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By:

Dr. V.L. Dharurkar

12 February 2025 at 2:53:17 pm

The Unlikeliest Constant

Why India’s bond with Russia survives sanctions, summits and shifting global power. In an era defined by broken alliances and transactional diplomacy, the India-Russia relationship has proved oddly resilient. While the West seeks to isolate Vladimir Putin over Ukraine and China tests the limits of American power in Asia, India and Russia continue to conduct business with an ease that defies geopolitical fashion. Their partnership, rooted in Cold War history but adapted to a fiercely...

The Unlikeliest Constant

Why India’s bond with Russia survives sanctions, summits and shifting global power. In an era defined by broken alliances and transactional diplomacy, the India-Russia relationship has proved oddly resilient. While the West seeks to isolate Vladimir Putin over Ukraine and China tests the limits of American power in Asia, India and Russia continue to conduct business with an ease that defies geopolitical fashion. Their partnership, rooted in Cold War history but adapted to a fiercely multipolar present, has become one of the quiet constants of global politics. India’s ties with Moscow stretch back to the aftermath of the second world war, deepening during the Soviet era and reaching their emotional peak under Indira Gandhi in 1971. Those were years when ideology and necessity aligned. The Soviet Union is long gone, and today’s India is scarcely the Congress-led, state-heavy economy of old. Yet the relationship did not fade with the red flag. It was rebooted in 2000 when Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Putin forged what they called a “special and privileged strategic partnership.” Narendra Modi has since made it more pragmatic, more commercial and no less durable. Common Interests The glue holding the relationship together is not nostalgia but interest. Russia offers what India needs at scale: defence hardware, energy, fertilisers and strategic depth. India, for its part, offers Russia a massive market, diplomatic breathing room and the legitimacy of engagement at a time when Europe and America keep their distance. The war in Ukraine has only sharpened that logic. As western buyers recoiled from Russian crude, India stepped in with enthusiasm, becoming one of Moscow’s largest oil customers. Discounts eased India’s inflationary pressures while keeping Russia’s export revenues flowing. Washington protested. Delhi ignored it. Strategic autonomy, long a slogan of Indian diplomacy, suddenly acquired a very visible balance-sheet. Behind the oil tankers lies a deeper strategic symmetry. Russia has pivoted from west to east, not out of philosophical conviction but because isolation has given it little choice. It now sees Asia, above all China and India, as its economic rear-guard. India, meanwhile, sees Russia as both hedge and partner: a hedge against American overreach, and a partner in weapons systems that Western suppliers are often reluctant to share on easy terms. Defence Ties Defence remains the hard core of the relationship. From fighter aircraft to missile systems and submarines, Russian technology still underpins large sections of India’s military machine. Even as India diversifies suppliers to include France, Israel and America, Russia remains the single most embedded defence partner. This explains why sanctions have dented, but not broken, military cooperation. Economics, too, is being retooled. Bilateral trade has surged since 2022, heavily tilted in Russia’s favour because of energy imports. Both sides speak of pushing it towards $100 billion in the coming years. That will require India to sell far more than pharmaceuticals, tea and engineering goods. It will require Indian firms to understand Russian consumers, logistics snarls and payment systems insulated from the dollar. There is also a demographic logic emerging. Russia, ageing and labour-starved, needs skilled workers. India, youthful and credential-rich, is keen to export labour. Agreements to place tens of thousands of Indian workers in Russian industry point to a new phase of engagement. Modi has also sought to clothe realpolitik in culture. Visa relaxations, tourism drives and talk of reviving old cinematic and artistic exchanges evoke the 1970s, when Raj Kapoor was as beloved in Moscow as in Mumbai. Yet this relationship is not without its cracks. Russia’s growing closeness to China unsettles Indian strategists who remain locked in an unresolved standoff along their Himalayan frontier. Moscow insists it can manage both friendships even as New Delhi quietly doubts it. Meanwhile, India’s parallel courtship of the West through the Quad, defence deals with America and trade talks with Europe, creates an inevitable tension with its Russian alignment. India insists it can walk multiple paths at once. So far, it has managed to do so with surprising agility. The India–Russia partnership is neither sentimental nor revolutionary. It is conservative in the oldest sense: it preserves arrangements that continue to deliver power, profit and protection. In a world tilting towards blocs and binaries, India is betting that strategic ambiguity is still viable.   (The writer is a researcher and expert in foreign affairs. Views personal.)

Is Ajit unconquerable?

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Ajit

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar is currently receiving criticism from all the sides. His trusted associates across Maharashtra have been leaving him to join his uncle, while he had been receiving criticism from leaders in the Mahayuti coalition. The RSS cadres too had not hidden their discomfort with him. On this backdrop, it will be interesting to see whether he is able to prove his mantle and emerge unconquerable as his name suggests.


Former minister and BJP leader from Solapur Lakshman Dhoble left the party on Friday to join the Nationalist Congress Party (SP) under Sharad Pawar. While leaving the BJP he blamed Ajit Pawar for the troubles he had been creating. In Aurangabad, the party had to expel MLC Satish Chavan for anti-party activists. News stories regarding some or the other leader in his home district Pune leaving his side and joining his uncle’s party have become a daily routine over past month or so. Yet, ‘Dada’ (elder brother) as he is often referred to as by his followers, is undeterred and following the path he had chosen for himself over a year ago.

“All those leaving me are doing so because they know that they won’t get to contest from our party. They stand a better chance on the other side because there they have a vacuum of over 40 seats since we left them,” he says convincingly when asked about those leaving him. On rest of the criticism, he is sure that his unwavering dedication to work shall shut the mouths of all his critics.


He had to keep low due to bad performance in the Lok Sabha election. After the elections he was openly criticized even by an ally and fellow deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis who attributed the alliance’s poor performance to the NCP’s “inability” to convert support into votes for its allies. The issue is one fourth of the undivided NCP’s votes came from the minorities, which did not go the Mahayuti candidates during Lok Sabha polls.


But, this shortcoming is likely to be the best tool for him in the assembly election, as he is being perceived as the only Mahayuti leader who has an ability to attract Muslim votes. He is even nurturing his image accordingly and openly saying in advertisements that he hasn’t shed his ‘secular’ ideology even though he has joined the BJP for its development agenda.


Ajit Pawar is restless and ambitious. At a recent program, he spoke out his desire to become Chief Minister openly. He also nurtures a deep sense of resentment within, for not getting a chance to become the Chief Minister of the state in spite of swearing in for five times as Deputy Chief Minister in span of past two decades. His current politics, since past year and a half, when he broke away from his uncle Sharad Pawar, has been driven by this deep resentment.

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