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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Lessons from Maharashtra’s Political Realignment

Eknath Shinde

Maharashtra’s political drama has long been a microcosm of India’s broader ideological tussles. From the formation of the Shiv Sena in 1966, built on the fiery rhetoric of Marathi pride, to its metamorphosis into a Hindutva powerhouse, the party’s trajectory mirrors the changing contours of Indian politics. Yet, as the latest election results suggest, the once-formidable bastion of the Thackerays is being redefined, not by its founders, but by its renegades.


The rise of Eknath Shinde, who broke away from Uddhav Thackeray’s faction in a dramatic coup in June 2022, has marked a turning point for the Sena. Shinde’s pragmatic approach, bolstered by his alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has allowed him to reposition the Shiv Sena within Maharashtra’s power structure. By leveraging Hindutva politics while simultaneously focusing on grassroots welfare schemes, Shinde has successfully appealed to urban and rural voters alike.


Conversely, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction appears to have stumbled under the weight of its ideological contradictions. His decision to join hands with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) banner in 2019 was a bold move, but one that alienated many of the Sena’s traditional Hindutva-leaning voters. The subsequent defections and internal discord within the MVA have further exposed the fragility of this alliance.


The election results are telling. While Shinde’s Shiv Sena, riding on the coattails of the BJP-led Mahayuti (Grand Alliance), has made significant inroads, Uddhav’s faction has struggled to maintain relevance. Shinde’s ability to communicate effectively with voters, coupled with schemes like the Mukhya Mantri Mahila Samman Yojana, which provided financial aid to women voters, showcased a canny blend of welfare and religious politics.


The pre-poll infusion of cash through targeted government schemes appears to have rendered the MVA’s campaign slogans hollow. For voters, the question of who represents the ‘real’ Shiv Sena seems to have been decisively answered in this election. Eknath Shinde’s success can be attributed to his meticulous communication with colleagues, his constant availability and the logistical support he extended for grassroots planning. By embracing the Mahayuti, voters have cast aside the opposition’s MVA’s narratives of corruption, often negative, against the ruling coalition. For instance, the Sena (UBT)’s relentless litany of accusations and jeering against the Shinde Sena faction following the split, dubbing them ‘gaddar’ (traitors), ‘Mindhe Sena’ and ‘Khoke politics’ — came a cropper as the electorate showed it couldn’t care less about rhetoric.


The electoral outcome also underlines the BJP’s continued mastery in narrative-setting. Urban voters, traditionally sceptical of coalition governments, found Shinde's pragmatism and BJP’s discipline more appealing than the ideological compromises of the MVA.


The MVA’s failure, on the other hand, lies in its inability to craft a cohesive narrative. Its attempts to position itself as the defender of constitutional values and secularism fell flat in the face of the BJP-Mahayuti’s relentless campaign that appealed to Maharashtra’s deep-rooted religious sentiments. Additionally, the MVA’s internal bickering and lack of grassroots engagement highlighted a disconnect with voters.


Maharashtra’s political realignment underscores a critical lesson: ideological rigidity without adaptability is a liability. While Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena once thrived on fiery speeches and symbolic protests, today’s electorate demands tangible results. Shinde’s rise signals a shift from identity politics to result-oriented governance, albeit underpinned by the rhetoric of Hindutva.


For Uddhav Thackeray, the path forward is fraught with challenges. Rebuilding the Shiv Sena’s base requires not just rekindling the Marathi identity but also finding a way to bridge the divide between his secular allies and his Hindutva roots. Meanwhile, Shinde’s ascendancy serves as a stark reminder that in Maharashtra’s fiercely competitive politics, survival depends not on legacy but on reinvention.


The stakes for both Sena factions—and indeed for Maharashtra—remain high. In a state where politics often sets the template for national trends, the Shiv Sena’s internal schism offers a fascinating case study of the intersection between ideology, leadership, and electoral pragmatism. Whether Uddhav can reclaim his legacy or whether Shinde will permanently reshape the Sena’s identity will define the contours of Maharashtra’s politics for years to come.


(The author is a practicing advocate at the Bombay High Court. Views personal.)

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