If Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts are the hotbeds in the Konkan in the upcoming Assembly polls, then the Kudal Assembly constituency (in Sindhudurg) is its crucible.
The Assembly segment has long a stage for fierce sabre-rattling between the Rane clan and the undivided Shiv Sena, and now the Sena (UBT) under Uddhav Thackeray.
The present contest is between BJP leader Narayana Rane’s elder son, Nilesh Rane – contesting on a Shiv Sena ticket - against the incumbent MLA Vaibhav Naik, from the rival Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT). The fracturing of the Shiv Sena into rival factions and the intense personal rivalry that has long defined the region’s politics has made the Kudal contest especially intense this time around.
This Assembly segment used to be Narayan Rane’s veritable fiefdom, and he held it five times prior to delimitation and once after the 2008 delimitation, winning the 2009 Assembly polls.
However, in a stunning setback to the Konkan strongman, Rane, then in the Congress, was comprehensively routed the (undivided) Shiv Sena’s Vaibhav Naik by a massive margin of more than 10,200 votes in the 2014 Assembly polls.
This had resulted in a comeback for Shiv Sena in the Konkan. Despite Mr. Rane’s long shadow over the coastal Malwan belt, a surge of popular anger against his strong-arm tactics coupled with sanction to controversial ecological projects in the verdant Sindhudurg led to his undoing.
Naik repeated his performance in the 2019 Assembly polls as well, where all of Rane’s efforts to supplant him came a cropper.
But this time, the terrain is different. The once-solid base of the Shiv Sena has split, with the Shinde faction drawing support away from Naik, diluting his previous stronghold. Naik’s past successes, including significant margins over prominent rivals like Narayan Rane and independent candidate Ranjit Desai, seem to have diminished under the current political turbulence.
The present clime has provided an ideal opportunity to Nilesh Rane, a former MP, who is now seeking political validation by hoping to score a big victory from Kudal.
In a curious turn, just last year, Nilesh announced his withdrawal from active politics. His abrupt ‘exit’ from the political scene was accompanied by a public statement expressing his disinterest in continuing in electoral politics. Yet, he soon reversed his decision.
Nilesh, seeking to avenge his father’s Assembly election defeat and rehabilitate himself, has had to switch parties – from the BJP to ally Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena – as a condition to contest in the arena.
The Rane family’s entrenched political presence in the Konkan region, especially through Narayan Rane’s decades-long career, is no small advantage for Nilesh. He himself is a seasoned campaigner in the Malwan belt. With a background steeped in both grassroots efforts and high-level political manoeuvring, his candidacy offers more than just the name recognition of his family. His credentials are bolstered further by his father’s recent success in the Lok Sabha elections, where Narayan Rane garnered a notable 26,236 votes from Kudal, signalling the Rane brand’s sway over the region.
That said, Nilesh will have to tread carefully against the experienced Vaibhav Naik, no mean opponent himself.
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