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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Is Bollywood’s Re-release Trend Sustainable?

Updated: Feb 3, 2025

Re-release Trend

In 2024, Bollywood’s resurrection wasn’t just about fresh hits but also about old favourites that were making a grand comeback. While the year kicked off with the surprise success of Stree 2, the real story was the industry’s embrace of nostalgia - the re-release of films that once slipped through the cracks. As the trend gained momentum, industry insiders and critics alike found themselves at a crossroads. Is this a temporary fling, or has Bollywood unlocked a new revenue model?


Film trade analyst Rohit Jaiswal has defended the practice of re-releasing old gems, noting the substantial, albeit modest, financial returns. “The business from re-releases isn’t as high as Rs 100 crore, as some reports claim, but Rs 60-70 crore nett is still significant,” he said. The films that have benefited from this resurgence are a diverse mix - Tumbbad, Rockstar, Laila Majnu and Veer Zaara - each offering something unique. For example, the re-release of Tumbbad not only breathed new life into the film itself but reignited Sohum Shah’s career, giving him a second shot at fame.


Yet, not everyone shares Jaiswal’s optimism. Trade expert Joginder Tuteja calls the re-release trend an “overdone fallacy.” He argues that the financial rewards aren’t as monumental as they might seem. “Tumbbad made about Rs 30-32 crore; Laila Majnu around Rs 7-8 crore, Rockstar about Rs 7-8 crore, Rehna Hai TereDil Mein between Rs 5-7 crore, and Veer Zaara around Rs 3-4 crore,” Tuteja contends. His numbers suggest that the returns from re-releases are far from game-changing, and the public’s nostalgic impulse might not be enough to sustain the trend long-term.


Despite these differences of opinion, Tumbbad’s January re-release undeniably sparked significant interest. Initially released to mixed reviews in 2018, the film's unique premise—focused on a boy’s search for a cursed ancestral treasure—failed to make waves at the box office with just Rs 13.5 crore. However, when it was re-released in 2024, Tumbbad garnered nearly Rs 7 crore within just three days, a reminder of its untapped potential. This financial windfall gave Bollywood a much-needed boost after a sharp decline in box-office revenues – Rs. 6,868 crore from January to August 2024, a 7.5 percent drop from the previous year, according to Ormax Media.


But it isn’t just the underperforming cult classics like Tumbbad that are seeing success in their second acts. The rise of nostalgic re-releases is becoming a full-fledged movement, with hits like Maine Pyar Kiya (1989), Hum Aapke Hain Koun..!(1994), and Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge (1995) drawing packed theaters. More recent films such as Zindagi Na MilegiDobara (2011) and Dangal (2016) have also benefitted from nostalgia-driven ticket sales. Even modest films, like Rehna Hai TereDil Mein and Laila Majnu, have been given second chances due to the newfound stardom of actors like TriptiiDimri and the loyalty of their niche fanbases.


India is not the only country embracing the power of nostalgia. Classic American films like Home Alone and Jurassic Park have been re-released to strong earnings globally, proving that the appeal of revisiting cinematic favourites knows no borders. Anthropologist Arjun Appadurai, in his 2019 essay The Ready-Made Pleasures of Déjà Vu: Repeat Viewing of Bollywood Films, describes repeat viewings as a sign of “committed connoisseurship.” In Mumbai, the joy of re-experiencing films is often tied to an intellectual exercise, where film buffs savour every detail, relishing in their deep knowledge of the classics.


Bollywood, much like the rest of the world, has embraced this trend not just as a financial opportunity but as a way to celebrate and preserve its cultural heritage. For filmmakers, re-releases are an opportunity to connect with audiences old and new, rekindling interest in films that may have once been overlooked or underappreciated. As theaters across the country screen old favourites, the enthusiasm from audiences young and old alike seems to indicate that this trend is more than just a momentary distraction.


It remains to be seen whether Bollywood’s nostalgia wave will prove to be a lasting force in the industry or a passing fad. For now, it’s clear that re-releases are giving the film industry a much-needed breath of fresh air, and perhaps, a new way forward.

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