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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

International Film Festival of India: Celebrating Cinema Across Borders

Updated: Nov 25, 2024

International Film Festival of India

The International Film Festival of India (IFFI) is a grand celebration of cinema that brings together filmmakers and film lovers from across the globe. For many, including myself, it’s more than just a festival—it’s a journey into the world of stories, creativity, and cultural exchange.


A Journey Through Time IFFI began in 1952 as a way to showcase the best of world cinema and create a platform for cultural exchange. The first edition, held in Mumbai, featured 40 films from 21 countries and marked the beginning of India’s global engagement with cinema.


Since 2004, Goa has been the festival's permanent home, and its picturesque beauty adds to the charm of this prestigious event. Organized by the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting along with the Entertainment Society of Goa, IFFI has grown into one of the most important film festivals in Asia.


A Platform for Global Cinema

IFFI celebrates the art of filmmaking with a rich lineup of feature films, documentaries, and animations. It hosts competitive sections like the International Competition, with the prestigious Golden Peacock award, and the Indian Panorama, which showcases the diversity of Indian cinema through regional storytelling.


This year, a new International Debut section will spotlight emerging filmmakers. Masterclasses, tributes to legendary filmmakers, and retrospectives continue to make IFFI a space for learning and inspiration.


Highlights of IFFI 2024

The 55th edition of IFFI promises an exciting lineup of over 200 films from 70 countries. Wim Wenders’ Perfect Days will open the festival, and retrospectives of Indian legend Satyajit Ray and Japanese filmmaker Yasujiro Ozu are among the key attractions.


In keeping with the latest trends, IFFI 2024 will feature immersive screenings in virtual reality and workshops on AI-powered storytelling. A special Goa Spotlight section will showcase films inspired by the culture and stories of Goa.


Supporting Talent and Innovation

IFFI isn’t just about screenings; it’s also about nurturing talent. Initiatives like the Short Film Center and the Film Bazaar help emerging filmmakers connect with producers and distributors. Workshops on modern filmmaking techniques, including AI and visual effects, show the festival’s commitment to innovation.


A Global Cultural Exchange

IFFI serves as a melting pot of ideas, where filmmakers, students, and audiences engage in discussions that transcend borders. The presence of global stars alongside Indian cinema icons highlights the festival’s international appeal.


More Than Just Films

During the festival, Goa comes alive with cultural events, exhibitions, and live performances, making IFFI a complete celebration of creativity. It’s not just about cinema; it’s about art, culture, and storytelling in all its forms.


A Legacy of Storytelling

Over seven decades, IFFI has played a key role in putting India on the global cinematic map. It honors the greats of cinema while embracing new technologies and ideas, showing how storytelling evolves over time.

As IFFI 2024 unfolds, it reminds us of the power of cinema to connect and inspire. For someone like me, who has witnessed its magic over the years, it remains a shining example of how stories can transcend borders and touch hearts.


Cinema, after all, is not just about entertainment—it’s about bringing people together. And IFFI is a celebration of that unity.


(The author is a communication professional. Views personal.)

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