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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Maharashtra Elections: The Satta Bazaar Dilemma!

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Maharashtra Elections

For the first time, Satta Bazaar or the Bookies Market are confused and at a loss, unable to predict which party or candidate will win the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra. Mohan (name changed) one of the regulars in the circuit, shares some titbits circulating through the grapevine about how, for the very first time in many years, the entire Satta Bazaar is struggling to come up with reliable numbers on who will win or lose these upcoming elections. The reasons he says are not one but multiple. The first is the lack of trust and clarity on the seat-sharing formula amongst both the ruling Maha Yuti and the opposition Maha Vikash Aghadi coalition. The second reason is the possible coming together of multiple fronts that may include Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), Raju Shetty’s Swabhimaani Paksha, Sambhaji Raje Bhonsale’s Swarajya Sanghatana, and Bachhu Kadu’s Prahar Janshakti Party, as well as the Maharashtra Navanirman Sena (MNS) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and not to mention the many candidates who may contest as Independents in case they fail to get a ticket. Adding to this complex mix is the possible entry of the Maratha activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who may decide to take a political plunge and contest the elections, potentially changing the entire equation.

“This is nothing less than a political circus of sorts,“ says Mohan, noting that he and his associates have analysed that while the smaller parties may come together to form a possible third and fourth front, it cannot be ruled out that most parties may prefer to go solo at the last minute, contesting all 288 seats. The victory numbers according to the ‘market’ is the MNS, which is expected to contest 250 seats and might win at least 5-6 seats of them. And the combination of VBA along with others may fetch them at least 55 seats. Similarly, AIMIM, which may contest 50 seats, stands to win at least in five prominent Muslim-dominated areas of Maharashtra, while the possible number of victorious Independents may exceed 20.

The third area that the bookies have reportedly been monitoring, he claims, is the shortage of strong candidates. Aside from ageing veterans, not a single political party has a strong and capable second or third line of leadership ready to contest these elections confidently. Instead, we see a large number of family members of established leaders―many who lack substantial political experience and understanding of grassroots politics as well. Additionally, you have contractors-cum-real-estate agents turned wannabe politicians who lack vision and are jumping on the election bandwagon, hoping to pay their way through to become the next big thing in Maharashtra.

“No one has any idea who to bet on or who will form the next government in Maharashtra. There are no good candidates this time around. Voters are tired. We think the voter turnout may be less this time, and if that happens, you can expect candidates whom you have never even heard of getting elected on a smaller number of votes, and that is quite worrying for everyone,” he says. Well, let’s wait and watch for sure!

(The writer is a journalist based in Mumbai. Views personal.)

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