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By:

Commodore S.L. Deshmukh

31 October 2024 at 3:00:19 am

Holding the Line at Hormuz

Amid the Iran crisis, India’s quiet convoy war in the much-contested Strait reveals a maturing maritime power. Few bottlenecks are more consequential today than the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime hinge through which a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and vast volumes of gas must pass. Weeks into the escalating Iran–Israel–United States conflict, traffic through Hormuz has slowed to a trickle, as insurers have recoiled and prices have lurched upward. For energy-importing economies...

Holding the Line at Hormuz

Amid the Iran crisis, India’s quiet convoy war in the much-contested Strait reveals a maturing maritime power. Few bottlenecks are more consequential today than the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime hinge through which a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and vast volumes of gas must pass. Weeks into the escalating Iran–Israel–United States conflict, traffic through Hormuz has slowed to a trickle, as insurers have recoiled and prices have lurched upward. For energy-importing economies like India, the crisis is immediate and unforgiving. Heavily reliant on Gulf hydrocarbons, India has thus far conducted a quiet experiment in maritime statecraft by keeping ships moving through a contested chokepoint without tipping the balance of war. The hazards in Hormuz have rarely been confined to what can be seen. The present crisis has revived a worrying scenario - the alleged sowing of underwater mines, the menace of fast-attack craft and the fog of misidentification in crowded sea lanes. Even the hint of mining of the strait by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards is proving to be psychologically potent. Silent Strategy India’s response has been to wage a quiet convoy war. The Indian Navy has moved beyond simple escort duties to a layered system that blends intelligence, navigation, diplomacy and selective deterrence. Indian-flagged vessels departing terminals such as Ras Tanura are guided through the Persian Gulf on routes calibrated for both time and risk. The two-day approach to Hormuz is now treated as a managed operation. At the heart of the effort lies information. Merchantmen are instructed to broadcast their identity clearly via the Automatic Identification System, reducing the odds of fatal confusion in a tense environment. Warships, for their part, keep a deliberate distance from the most volatile waters, remaining in international zones while feeding ships a steady stream of real-time advice. The navy’s planners combine intelligence inputs with detailed seabed mapping to steer vessels around both natural shoals and suspected minefields. Once through the narrows and into the Gulf of Oman, the posture changes. There, Indian warships assume more traditional escort roles, maintaining constant communications and shepherding tankers into the Arabian Sea. Reports suggest a flotilla of at least five vessels of varying capabilities - some on standing missions, others surged to reinforce the effort - now operate across the wider arc. Their task is not only to deter opportunistic threats but also to reassure jittery crews and charterers that passage remains possible. The operation’s success is measured not in headlines but in hulls delivered. Indian-flagged LPG carriers such as  Nanda Devi ,  Pine Gas  and  Jag Vasant  have already made the passage under this system. In a theatre where delays can cascade into global shortages, each successful transit is a small victory for stability. Less noticed, but equally telling, is the navy’s humanitarian role. Warships have supplied stranded vessels with food and water, reminding seafarers that India’s presence is not merely martial but custodial. Yet steel and sensors are only part of the story. The more delicate work has been diplomatic. New Delhi has reportedly engaged regional stakeholders through back channels to secure tacit understandings that reduce the likelihood of interference. Subtle Evolution This blend of methods marks a subtle evolution in India’s grand strategy. For decades, the country’s approach to energy vulnerability leaned heavily on diversification and diplomacy. Those remain pillars. But the current crisis suggests a shift towards risk distribution: spreading exposure across routes, instruments and partners, while building the capacity to manage shocks at sea. The expansion of strategic petroleum reserves - sufficient, by some estimates, to cushion demand for over two months - has bought policymakers time. Time, in turn, has allowed the navy to operate deliberately rather than reactively. The intellectual scaffolding for such a shift is hardly new. As energy pundit Daniel Yergin has long argued, oil and gas are political commodities, and energy security is inseparable from the management of relationships. What is new is the degree to which India is operationalising that insight across domains. The navy’s guidance to merchantmen, the diplomats’ quiet assurances, and the technocrats’ stockpiles form a single system that treats the sea not as a distant expanse but as an extension of national policy. There are, of course, limits. India cannot unilaterally reopen a strait closed by great-power confrontation. Nor can it eliminate the risks inherent in a mined and contested waterway. Insurance premiums will remain elevated; some cargoes will be deferred; global prices will continue to reflect anxiety. But within these constraints, India has demonstrated an ability to carve out corridors of relative safety. The broader implication is that middle powers can do more than merely endure chokepoint crises. With the right mix of capability and craft, they can shape outcomes at the margins by keeping trade moving, calming markets and protecting their own lifelines. In an era when the map’s narrowest places are once again sites of contest, such competence is a strategic asset. For India, the lesson of Hormuz is unlikely to fade when the present crisis does. The habits formed now of integrated planning, of maritime attentiveness, of diplomatic subtlety will endure. Geography will not change; the strait will remain a pinch-point of global consequence. But the way India meets it has already begun to shift. Through the narrows, a more assured maritime power is taking shape. (The author is a retired naval aviation officer and a defence and geopolitical analyst. Views personal.)

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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