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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Poriborton!

BJP candidate for Bhabanipur and Nandigram constituencies Suvendu Adhikari, who defeated West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the prestigious Bhabanipur seat, shows a certificate of election on Monday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: The Bengali word “Poriborton” translates to profound change. While it was initially fiercely utilized as the central battle cry for the assembly elections in West Bengal, the final tally from all five state elections reveals that the spirit of the word has swept across...

Poriborton!

BJP candidate for Bhabanipur and Nandigram constituencies Suvendu Adhikari, who defeated West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the prestigious Bhabanipur seat, shows a certificate of election on Monday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: The Bengali word “Poriborton” translates to profound change. While it was initially fiercely utilized as the central battle cry for the assembly elections in West Bengal, the final tally from all five state elections reveals that the spirit of the word has swept across the entire nation. The recent electoral outcomes have fundamentally rewritten the established rules of Indian democracy. From a massive anti-incumbency wave overturning fifteen years of rule in Bengal, to a political novice shattering a six-decade Dravidian stronghold in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress-led alliance successfully dislodging the incumbent Left in Kerala, the electorate has delivered a highly decisive mandate. Alongside sweeping consolidations of power in Assam and Puducherry, these results collectively disrupt historical traditions and reshape the national political landscape for years to come. Titan Toppled In West Bengal, the call for Poribartan finally resonated with enough force to bring down a formidable political fortress. A relentless anti-incumbency wave has overturned Mamata Banerjee’s fifteen-year rule. For a decade and a half, the Trinamool Congress maintained an iron grip on the state’s narrative, having previously ousted the Left Front on the very same promise of sweeping change. The defeat of the incumbent government signifies a monumental shift in the political psychology of Bengal. The electorate, driven by an urgent desire for a new direction, has dismantled a deeply entrenched political machine. This result forces a complete recalibration of power dynamics in eastern India, leaving a massive political vacuum that victorious forces will now rush to fill, fundamentally altering the governance trajectory of the state. Duopoly Shattered Equally seismic is the political earthquake that has struck Tamil Nadu. For six decades, the state’s political arena was fiercely guarded by a seemingly unbreakable Dravidian duopoly, with power alternating predictably between established giants. However, the emergence of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by cinema icon Thalapathy Vijay, has dismantled this historical dominance. By emerging as the single-largest party in the assembly count, the TVK has achieved what generations of politicians deemed impossible. This is not merely a change in government but a profound cultural and political revolution. The voters of Tamil Nadu have overwhelmingly opted for a fresh narrative, proving that star power coupled with an untested political promise can still upend deeply rooted ideological empires, ushering in an entirely new era of leadership. Absolute Dominance Meanwhile, the political landscape in the Northeast has witnessed a different kind of decisive mandate. In Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has not only retained power but has emerged significantly stronger, securing a third consecutive term. This victory effectively cements an aggressive regional hegemony and signals the near-total ouster of the Congress party from Assam’s mainstream politics. The result brings an ironclad continuity to the state, allowing the incumbent administration to push forward its agenda without any formidable legislative friction, while leaving the state’s oldest party desperately searching for political relevance. Pendulum Swings In Kerala, the electorate has delivered a decisive blow to the incumbent Left Democratic Front. The Congress-led United Democratic Front has successfully dislodged the government, claiming a vital victory in a state renowned for its fiercely contested, oscillating elections. This resurgence of the UDF injects critical new life into the state’s Congress machinery, drastically altering the governance model in Kerala. The outcome firmly proves that the traditional pendulum of Kerala politics still possesses the momentum to swing back fiercely against the incumbent, denying the Left a continued and uninterrupted grip on power. Comfortable Continuity Further down the coast in Puducherry, the mandate favored stability within a rapidly changing national map. The National Democratic Alliance government, led by the AINRC, comfortably secured its return to power. This victory ensures that the NDA maintains a crucial administrative foothold in the southern union territory, providing a steady anchor for its regional allies amid the broader national churn. When viewed collectively, these independent state results weave a complex tapestry that will inevitably reshape national politics. The fall of towering regional satraps in West Bengal and the disruption of the historic Dravidian stronghold in Tamil Nadu indicate a national electorate that is deeply restless and entirely unafraid to discard legacy systems. For the national opposition, the revival in Kerala offers a much-needed glimmer of hope, though it is heavily overshadowed by the existential crisis they face in Assam. The spectacular rise of new regional entities introduces a fresh, highly unpredictable variable into the national coalition arithmetic ahead of future general elections. Ultimately, the political center of gravity has fundamentally shifted, proving that “Poribartan” is no longer just a localized slogan, but the defining new reality of the country.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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