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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Battered Modi govt faces ultimate alliance test

A CJP supporter celebrates in Nagpur on Saturday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: For only the second time in its 12-year tenure, the Modi government has been forced to bow down. The dramatic resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is not just a cabinet reshuffle; it marks the climax of a gruelling political standoff that has left the ruling dispensation visibly wounded. What began as a student outcry over exam irregularities morphed into a massive siege, exposing cracks in the...

Battered Modi govt faces ultimate alliance test

A CJP supporter celebrates in Nagpur on Saturday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: For only the second time in its 12-year tenure, the Modi government has been forced to bow down. The dramatic resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is not just a cabinet reshuffle; it marks the climax of a gruelling political standoff that has left the ruling dispensation visibly wounded. What began as a student outcry over exam irregularities morphed into a massive siege, exposing cracks in the government's much-touted armour of invincibility. Now, as the dust settles at Jantar Mantar, the corridors of power in Delhi are whispering about a larger, more existential threat. The true challenge for the BJP no longer lies on the streets, but within the ranks of its own National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners. ​Critics and political analysts are drawing sharp parallels between this student-led movement and the farmers' agitation from a few years ago. There is a strong sentiment within government circles that, much like the Kisan protests, which faced allegations of being fuelled by foreign funding, this current uprising did not stem entirely from a genuine, organic grassroots genesis. Instead, political observers note the presence of organized anarchist elements that quickly capitalised on the national outrage. ​This time, these elements appeared far stronger, and in stark contrast, the establishment looked surprisingly weak and reactive. The ultimate giveaway of the movement's broader political ambitions came moments after Pradhan stepped down. Abhijeet Dipke, the face of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), declared from the protest stage that the resignation was merely the "first wicket". This cricket analogy was a thinly veiled political declaration, making it amply clear that the underlying agenda of the protests extends far beyond education reforms, aiming directly at a regime change. Dipke’s words guarantee that the agitation, in some form or another, will continue. Tactical Victory ​To its credit, the government did manage a tactical victory by keeping the protesters' demands strictly focused on Pradhan's resignation. By doing so, they prevented the narrative from entirely engulfing the top leadership. However, the strategic damage to the ruling party has been catastrophic. The Modi administration has spent over a decade cultivating an image of a stubborn, decisive, and unyielding force that does not cave to public pressure. That image has now taken a severe, perhaps irreversible, beating. ​ During negotiations with activist and educationist Sonam Wangchuk, the government had already made it amply clear that it was actively considering Pradhan's exit. Yet, it inexplicably took almost a week to finally pull the plug and end the standoff. This delay highlights the enormity of the internal challenges and a creeping paralysis within the highest echelons of power. The establishment was likely suffering from a deep-seated complacency, overconfidently assuming the agitation would naturally fizzle out. It took more than 20 days of Wangchuk's hunger strike to finally shatter that hubris and force Delhi’s hand. ​ When juxtaposed with the last four major national agitations—stretching all the way from the Ram Mandir movement to the Anna Hazare anti-corruption crusade—the government's handling of this crisis stands out as an anomaly. The use of police force and state machinery remained remarkably minimal this time around. Despite this restrained approach, the reputational blow the government has suffered appears to be the maximum it has ever faced. A government that prides itself on immense strength is now being perceived as vulnerable. Political Mileage ​In the battle for political mileage, the opposition naturally tried to swoop in. The Congress party and Rahul Gandhi made concerted efforts to hijack the momentum mid-way, attempting to paint the movement in their own political colours. But the youth on the streets fiercely guarded their independence. The ultimate credit for bringing the government to its knees has squarely gone to Dipke. He emerged as the undisputed architect of the victory, leaving the traditional political opposition watching from the sidelines. Real Quake ​But the real political earthquake is yet to be measured. The government's bruised image sets the stage for its toughest political test yet. A weakened BJP center immediately alters the power dynamics within the NDA. The regional satraps and political allies who prop up the Modi government are watching closely. They have witnessed the ruling party blink, and they have seen that the mighty center can be forced into submission. ​ The immediate future of this administration now hinges completely on how these allies interpret this vulnerability. Will they demand larger portfolios? Will they force policy rollbacks of their own? The script for the next act of this high-stakes political play will not be written by the opposition, nor by the activists on the streets. It will be authored by the NDA allies who sit inside the government. For the Modi administration, the real crisis has only just begun. Prahlad Joshi appointed as Education Minister Union Minister Prahlad Joshi has been appointed as Education Minister following Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation from the post on Saturday. Joshi has been given additional charge of the Education Ministry besides his role as Consumer Affairs Minister. A Rashtrapati Bhavan communique said the President, as advised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has accepted the resignation of Pradhan with immediate effect. It said that on the advice of the Prime Minister, the President has directed that Joshi, Cabinet Minister, be assigned the charge of the Ministry of Education, in addition to his own duties. Earlier in the day, Pradhan resigned from his post following the Cockroach Janta Party-led student protests across the country, demanding his ouster over the NEET paper leak controversy. Pradhan said it is not a matter of "individual prestige" for him and he is disturbed to see the series of events that have unfolded in the last 10 days.

