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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Gen Z revolt leaves Modi govt scrambling

Mumbai: The recent CJP agitation at Jantar Mantar, amplified by a ferocious wave of social media backlash, has achieved what years of fragmented opposition politics could not: it has visibly shaken the highest echelons of the Narendra Modi government. For the first time in over a decade, the seemingly impenetrable fortress managed by Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah appears vulnerable. Driven by a Gen Z demographic that refuses to play by traditional political rules, the...

Gen Z revolt leaves Modi govt scrambling

Mumbai: The recent CJP agitation at Jantar Mantar, amplified by a ferocious wave of social media backlash, has achieved what years of fragmented opposition politics could not: it has visibly shaken the highest echelons of the Narendra Modi government. For the first time in over a decade, the seemingly impenetrable fortress managed by Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah appears vulnerable. Driven by a Gen Z demographic that refuses to play by traditional political rules, the movement has made the ruling dispensation’s meticulously crafted narrative look starkly outdated. The scale and intensity of the public unrest have triggered alarm bells, prompting the government to take unprecedented corrective measures. In a remarkable departure from its usual top-down approach, the Union government has officially deputed Officers on Special Duty (OSDs) to execute a massive ground-level feedback-gathering exercise. Insiders reveal that this crisis management strategy operates on multiple tiers. The government is actively seeking counsel from technology experts and content analysts to decipher exactly what went wrong and to understand the strategic advantages of the digital content generated by CJP supporters. These grassroots digital campaigns brought about a drastic, organic shift in public expression that caught the administration entirely off guard. Furthermore, officials are engaging in candid dialogues with independent, well-meaning individuals tasked with holding a mirror to the administration's failures. Professionals entrusted with coordinating these meetings admit the outcome remains uncertain, but the sheer scale of outreach marks a watershed moment for a government usually insulated from external critique. The political vacuum created by this unrest has been masterfully exploited by the opposition. Capitalizing on the opening created by the CJP protests and climate activist Sonam Wangchuk, Rahul Gandhi has seized the political advantage. By deploying an emotional narrative—particularly regarding the use of pellet guns—Gandhi has effectively targeted Amit Shah, leaving the Prime Minister cornered. The optics in Parliament have been equally jarring for the ruling party. For the first time in twelve years, fumbling, elderly figures within the BJP found themselves outmatched by the scathing, articulate assaults from Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. Armed with quick wit, finesse, and an undeniable superiority in content, the Congress leadership is dictating the terms of the debate, forcing the BJP onto the defensive. This sudden vulnerability has blown the lid off simmering discontent within the ruling party. Insiders are now openly arguing that the hyper-centralization of power by Modi and Shah is fundamentally flawed. The strategy of installing dependent "yes-men"—leaders who shine merely in borrowed light—in key state positions is backfiring spectacularly. While this iron-fisted strategy yields dividends during favourable times, the current crisis proves that an artificially sustained leadership cannot withstand a genuine storm. Many within the party lament the sidelining of softer, grassroots-connected leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan. A leader of Chouhan's calibre, possessing natural empathy and a deep understanding of the masses, could have offered a sympathetic and appealing rebuttal, contrasting sharply with the shallow, dry rhetoric currently being peddled by the party's younger, yet out-of-touch, defenders. The immediate consensus is that the party desperately needs to replace its aging heavyweights with articulate voices who can genuinely connect with an evolving electorate. Perhaps the most shocking revelation from the fallout is the catastrophic failure of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's (RSS) legendary feedback and feed-forward mechanism. For decades, the RSS has served as the eyes and ears of BJP governments, but this time, the machinery completely failed to gauge the scale of the impending unrest. According to senior insiders, the root cause lies in a deep-seated rot within the RSS itself. As the organization celebrates its centenary year, it is grappling with an internal crisis. Unlike previous BJP regimes where the political arm bore the exclusive brunt of corruption allegations, the malaise has now reportedly crept into the highest echelons of the RSS leadership. This unprecedented internal decay has severed the organization's vital connection to the ground, leaving the BJP flying blind during a crucial socio-political upheaval.Despite the prevailing anxiety within the corridors of power, the newly initiated feedback-gathering exercise is being hailed as a much-needed course correction by veteran leaders within both the party and the RSS. Long-sidelined stalwarts view this desperate measure as a vindication of their long-held grievances against the centralized high command. While the designated OSDs and professionals remain cautiously optimistic about the immediate impact of their data-gathering, these old-guard insiders sense a rare opportunity. They believe that confronting the unvarnished truth from the ground might finally force a complete and necessary overhaul of the Parivar organizations, dismantling the fragile, sycophantic structures currently in place and returning the party to its grassroots origins.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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