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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Konkan’s Conundrums


Konkan’s Conundrums

As the countdown to November 20 grows louder, all eyes are on Raigad district in the Konkan, which has become a classic microcosm of Maharashtra’s shifting political alignments in wake of the splits within the Shiv Sena in 2022 and the NCP in July 2023.


In the Assembly segments of Shrivardhan and Mahad, the prestige of tall regional leaders is on the line. At the heart of the Shrivardhan contest is Aditi Tatkare, the incumbent MLA from the ruling Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and daughter of Raigad MP Sunil Tatkare.


The Minister for Women and Child Development in the ruling Mahayuti, she successfully held the constituency – a Tatkare family borough – in the 2019 Assembly polls, overcoming fierce competition and the historical dominance of the then undivided Shiv Sena in the area.


The darkest cloud on Aditi’s horizon has been Bharat Gogawale, the vocal whip of CM Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena who, hitherto, had been the fiercest opponent of taking the Ajit Pawar-led NCP into the Mahayuti’s bandwagon. Gogawale had vociferously opposed Aditi’s appointment as Raigad’s Guardian Minister last year. The edge to Gogawale’s anger was made keener when he did not get a ministerial berth in the Mahayuti cabinet expansion – all the more reason for him to channelize his spleen on Aditi Tatkare.


Yet, after more than a year, tempers appear to have cooled for the sake of strategic objectives. Aditi has said that Gogawale and the Shinde Sena did aid in her father’s victory in the Lok Sabha election.


Gogawale, himself no mean satrap, is seeking re-election for the fourth consecutive time from the neighbouring Assembly segment of Mahad. ‘Bharat sheth’ – as he is popularly known – claims that the Mahayuti will claim all Assembly seats in Raigad, implying that the schism between himself and the Tatkares are bygone.


CM Shinde’s pacification of his party colleague came in form of Gogawale’s appointment as Chairman of the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation (MSRTC), with a bid to kill two birds with one stone: give his Shiv Sena greater leverage in local constituencies, especially in the coastal Konkan region and make sure allies within the Mahayuti, that is his party and the NCP work as smoothly as possible.


All that said, the key question remains whether the Tatkare family’s political legacy can endure the test of factionalism and changing alliances and whether the Sena and the NCP have campaigned as wholeheartedly for each other as they claim.


Meanwhile, Guhagar Assembly segment in Konkan’s Ratnagiri is shaping up to be a humdinger: Uddhav Thackeray’s point man, the mercurial Bhaskar Jadhav, who is seeking a fourth term as the MVA’s (SS-UBT) candidate, is up against a determined coalition of ruling BJP-Shiv Sena forces who have propped Rajesh Bendal, a former municipal council president of Guhagar.


Shinde’s Shiv Sena, which zeroed on Bendal, himself from the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, has solicited the aid of former BJP MLA Vinay Natu who was an eager aspirant for the Mahayuti ticket for the Guhagar seat. However, the nomination ultimately went to Bendal, with the approval of Natu, though. The Mahayuti this time is hell-bent on supplanting Jadhav. November 23 will tell whether their efforts succeed.

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