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By:

Bhalchandra Chorghade

11 August 2025 at 1:54:18 pm

Real estate sentiment steadies ahead of 2026

India’s real estate sector appears to have regained its equilibrium in the final quarter of 2025, with stakeholder sentiment stabilising after a phase of moderation earlier in the year. The 47th edition of the Knight Frank–NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2025 (October–December) indicates that both current and future outlooks remain firmly in the optimistic zone, underpinned by improving macroeconomic visibility, easing inflationary pressures and steady funding conditions. The...

Real estate sentiment steadies ahead of 2026

India’s real estate sector appears to have regained its equilibrium in the final quarter of 2025, with stakeholder sentiment stabilising after a phase of moderation earlier in the year. The 47th edition of the Knight Frank–NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2025 (October–December) indicates that both current and future outlooks remain firmly in the optimistic zone, underpinned by improving macroeconomic visibility, easing inflationary pressures and steady funding conditions. The Current Sentiment Score edged up marginally to 60 in Q4 2025 from 59 in the preceding quarter, while the Future Sentiment Score held steady at 61. Although these readings remain below the peaks witnessed during 2023–24, they reflect a market that has absorbed recent volatility and is now progressing on more stable fundamentals. The stabilisation suggests that stakeholders are tempering expectations while retaining confidence in the sector’s medium-term prospects. A key driver of this optimism is the strengthening domestic macroeconomic environment. Real GDP growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent in Q2 FY 2025–26, a sharp improvement over the 5.6 per cent recorded in the corresponding period last year. High-frequency indicators continue to signal sustained economic momentum, helping offset global uncertainties. According to Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India, stronger macro visibility, steady funding conditions and disciplined decision-making across stakeholders have collectively reinforced confidence. He noted that calibrated residential supply and robust office leasing activity are providing structural support to the market. Funding availability sentiment also improved during the quarter. Most respondents expect liquidity conditions to remain stable or improve, aided by policy continuity and a sustained focus on asset quality. While lenders and investors continue to adopt a selective approach, capital access across asset classes remains supportive, indicating confidence in the sector’s underlying fundamentals rather than speculative expansion. Regionally, future sentiment strengthened modestly across all zones, with every region remaining in the optimistic zone. The South Zone retained its leadership position with a score of 62, driven by strong office leasing in Bengaluru and Hyderabad and resilient demand in higher-ticket residential segments. The East Zone improved to 62 on the back of steady mid-segment housing demand, while the West Zone also strengthened to 62, supported by stable commercial activity and a calibrated approach to residential development. The North Zone recovered to 59, reflecting stabilising sentiment after earlier softness, aided by steady office traction and ongoing infrastructure momentum. The broad-based regional improvement underscores confidence anchored in urban demand and improving economic conditions. Stakeholder sentiment, however, showed moderate divergence. Institutional stakeholders such as banks, financial institutions and private equity funds recorded a higher Future Sentiment Score of 63, reflecting growing confidence in asset quality and liquidity. Developers, in contrast, maintained a more cautious stance with a score of 58, highlighting a disciplined approach that aligns growth plans closely with demand visibility and funding prudence. This divergence points to a market where capital providers are willing to support growth, while developers remain focused on risk management and execution efficiency. In the residential segment, future sentiment improved in Q4 2025, supported by sustained demand in higher ticket size segments and careful inventory management. Although sales momentum has moderated from earlier peaks, improving financing conditions and controlled supply additions have reinforced confidence. Overall sentiment remains optimistic, characterised by stable demand rather than rapid expansion. The office sector continues to anchor overall market confidence. Leasing expectations remain strong, driven by sustained occupier demand, particularly from Global Capability Centres across major cities. Limited availability of quality Grade A space has encouraged pre-leasing and early commitments, supporting firm rental expectations. Sentiment around new office supply has also improved, indicating expectations of a stronger development pipeline even as near-term availability remains constrained. Parveen Jain, President, NAREDCO, observed that the index reflects confidence strengthening after a period of mild moderation, with residential stability and consistent office leasing forming the backbone of optimism. Taken together, the Q4 2025 findings suggest that India’s real estate sector is entering 2026 on a steadier, more balanced footing, guided by economic clarity, prudent capital deployment and demand-driven strategies across asset classes.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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