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23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Mahayuti’s Masterstroke: Using Professional Strategists to Redefine Indian Politics

Updated: Dec 2, 2024

Mahayuti’s Masterstroke

The November 2024 Maharashtra state elections have etched themselves into history, not just for the decisive mandate they delivered but for the manner in which it was won. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance—comprising Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and Ajit Pawar’s splinter group of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)—secured a stunning 236 out of 288 seats in the assembly. The BJP alone bagged 132, Shiv Sena 57, and the NCP faction 41. This electoral triumph signifies more than just numbers; it reflects the emergence of a hybrid political model that marries the old-world zeal of party cadres with the precision of cutting-edge campaign strategies.


This victory is not merely a story of voter arithmetic but a testament to the transformative power of professional campaign management. It underscores a profound shift in Indian politics—one where technology, analytics, and behavioural insights are reshaping electoral dynamics while grassroots connections remain indispensable.


At the heart of the Mahayuti victory lies the BJP’s formidable cadre system and its disciplined network of grassroots workers mobilized to engage with voters and address grievances. This traditional strength of the BJP—cultivated over decades through its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)—proved invaluable.


Yet, it was the strategic brilliance of Atul Limaye, an RSS-trained strategist, that brought a modern edge to the BJP’s campaign. Limaye deployed data analytics, constituency profiling, and micro-targeting to tailor the party’s outreach. Armed with insights into voter behaviour, his team crafted constituency-specific messages that addressed issues as varied as crumbling urban infrastructure and farmers’ demands for irrigation schemes.


The BJP’s approach was marked by adaptability which was key to winning a state as diverse as Maharashtra. Urban voters were wooed with promises of metro expansions and industrial growth, while rural communities received assurances of crop insurance and welfare schemes. Limaye’s fusion of grassroots activism with data-driven targeting helped the BJP dominate both urban and rural constituencies.


Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction emerged as a critical player in the Mahayuti coalition by cementing its relevance in Maharashtra’s fractious political landscape. Shinde’s secret weapon was Robin Sharma, a strategist who understood the nuances of Maharashtra’s social and political fabric.


Sharma’s playbook was innovative: he used digital platforms like Instagram and Facebook to connect with younger voters while employing region-specific messages to resonate with local concerns. In urban Maharashtra, he emphasized industrial development, while in rural strongholds, agricultural welfare took centre stage. Notably, Sharma also prioritized women voters, highlighting gender-sensitive policies and welfare schemes that appealed to this traditionally underrepresented demographic.


Shinde’s faction thus positioned itself as a bridge between tradition and modernity, using grassroots networks to consolidate support while leveraging technology to broaden its appeal.


For Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, its performance represented a phoenix-like rise. Naresh Arora, the strategist behind this success, focused on reconnecting the NCP with its traditional voter base in rural Maharashtra—farmers, labourers and the economically disadvantaged.


Arora’s strategy was deeply personalized, relying on data analytics to pinpoint the specific concerns of individual constituencies. From crop insurance failures to irrigation woes, each constituency received a bespoke message that addressed its unique challenges. This approach not only rebuilt trust but also rekindled a sense of credibility among voters who had grown disenchanted with Ajit after he split the party founded by his uncle Sharad Pawar in July last year.


The Maharashtra verdict underscores the indispensable role of professional strategists in contemporary Indian politics. While grassroots cadres remain the bedrock of political campaigns, strategists like Limaye, Sharma, and Arora bring a level of sophistication that traditional methods cannot achieve alone.


These professionals rely on a mix of data analytics, targeted communication, and behavioural insights to fine-tune campaigns. They understand that voters are not a monolith; their preferences, priorities, and pain points vary widely. By addressing these nuances, strategists ensure that every vote is pursued with precision.


In Maharashtra, this hybrid model of cadre-driven outreach and professional management proved unbeatable. The BJP’s disciplined network provided the muscle, while strategists offered the brain, creating a synergy that outclassed the opposition.


The 2024 Maharashtra elections offer a blueprint for the future of Indian democracy. As political competition intensifies, the ability to blend grassroots dedication with analytical prowess will be the defining factor in electoral success.


For the BJP, the victory is a vindication of its dual approach. For its allies, it is proof that regional parties can thrive by adopting modern campaign techniques without losing their grassroots essence. Together, the Mahayuti alliance has set a new benchmark for electioneering in India.


This shift towards professionalized campaigns is likely to accelerate, particularly in states with diverse electorates like Maharashtra. As parties invest more in data and technology, the role of political strategists will grow, making elections increasingly sophisticated affairs.


However, this evolution raises important questions. Can technology truly substitute for the human connection that grassroots workers offer? The Maharashtra verdict suggests that the answer lies in balance—where tradition complements innovation rather than being supplanted by it.


(The author is a political observer based in Mumbai. Views personal.)

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