Indian Shipbuilding A Must Win Marathon

Shipbuilding

With a coastline of 7500 KM, it is hard to imagine, that for the first 20 years (1947-1967) India had no ‘shipping ministry’. In 1967 a Shipping ministry “coupled” with ROAD transport was established. Since then, this ministry has been on a name changing ride, not once, not twice but six times. In 2009 the “ROAD Transport and Highways” was de-coupled and ‘Shipping’ ministry was formed. Turning point came in 2015 with a clear maritime vision for 2030 and 2047. Ministry was re-christened, aptly to Ministry of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” in 2020.


Why is Shipbuilding important for a country?

a. A Shipyard becomes an opportunity hub and like a queen bee requires the support of an industrial colony to manufacture machinery and equipment.

b. National Shipyards support fleet renewal needs of the Navy.

c. Contributes to national GDP, increases inflow of FOREX.


Korea shipbuilding is 8% of GDP. Japan’s automobile industry is 2.9% of GDP. India’s shipbuilding a meagre 0.000578% of GDP. In context, India’s pharmaceutical industry, ranked third largest in the world is 1.72% of India’s GDP.


International Shipbuilding Market

The market is estimated to reach around USD 200 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.84%. While India is at bottom with 0.07% of world share, behind Philippines 1.5% and Vietnam 1%, however on the positive side, India has done well in taking care of its defence needs, with 37 of 39 Naval ships being built in India yards. Rear Admiral S Shrikhande researching on maritime as a Fellow at Wollongong University, Australia, says “Shipbuilding in India needs both, serious incentivisation and dogged determination and not harping on being a big ship breaking country. That Garden Reach shipyard has a $54 million order for merchant ships from a German owner, is a good sign.”


Were Shipyards of 20th century in Flight mode?

Prominent shipyards in India were built in the colonial period. Mazagon Dock 1774, Garden reach 1884, Hindustan shipyard 1941 to cater to British navy and merchant fleet needs. Cochin shipyard 1972, Adani Katupalli 2013, Reliance Naval and Engineering, Rajula Gujarat 1997 and others have limited capacity, hence a lot more work to do. Capt. Subhangshu Dutt (Singapore) a mariner and now a shipowner, says “GOI should hold hands in any collaboration till the marriage with the foreign entity is reasonably stable. He also suggests that “new shipbuilding sites should be given to existing successful shipyards since they have decades of experience and talent. Consortium of 3 or more parties may also be good idea”.


Shipbuilding GOLD

As per SPLASH report the demand for LCO2 carriers could reach 2,500 ships by 2050. As per other estimates, 40% of global fleet of ships could have wind propulsion by 2050. A surge in such vessels is due to an unparallel waves of decarbonization in the shipping industry. Demand for ships with ‘carbon neutral’ badges, such as Dual fuel, Wind assisted, Nuclear fuel ships, Hydrogen powered ships, Liquified CO2 (LCO2) carrier, is outstripping supply. A must in the ‘bucket list’ of every Shipyard. Pinning down a standard ROI in shipbuilding is not easy, but experts suggest it could range from 4% to 15% for the high demand ‘carbon neutral’ ships. While an LNG new build vessel could cost US$ 250 million upwards.


International collaboration

On China’s shipbuilding success story, Manoj Pandalanghat (Singapore) a mariner and ship owner believes that “China has around 50 active Shipyards. Each have a few large dry docks. In each dock two or more large vessels are built simultaneously. Thus, a single yard is able to roll out 2/3 vessels/month, 36 vessels/year and 50 shipyards roll out 1800 vessels/year”.


China could be a jaldi-5, but India needs a sturdy Mount Fiji. Besides technology, Japanese bring the most important hand baggage of soft-skills and culture, essential for success from keel laying to delivery. Maruti’s is a standing example.


Food for thought for New Delhi

a. Expertise: Hire Naval Architects and shipbuilding experts with current international experience.

b. Government assistance: Land, Financial support, subsidies and timebound clearances.

c. Monitoring: PMO should monitor the first 5 to 10 years till Shipbuilding takes-off on this long-haul flight to destination 2047.


India’s Shipbuilding is expected to grow to $237 billion by year 2047. On a back of the envelope calculations this works out to about 4% of India’s 2047 projected GDP of $ 5 trillion. While cars are driven on roads, however the Ministry of roads and transport has little to do with “Automobile manufacturing”. On a similar note, ‘Shipbuilding’ as an industry has little to do with Ports, Shipping and Waterways, thus it may be worthwhile to consider a separate ‘Ship-building’ wing in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways headed by a dynamic cabinet rank minister. Since 2047 targets are stiff and an uphill task, so in all probabilities, the officials in Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways are likely to push beneath the carpet, delays and failures of Shipbuilding with sweet success stories of “Ports, Shipping and Waterways” and if this does happen then India will not only miss the Shipbuilding bus of 21st century but a lot more from a national security and strategic perspective.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empaneled with IMO as a specialist consultant. Views personal.)

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