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By:

Ruddhi Phadke

22 September 2024 at 10:17:54 am

‘Sounds heard, missiles visible’

Mumbaikars recall their encounter with the missile attacks in Middle East Govandi Muslim Youth Front stage protest condemning killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatulla Khameni, at Govandi, in Mumbai, on Sunday. | Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Dombivli resident Meghana Modak who flew to Dubai 15 days ago, as a tourist told ‘The Perfect Voice’ that she heard loud sounds and huge clouds of smoke in the air when she felt something was unusual. She was out for a casual walk on Saturday, but had to...

‘Sounds heard, missiles visible’

Mumbaikars recall their encounter with the missile attacks in Middle East Govandi Muslim Youth Front stage protest condemning killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatulla Khameni, at Govandi, in Mumbai, on Sunday. | Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Dombivli resident Meghana Modak who flew to Dubai 15 days ago, as a tourist told ‘The Perfect Voice’ that she heard loud sounds and huge clouds of smoke in the air when she felt something was unusual. She was out for a casual walk on Saturday, but had to immediately rush home. She tuned in to news to find out about the US-Israel strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the Gulf. “Dubai was not their target. However, the intercepting action and the missiles that passed through could be seen and heard. We are at home. Normal routine is on. However, schools and colleges stay shut. We have been advised to go out only for the inevitable basic needs of groceries.” said Modak. Modak is in Dubai to spend some quality time with her son and his family. She is scheduled to fly back to Mumbai on Tuesday. However, the plan stands indefinitely cancelled till further notice. “The Dubai airport has been hit indefinitely. We do that know when we will be back”, said Modak. Less Scary Modak cited the situation was reasonably less scary in Dubai compared to other places in the Middle East considering Dubai was not the prime target. There are no panic-struck evacuations and or sudden rush towards bomb shelters reported. However, the falling of the missile debris is certainly creating difficult situations. “A building caught fire claiming a life because of this debris falling. People are not panicking because everyone has faith in the Dubai government that they will ensure the safety of the innocent civilians.” Modak is currently staying at Jebel Ali is a large commercial port and business hub on the southern outskirts of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. There are about 4.3 – 4.36 million Indians living in the United Arab Emirates — making them the largest expatriate community in the country and roughly 35 – 38 per cent of the UAE’s total population. Dubai has the largest share of Indians within the UAE. From residents, to students to tourists, Indians account for a huge share in Dubai. While for some, situation is safe but a long uncertain wait till further course of action is clear, while some are under constant fear for life. Wait and Watch A Mumbai-based tourist anonymously told ‘The Perfect Voice’ , “My husband, my seven-year-old son and I left for a Dubai trip to have a break from our routine lives. We were in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Soon after the conflict began, we were shifted to bomb shelters. On Sunday, we have reached Dubai. It’s wait and watch till we get further update. The recreation trip has taken a stressful turn.” Tour operators are finding it tough to plan the evacuations of tourists who are currently stranded in Dubai due to airspace closure. Mumbai-based Shashank Abhyankar, the tour manager of Rajguru Travels, said, “I am just back from a tour last week. Our group of 25 Mumbaikars is in Dubai right now. Another tour manager is with them. They were supposed to visit gold market, Bhurj Khalifa, Baps Temple on Saturday and Sunday. However, everything is shut. They are scheduled to checkout from hotel on Monday 12 pm and fly back on an Indigo flight to Mumbai. The airline has intimated that the flight stands cancelled.” While airports are flooded with stranded passengers, it is an uphill task for tour operators to bring tourists back. “Safety is not a concern in Dubai. The biggest concern is, how to get people back. Stretching the stay would mean additional cost and even if we bear the cost availability of accommodation is also a concern. We are reaching out to people who are living there since many years for some solution. We have full faith in Indian government that they will do all they can to get Indians back. However, what will they do till the airspace is closed?” cited Abhyankar.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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