top of page

By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Unshackled yet Vulnerable

Eknath Shinde’s high stakes pivot in the post-Ajit era Mumbai: The swearing-in of Sunetra Pawar as Deputy Chief Minister has optically restored the Mahayuti’s "tripod" structure, but for Eknath Shinde and his Shiv Sena faction, the ground reality has shifted seismically. The sudden exit of Ajit Pawar—often seen as the "counterweight" in the alliance—has fundamentally rewritten Shinde’s survival equation. For the last two years, Shinde operated in a high-pressure "sandwich" between Devendra...

Unshackled yet Vulnerable

Eknath Shinde’s high stakes pivot in the post-Ajit era Mumbai: The swearing-in of Sunetra Pawar as Deputy Chief Minister has optically restored the Mahayuti’s "tripod" structure, but for Eknath Shinde and his Shiv Sena faction, the ground reality has shifted seismically. The sudden exit of Ajit Pawar—often seen as the "counterweight" in the alliance—has fundamentally rewritten Shinde’s survival equation. For the last two years, Shinde operated in a high-pressure "sandwich" between Devendra Fadnavis’s strategic command and Ajit Pawar’s administrative dominance. With the latter gone, Shinde is no longer just the "other" Deputy CM; he is now the operational anchor of the government, a shift that brings both immense opportunity and existential risk. Sunetra Pawar’s sudden elevation as Maharashtra’s Deputy Chief Minister after Ajit Pawar’s tragic death has also unsettled other Shiv Sena leaders, who publicly welcomed the move but privately expressed surprise and concern. The development reshapes the Mahayuti alliance, with Eknath Shinde caught between asserting his mass appeal and managing BJP’s growing dominance. Third Wheel Until last week, Eknath Shinde often found his administrative influence curtailed by Ajit Pawar’s aggressive style. Ajit "Dada" controlled the bureaucracy and the purse strings, often leaving Shinde’s MLAs complaining about stalled files and delayed funds. How the new reality would unfold is not yet clear. With Sunetra Pawar being a political novice inducted primarily for "sympathy" and "legacy" management, Shinde is now the sole experienced administrator alongside Fadnavis. The "administrative friction" that plagued Shinde’s faction is gone. In cabinet meetings and operational governance, Shinde’s voice will likely carry significantly more weight, as he is no longer competing for airtime with a heavyweight like Ajit Pawar. Finance Dilemma The decision by Chief Minister Fadnavis to retain the Finance and Planning portfolio—rather than handing it to Sunetra Pawar—is the single most critical development for the Shiv Sena. The good news is that Shinde’s MLAs will no longer have to beg an NCP Finance Minister for development funds—a major grievance that had threatened internal revolts in the Sena camp. However, it can also turn out to be the bad news, since financial power will be completely centralized within the BJP now. Previously, Shinde could subtly play the BJP and NCP against each other to extract resources. Now, he faces a monolithic BJP command center. If Fadnavis tightens the purse strings, Shinde has no "second door" to knock on. The BMC Bargaining Chip The immediate effects of Shinde’s new fears were seen in Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and other Municipal Corporations in the MMR, where insteady of bargaining for a larger share of power, the Shiv Sena under Shinde appeared to be content with whatever it got from the BJP and quietly accepting it. This was very unlikely of their track record till now and contrary to the party insiders who were very aggressive till last week sending out signals that Shinde would bargain strongly for the demands like Mayoral post in Mumbai to assert the ‘rights of Marathi Manoos’.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

Comments

bottom of page