top of page

By:

Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

J&K Election: A Defining Moment

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

J&K Election: A Defining Moment

As Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) prepares for its first major electoral exercise since the abrogation of Article 370, the 2024 election will not merely be a contest for power but a referendum on the future of democracy in the Valley.

The outcome will have far-reaching implications, not just for the people of J&K but for the broader narrative of Indian democracy. The election will reveal whether the Narendra Modi-led NDA’s policies have succeeded in winning the hearts and minds of the populace or whether the quest for peace and stability remains elusive.

From Insurgency to Article 370

Once a princely state, Kashmir has long been a flashpoint in South Asia, with its roots of conflict stretching back to the partition of British India in 1947. The region is a battleground for competing nationalisms, with India and Pakistan claiming it but only having control over certain areas.

The insurgency that began here in the late 1980s, fuelled by a combination of local discontent and external support, led to widespread violence, human rights abuses, and economic stagnation.

On August 5, 2019, the BJP-led central government under PM Modi took the momentous decision to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian Constitution which had granted J & K special autonomy. This move was presented as a means to fully integrate J&K into the Indian Union, with promises of economic development, improved security, and political stability. The abrogation was met with mixed reactions—celebrated by many across India but met with scepticism and opposition by parties like the Congress and some in J&K and beyond.

As the ruling party, the BJP is expected to leverage its position of power and the narrative of development and security post-Article 370 abrogation. The party’s strategy in the coming election will likely focus on showcasing the infrastructure projects initiated in the region and the promise of economic growth. However, the BJP must contend with the lingering discontent over the abrogation and how it was executed.

A dominant force in J&K politics for decades, the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC), led by the Abdullah family, is poised to be a formidable challenger. The party has consistently opposed the abrogation of Article 370, framing it as an assault on the region’s identity and autonomy. The NC’s campaign is expected to revolve around promises to restore the region’s special status and push back against what it perceives as central government overreach.

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), another key player led by Mehbooba Mufti, has also been vocal in its opposition to the scrapping of Article 370. The PDP is likely to focus on addressing the alienation felt by many in the region. However, the party has faced internal challenges and a shrinking support base since its controversial alliance with the BJP earlier, which may affect its performance. Apni Party, a relatively new entrant to the political landscape founded by Altaf Bukhari, positions itself as a centrist force advocating for pragmatic politics and development. Distancing itself from the polarising debates on Article 370, the party focuses instead on issues like job creation, infrastructure, and good governance. Its success will depend on appealing to voters tired of traditional politics and yearning for tangible progress.

Then there is the Congress party, which has struggled to maintain a strong foothold in J&K in recent years. The party’s stance on Article 370 has been ambiguous, with leaders airing conflicting views.


The Stakes

The region’s political landscape has been profoundly altered by the events of 2019, and the election will test whether the promises of development and integration made by the central government resonate with the electorate.

While violence has decreased, the spectre of terrorism remains, with sporadic attacks continuing to disrupt the fragile peace. There has been an upsurge in militancy in Jammu since the beginning of the year. In January 2024, terrorists gunned down seven civilians in Dhangri village, and Captain Deepak Singh was killed in last week’s encounter in Doda. The election will naturally take place under tight security, with the government keen to project an image of normalcy and progress. Yet, deep-seated mistrust between the local population and the central government, the legacy of violence, and the geopolitical sensitivities surrounding Kashmir all pose significant hurdles. Nevertheless, the 2024 election has the potential to be a transformative moment, offering a chance for J & K to redefine its future in a way that aligns with the aspirations of its people while ensuring long-term peace and stability in the region.

In this most delicate of regions, the ballot box will speak volumes about the past, present, and future of a land that has long been at the heart of South Asia’s geopolitical chessboard.

Comments

bottom of page