The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

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While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Killing off 'Squid Game' characters is happiness, says writer

Alicia Rancilo
Dec 28, 2024
3 min read

Updated: Jan 2, 2025

Los Angeles: Viewers may gasp, cringe or cry out watching characters die on Netflix's “Squid Game”, but those simulated deaths have a different effect on its creator, writer and director. Instead, Hwang Dong-hyuk feels happiness seeing them go.

The show has a huge cast and Hwang says it was “really difficult” to manage everyone on set.

As characters would die, Hwang recalls saying to the actors on their last day, “'Oh no! How sad! I won't see you tomorrow,' but I was always smiling inside.”

“Squid Game” season two premiered Thursday. It once again stars Lee Jung-jae and centres around a secret competition in South Korea that targets people in debt and the winner gets a big cash prize. What they don't know is that losing the game is deadly.

Hwang originally conceived of the show 15 years ago as a two-hour film but it failed to gain traction with financiers or even interested actors. He put it aside and worked on other films instead. He then had the idea to make it a TV series instead and took the project to Netflix. There, it could reach a wide audience.

“I never in my wildest dream thought it was going to be this huge,” said Hwang, who spoke with the AP about the show and what comes next. Answers have been edited for clarity and length.

What have you learned from “Squid Game”?

I learned that I shouldn't give up. If you love something and if you want to create something, it might not work now, but the time might come later. Or that idea could be the source of inspiration for something else.

You've already finished filming season three of “Squid Game”. Have you thought about what your next project will be?

I'm afraid to talk about it but it's a feature film taking place 10-20 years in the future. It's darker than “Squid Game”. It's going to be quite cruel, quite sad, but at the same time quite quirky and humorous.

What films and TV shows do you enjoy?

I used to think you had to have a specific taste to be cool, but I actually think I'm very omnivorous. I like to watch anything. When I'm on the couch watching TV, sometimes I watch CNN or Fox News. And then National Geographic and nature documentaries, I also watch some very soapy Korean shows or reality TV as well. I hop around and watch everything that's kind of happening in the world.

With a series, I often don't stick with it the whole way through. There's only about like five shows that I watched until the very end, like “Breaking Bad” and “Why Women Kill”.

Would you ever want to direct a US production or Hollywood actors?

Of course. I studied film school at the University of Southern California and there are so many people I'd love to work with. I have had those offers since “Squid Game”, but because I'm a writer-director I think I'm best when I'm working with Korean actors, giving direction in Korean with my Korean script. But, if I come across an amazing scrip, why not? I'd love to work with Jake Gyllenhaal.

There are more characters in season two of “Squid Game”. Why is that?

With seasons two and three, I had more screen time for more characters. This time around we have a lot of younger characters. When I was creating season one, I thought it was very hard for you to be up to your neck in debt when you're only in your 20s or 30s.

I thought you had to be at least middle-aged to need money and want to join the Squid Game. But the world has changed. Now I feel like there are less decent jobs for young people and they feel like working hard doesn't even get them to middle class. They want to hit the jackpot, so that's why they invest in cryptocurrency.

In Korea, there are a lot of young people in their early 20s or 30s turning to online gambling. I wanted to show what society really is like today.

Season two of “Squid Game” has already been nominated for a Golden Globe which is a good sign. Can you say anything about season three of “Squid Game”?

It's better than season two.

-AP

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