Indosphere Under Threat: Why and How

Under China’s expanding shadow, the once-dominant Indosphere faces slow erosion born as much of external pressure as of India’s own long neglect.

The term Indosphere, post its coinage around eight decades ago, was broadly understood to include the whole of Southeast Asia, except the northern or one third of Vietnam. It, by definition as well as by factual development, excludes the later born (2002) and newly admitted (2026) ASEAN member state of Timor Leste. A lot can be said or commented upon two things here; the older conception - a categorical exclusion of northern Vietnam, especially in view of it now being a unified nation since 1975, as well as a new paradigm - similar exclusion of the territory which once formed a part of the Indonesian archipelago and thus could easily have passed as part of the Indosphere, but fell out to shape up as a separate, though tiny, state of Timor Leste, clearly under influence of Western colonial ambition and machinations. That, however, can be reserved for exposition sometime later, in view of the seriousness that the main focus of this article viz. existential threat to the base of ‘Indosphere’ deserves.

A Boon and a Curse

Is the threat to Indosphere emanating from the Sinosphere? Answer is in the negative as well as affirmative. Negative, because it is certainly not threatened in any way by the constituents of the Sinosphere – Mongolia, Japan, Koreas, and northern Vietnam. But affirmative in the sense of the ever-expanding clout of the mother country China, casting its shadow all over Southeast Asia from various angles. China’s physical proximity – land border with three of them (Myanmar, Laos & Vietnam), and maritime border with five of them (Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia & Indonesia) - is a boon as well as a curse for the concerned; boon in the form of trading opportunities, and curse in many other ways ranging from encroachments in the sea including their exclusive economic zones, to interference with river water-flows resulting in damage to the livelihoods of dependent population, not to speak of China’s overwhelming influence over ASEAN affairs as well as the domestic affairs of some of the member states.

The main contributor towards China’s overwhelming presence and influence in Southeast Asia is the ever-increasing number of Chinese settlers in the mainland subregion - especially in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. The inflow in Thailand is not so much now, but it was at a high level till the 19th century, spilling over in the 20th century, thereby constituting around 15% of the country’s population as on date, and resulting into numerous citizens of Chinese or mixed descent controlling business and occupying high political positions. The legal and illegal Chinese settlers in Myanmar are engaged in drug-trafficking across borders and illegal mining causing environmental hazards. Those in Laos have virtually taken over all business activities there. Those in Cambodia are infamously engaged in cyber-scams of global scales. The net effect is not only weakening of the local economies but also ever-tightening of the Chinese grip. In Malaysia, the ethnic Chinese once, till a few decades back, constituted one fourth of the total population, and control the economic affairs of the country as on date. In Indonesia, the ethnic Chinese are far less in numbers, but virtually rule over the country’s commerce. Singapore is anyway the ethnic Chinese majority country of Southeast Asia, having separated from the Malaysian Federation in the 1960s based essentially on racial considerations.

Contrast this with the Indian or Indic influence in that geography today. Since Southeast Asia had been heavily Indic-influenced, that too for at least one and a half millennium at a stretch, it earned the acknowledgement as ‘Indosphere’. However, there are clear signs that hint at slow and gradual erosion of that influence occurring over a period of time through a process of consistent dilution and diversions.

Sinic Influence

The dilution is caused naturally through absence of enough reinforcement on one hand, and simultaneous and forceful spread of another competing influence on the other hand. The competing influence is obviously China’s or Sinic. Although it is known that it was not Southeast Asia alone that partook in absorbing the Indic civilizational influence; China too was very much a part of that process, especially during the middle centuries of the first millennium. Rather, while the said influence spread gradually over the Southeast Asian territories, the Chinese court in a contrast, under various dynasties but especially under the Tang, voluntarily intensified that process at its end, to benefit maximum in a compressed time-frame, by importing volumes of Buddhist texts, and settling a number of Indian Buddhist scholars, tasking them with translations. It was only later, in the second millennium, that China after having absorbed and digested the Indic wisdom, took a different turn and gradually started viewing India or the Indic influence as a rival force and a potential challenge to is hegemonic aspirations in the vicinity.

Honestly, India, in its current shape of things, is no match for the Chinese clout over the Indosphere. Despite the ‘Look East’ policy posture adopted in the 1990s, reinforced with comparatively intensified and pointed thrust through its ‘Act East’ policy nudge since 2014, there is a great backlog of desirable actions that is staring India in its face. This backlog, as it relates to triggering Indic influence’s erosion through the pre-colonial as well as colonial period in India and Southeast Asia, is also attributable to Indian neglect or inaction through many post-independence decades. It is high time for high and well-balanced action to arrest further erosion of Indic influence, revitalize it through a variety of interventions, and thereby avoid potential shrinkage of the Indosphere.

(The writer is a Ph.D. researcher in international relations. Views personal.)