensuring that rebellion is contained. Yet many leaders are still unhappy with current regional power equations. Frantic Firefighting Fearing massive internal sabotage, the BJP top brass has launched a frantic firefighting operation. Senior leaders have been entrusted with strict responsibilities to oversee specific seats. They are managing all local arrangements personally. Top party managers are literally crisscrossing the state using helicopters and chartered flights. They are conducting last-minute pacification drives in every sensitive district. These leaders are holding urgent, closed-door meetings to placate angry regional chieftains. They are working hard to neutralize rebel factions. No disgruntled leader is being left unattended before Thursday morning. Promises of future political rewards are being distributed generously. Leaders are promising state-run board appointments and fresh development funds to buy peace. The frantic resort lockdowns and endless late-night negotiations reveal the true story of this election. The Mahayuti may still win a majority of these 17 seats through sheer resource dominance. However, the visible fractures in cities like Nashik, Sangli, Chandrapur, and Jalgaon reveal a fragile coalition. This council election has ceased to be a routine legislative exercise. It has mutated into a brutal internal audit of the ruling alliance’s unity. The final results will offer a definitive look at who holds the real power.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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