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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Internal Strife, Tribal Discontent in North Maharashtra

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

North Maharashtra

With barely a month to go for the Maharashtra Assembly election, the Mahayuti coalition, particularly the BJP, is grappling with a confluence of challenges that threaten its electoral prospects in north Maharashtra.


The perennial rivalry between veteran politician Eknath Khadse on the one hand, and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and his confidante, Girish Mahajan on the other, is emblematic of these problems.


Following Khadse’s departure from the BJP in 2020 to join Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP), he has publicly declared that his return to the BJP is now a “closed option” due to what he describes as systematic humiliation at the hands of state party leaders.


Despite campaigning for his daughter-in-law Raksha Khadse during the Lok Sabha election, Khadse’s homecoming has been thwarted by internal opposition from Fadnavis and state minister Girish Mahajan.


The rivalry between Khadse and Mahajan epitomizes the personal stakes involved in the coming struggle. Both hail from Jalgaon, and their competition for dominance in the region has long been a source of ongoing strife. With daughter Rohini, who head the women’s wing in the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP), actively seeking a ticket for the Muktainagar assembly seat, the familial stakes further complicate the narrative even as Maharashtra BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule’s recent comments attempt to position Khadse as a BJP loyalist.


The BJP’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year serves as a sobering reminder of their challenges in north Maharashtra. The MVA secured six of the eight seats in a region that had previously backed the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena for over a decade. The Mahayuti coalition had managed to hold onto only two seats in Jalgaon district.


The discontent among tribal voters poses another significant hurdle as this demographic has leaned toward the opposition MVA during the recent Lok Sabha election, driven by grievances linked to the Shinde government’s plans to grant tribal status to the Dhangar community - a move perceived as jeopardizing their reservation entitlements.


In a bid to mitigate discontent, the Mahayuti has drastically adjusted its stance on agricultural policies, particularly concerning onion farmers whose discontentment was a major cause in the ruling coalition’s poor show in this region during the Lok Sabha polls. Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s public apology to farmers during a rally in Nashik in August reflects an awareness of the critical importance of rural support in the forthcoming elections.


The ruling Shiv Sena under CM Shinde has its own set of challenges here. A cohort of prominent Shiv Sena leaders - Gulabrao Patil, Dada Bhuse and Suhas Kande – who had joined Shinde in his 2022 revolt, will now have to prove their loyalty to their Chief minister and their mettle in securing the region’s critical votes for the Mahayuti.


Gulabrao Patil, the guardian minister for Jalgaon, has projected optimism, asserting that the Mahayuti alliance will make significant gains, claiming it can secure at least 35 seats in the region.


As the Mahayuti warily navigate north Maharashtra’s complex electoral waters, the interplay of community dynamics, policy adjustments and past grievances will prove whether Patil can make good of his boast.

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