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By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

Jai Maharashtra!

Mumbai bids adieu to Uddhav’s 25-year rule ‘Thackeray Brand’ replaced with ‘Fiery Fadnavis’   Mumbai : The bitterly fought Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election results were on anticipated and decisive lines – with sobering lessons for all the players.   The Shiv Sena (UBT) led by ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is poised to meekly hand over the keys to the country’s richest civic body – over which it lorded for three decades - to the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena combine.  ...

Jai Maharashtra!

Mumbai bids adieu to Uddhav’s 25-year rule ‘Thackeray Brand’ replaced with ‘Fiery Fadnavis’   Mumbai : The bitterly fought Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election results were on anticipated and decisive lines – with sobering lessons for all the players.   The Shiv Sena (UBT) led by ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is poised to meekly hand over the keys to the country’s richest civic body – over which it lorded for three decades - to the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena combine.   The impending disaster loomed for days, the series of exit polls and sentiments of bookies – more than Rs One Lakh-Crore was pledged on the Mahayuti victory – plus, confident body-language of the Mahayuti leaders, that damned the fragmented Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi.   A leering BJP, which gunned for the ‘Thackeray brand’, is partly vindicated, considering SS (UBT)’s performance. The break-up of Shiv Sena engineered through Eknath Shinde in June 2022 paid rich dividends later, pushing Uddhav Thackeray out of power in the Assembly and now, even the BMC.   Deserting the BJP in October 2019 to later ally with Congress-Nationalist Congress Party as the MVA, Uddhav’s stars shone bright when he became the ‘reluctant CM’, flew high with his work during the Covid-19 Pandemic years, and even hinted for a ‘national role’ - till an eclipse on his regime suddenly started from Thane.   A betrayed Uddhav immediately threw away the trappings of power and promptly vacated ‘Varsha’ (CM official residence), as emotional supporters lined the route to ‘Matoshri’ (his private home), mourning the ‘death’ of the 30-month-old administration.   The MVA government fell, but the alliance grew in stature by humbling the BJP-NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Owing to various factors, again the tide turned in the Assembly elections that year when the MVA was virtually erased by the BJP-led Mahayuti triumvirate.   For the past year, hectic preparations were on by all parties for the series of civic elections across the state – touted as a ‘mini-referendum’. The BJP, armed with the divided Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party factions on its side, prepared for its final assault on the daunting ‘Thackeray brand’.   Genesis Of Nemesis Brushing aside concerns and allies, Uddhav hurriedly patched up with his cousin and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena President Raj Thackeray, to grapple with the Mahayuti on his home-ground, Mumbai, where the Shiv Sena was founded by Balasaheb Thackeray.   A cocky Uddhav insisted on including MNS into the MVA, but the Congress stoutly refused and even parted ways to ally with Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) of Prakash Ambedkar.   Several SS (UBT) bigwigs confided to  The Perfect Voice  how they had warned Uddhav on the MNS tie-up and its potential detrimental effects he airily shooed them off.   The partnership left the minorities, particularly Muslims who bore the brunt of Raj Thackeray’s mosque loudspeakers offensive, and large sections of non-Marathis in Mumbai – like UP-Biharis, Gujaratis, Marwaris – for the compulsion of speaking Marathi or shopkeepers must display Marathi signboards.   Though the final polls data will emerge over the coming days, Uddhav may have lost quite a chunk of crucial votes from the non-Marathis and minorities, who had accepted him as an unlikely ‘messiah’, till the Raj partnership was born.   Lessons For All The BMC results indicate that the SS (UBT) notched a respectable defeat, the MNS proved an embarrassment and beneficiary, the Congress performed on expected lines, and Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde is bereft of the much-coveted ‘Balasaheb Thackeray legacy’.   The SS (UBT) has catapulted as the second-largest party in the BMC, Shinde’s party - facing a gradual decline – stands third; the BJP is the single-largest party but way short of the magical 114-midway mark in the 227-member BMC house.   “Akin to 2019 and 2022, political jugglery of the weird kind is not ruled out. If, by some quirk of fate, the SS (UBT), Congress and Shiv Sena were to join forces, they can keep the BJP’s hands off the BMC…!” said a Congress leader.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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