top of page

By:

Minal Sancheti

2 May 2026 at 12:26:53 pm

Mumbai Faces Sharper Monsoons, Rising Heat: Report

A report by the Azim Premji University warns Mumbai could see 16.8 percent rise in southwest monsoon rainfall by 2040. Mumbai: The city could witness a 16.8 percent increase in southwest monsoon rainfall by 2040, according to a climate crisis report released by the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University. The report, titled Indian Coastal Region: Climate Protection 2021–2040, was discussed on Friday during a session led by scientist and professor Santonu Goswami....

Mumbai Faces Sharper Monsoons, Rising Heat: Report

A report by the Azim Premji University warns Mumbai could see 16.8 percent rise in southwest monsoon rainfall by 2040. Mumbai: The city could witness a 16.8 percent increase in southwest monsoon rainfall by 2040, according to a climate crisis report released by the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University. The report, titled Indian Coastal Region: Climate Protection 2021–2040, was discussed on Friday during a session led by scientist and professor Santonu Goswami. The study examined the growing impact of climate change on citizens, ecosystems and traditional livelihoods across India’s coastal regions. The report states that suburban Mumbai is projected to experience summer maximum temperatures rising by 1.3°C by 2040, alongside intensified monsoon activity and longer periods of heavy rainfall. Researchers estimate that the city could face almost an additional week of intense rain during the monsoon season. Wider Shifts The findings also point to wider climatic shifts across western India. Surat and Bhavnagar in Gujarat are expected to witness southwest monsoon surges of 23 percent and 24 percent, respectively. According to the report, rising wet-bulb temperatures - a measure combining heat and humidity that determines the body’s ability to cool itself through sweating - are already making several regions increasingly vulnerable. Researchers warned that traditional knowledge systems, including Kerala’s Nakaih wind calendar, are becoming unreliable because of erratic weather patterns. “The window for adaptation is rapidly narrowing,” said Goswami, warning that the 1.5°C warming threshold could soon be reached across India’s administrative regions. The report highlights a range of climate threats facing coastal India, including rising temperatures, dangerous wet-bulb heat, intensified west coast monsoons, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, salinity intrusion, cyclone risks and growing public health concerns. Traditional livelihoods are also under strain. Members of Mumbai’s Koli fishing community have reported business losses as unpredictable rainfall disrupts the traditional drying of prawns. Goswami stressed the need for accessible climate data to strengthen local resilience planning. “Climate data democracy is essential for climate action. We are in the middle of a data tsunami. Yet we are not at a stage where anyone interested can readily download data,” he said. He added that governments, policymakers, journalists, students and activists would all play a crucial role in driving climate action. Anurag Behar, CEO of the Azim Premji Foundation, said climate change was no longer a distant concern. “Climate change is not some distant future challenge but the reality of today. 2040 is just 14 years away,” he said. Shashwat DC, Head of Research Communications at the School of Climate Change and Sustainability, called for urgent investment in climate-resilient infrastructure. “We need to think about our infrastructure for some time. We need a discussion on climate resilient infrastructure,” he said. He further noted that the climate crisis disproportionately affects daily wage labourers and gig workers, who remain among the most vulnerable to extreme weather events.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

Comments

bottom of page