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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 4:59:11 pm

MLC polls expose cracks in Mahayuti, MVA

AI Generated Image Mumbai: The upcoming Maharashtra Legislative Council (MLC) elections for the graduate and teacher constituencies have laid bare the deep-seated fissures within both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliances. In a significant development that could have far-reaching political implications, multiple rebel candidates, including prominent figures with strong party affiliations, have defied alliance dictates to file their nominations as...

MLC polls expose cracks in Mahayuti, MVA

AI Generated Image Mumbai: The upcoming Maharashtra Legislative Council (MLC) elections for the graduate and teacher constituencies have laid bare the deep-seated fissures within both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliances. In a significant development that could have far-reaching political implications, multiple rebel candidates, including prominent figures with strong party affiliations, have defied alliance dictates to file their nominations as independents, setting the stage for high-stakes, multi-cornered contests. Mahayuti Turmoil The Mahayuti alliance, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is grappling with rebellion on multiple fronts. In the critical Nagpur Graduates constituency, a traditional BJP stronghold, former BJP MLC and Nagpur Mayor Anil Sole has thrown a spanner in the works by filing his nomination as an independent candidate. This move directly challenges the official BJP candidate, Sudhakar Kohale. While the BJP leadership, including state president Ravindra Chavan, has attempted to downplay the situation, asserting that Sole has been "pacified," the former MLC's actions tell a different story. Sole's decision to contest independently is particularly significant given his long-standing association with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and his previous stint as a BJP MLC from the very same constituency. The situation is equally complicated in the Amravati Teachers constituency. The Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) has officially fielded Kiran Sarnaik. However, adding to the confusion, Sangita Shinde, sister of BJP MP Anil Bonde, has also entered the fray, potentially splitting the Mahayuti vote. The opposition MVA is also facing its share of internal discord here. While the Congress has nominated Aditi Pohre, daughter of former minister Harshvardhan Deshmukh, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded Dattatray Lahane. The presence of numerous candidates representing various teachers' organizations further complicates the electoral arithmetic in this constituency. Opposition Rebellion The Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar Graduates constituency has witnessed another surprise development. While the NCP's sitting MLC, Satish Chavan, was widely considered the frontrunner, the BJP's M.K. Deshmukh has unexpectedly filed his nomination as a rebel candidate, catching the Mahayuti leadership completely off guard. The MVA, too, is facing rebellion in this constituency. Although the seat was officially allocated to the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), Shiv Sena (UBT)'s Dilip Ghuge has also filed his nomination, causing significant heartburn within the opposition alliance. The Pune constituencies present a microcosm of the larger alliance troubles. In the Pune Graduates constituency, the BJP has fielded Dr. Smita Jadhav, the daughter-in-law of Pratap Singh Jadhav, owner of the 'Pudhari' news group and niece of Congress leader Satej Patil. Adding intrigue to this contest is the fact that she is contesting against Harshada Deshmukh-Jadhav, the official candidate of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction). However, the real drama is unfolding in the Pune Teachers constituency. The BJP's official candidate, Koustubh Gawde, is facing a formidable challenge from Mangesh Chiwate, a close confidant of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Chiwate, a former journalist who handled the CM's medical aid cell while Shinde was the CM, has claimed that his party leadership has provided him with the crucial 'AB' form, signaling official backing. Commenting on the chaotic situation, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis acknowledged that seat-sharing talks remained inconclusive in some areas but expressed hope that the alliance partners would eventually reach an agreement. The true picture of the electoral battlefield will only emerge after Friday, October 9th, the last date for the withdrawal of nominations. Until then, both alliances will be working overtime to contain the rebellions and present a united front, but the deep cracks exposed by these developments suggest that the upcoming MLC elections will be fiercely contested and highly unpredictable.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Dec 5, 2024
4 min read
Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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