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By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

Ripples before BMC elections

Congress solo threat rattles MVA Mumbai : The unilateral decision of the state Congress to contest the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections independently has apparently rattled the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) main allies and smaller parties, with hectic backstage politicking underway.   Barely a week after AICC General Secretary Ramesh Chennithala’s terse announcement, supported vociferously by Mumbai unit chief Varsha Gaikwad, there are indications of the other parties considering...

Ripples before BMC elections

Congress solo threat rattles MVA Mumbai : The unilateral decision of the state Congress to contest the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections independently has apparently rattled the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) main allies and smaller parties, with hectic backstage politicking underway.   Barely a week after AICC General Secretary Ramesh Chennithala’s terse announcement, supported vociferously by Mumbai unit chief Varsha Gaikwad, there are indications of the other parties considering counter-moves – to convince the Congress on a re-think.   The grand old party’s virtual threat not only unnerved the Nationalist Congress Party (SP), Shiv Sena (UBT) and their allies, but also the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), at which eyebrows are being raised for the purported discord in the MVA.   The Congress this week reached out to NCP (SP) President Sharad Pawar to join hands, and the latter is reportedly keen for a broader Opposition alliance that includes the MNS.   Congress insiders claim that internal surveys have not exactly painted a rosy picture for the MVA’s prospects in the BMC polls for 227 Wards, unnerving most parties even before the poll schedules are declared by the Maharashtra State Election Commission (SEC).   A worse scenario could be, the sentiments may reflect across the other important municipal corporations that will go to the hustings along with BMC, adding to the gloom in the opposition camps, they caution.   Political sources deny that any so-called ‘conditional offer’ has been made to the SS (UBT) to dump MNS - if it wants the Congress ‘hand’ behind it – as reported in some sections.   Rubbishing such theories, MNS Spokesperson Sandeep Deshpande guardedly said that “we are an independent party and all our decisions are taken by the party President Raj Thackeray”.   Reiterating that the MNS is not a constituent of the MNS, Desphande also said the party is not concerned about which leader met whom or they said what about MNS, as any final call on a poll deal would be taken only after deliberations between Raj and Uddhav Thackeray.   As per current indications, the Congress will actively explore tie-ups with several Dalit, peasants, workers and minority parties/groups - though the Samajwadi Party (SP) has said it may chart a solo path – to avoid vote-split as well as safeguard the Congress’s 140-year-old ideology.   “We are not affected by claims made by anyone from any party. We shall abide by the decisions of the party high command, which was made clear last week. The party will follow it to the hilt,” a Mumbai Congress leader told  ‘ The Perfect Voice’ .   Congress leaders continue to be apprehensive over the MNS’ old violent campaigns against north Indians and minorities which may haunt it in the civic polls, and possibly mar the chances of the opposition, already reeling under a crisis of survival after back-to-back political reverses in three state assembly polls. Meanwhile, the MVA allies continued to slam the ruling MahaYuti on various counts. Chiefly, the recent flying visits by the two Deputy CMs, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, the failing law-and-order against the recent rape-cum-murder of a minor girl in Malegaon, and the alleged suicide of a college student after he was assaulted for speaking in Hindi.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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