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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after...

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years has hardened into a public confrontation between a chief minister determined to finish five years and a deputy increasingly unwilling to wait. The recent breakfast meeting between the two men at Siddaramaiah’s residence was presented as a truce where the ‘high command’ was invoked as the final arbiter. “There are no differences between us,” Siddaramaiah insisted, twice for emphasis. Few were convinced and soon, Shivakumar was again hinting darkly at change. For weeks, Shivakumar’s loyalists have been holding meetings, mobilising legislators and making pilgrimages to Delhi to get the Congress high command to honour its promise. They insist that the Congress leadership agreed to a rotational chief ministership in 2023 and that November 2025 was always meant to mark Shivakumar’s ascent. The high command, for its part, has perfected the art of strategic vagueness by neither confirming nor denying the pact. This suggests that the Congress does not merely hesitate to act against Siddaramaiah, but increasingly lacks the capacity to do so. From the outset of his second innings, Siddaramaiah has given no signal of easing aside. As he approaches January 2026, poised to overtake D. Devaraj Urs as Karnataka’s longest-serving chief minister, the symbolism is unmistakable. The mantle of social justice politics that Urs once embodied now firmly sits on Siddaramaiah’s shoulders. And it is this social coalition that shields him. His fortress is AHINDA - minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Leaked figures from the unreleased caste census suggest that these groups together approach or exceed two-thirds of the state’s population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas, once electorally dominant, are rendered numerical minorities in this arithmetic. Siddaramaiah governs not merely as a Congress leader, but as the putative custodian of Karnataka’s demographic majority. That claim is reinforced through policy. Minority scholarships have been revived, contractor quotas restored, residential schools expanded. More than Rs. 42,000 crore has been earmarked for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Kurubas, his own community, have been pitched for Scheduled Tribe status, with careful assurances that their elevation will not disadvantage others. DK Shivakumar brings organisational muscle, financial clout and control over the Vokkaliga heartland. In electoral campaigns, these are formidable assets. But in a confrontation with a leader who embodies a 60–70 percent social coalition, they are blunt instruments. The Congress high command understands this equation, even if it publicly pretends otherwise. It also remembers, uneasily, what Siddaramaiah did the last time his authority was constrained. In 2020, when the Congress–JD(S) coalition collapsed after 16 MLAs defected to Mumbai,13 of them hailed from Siddaramaiah’s camp. At the time, he held the post of coordination committee chairman. Instead, he emerged as the principal beneficiary of collapse, returning as Leader of the Opposition with a tighter grip on the party. If the Congress high command could not punish him then, it is doubtful it can coerce him now. Shivakumar’s predicament is thus more tragic than tactical. He is not battling a rival alone, but an entire political structure built to outlast him. The promised coronation looks increasingly like a mirage drifting just ahead of a man condemned to keep walking. For the Congress, the cost of this paralysis is already visible. A government elected on guarantees and governance is consumed by succession. The party’s authority is dissolving while its factions harden. The Congress returned to power in Karnataka after years in the wilderness, only to re-enact the same leadership dysfunction that has crippled it elsewhere. Regardless of whether Siddaramaiah survives this storm, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Congress cannot survive the slow corrosion of its command in one of the few states it holds today.

Mahayuti’s ‘Problem Child’ in Marathwada

Updated: Nov 12, 2024

Marathwada

There is perhaps no more volatile Assembly segment in Marathwada ahead of the November 20 polls than in Sillod, where the schisms within the ruling Mahayuti coalition are at its peak.


The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has drawn a significant line with the local unit declaring that it will not campaign for its ally Abdul Sattar, a senior minister of Eknath Shinde’s ruling Shiv Sena candidate, who is seeking re-election from Sillod (in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar district) for a fourth time.


Sattar, currently the state’s Minister for Minorities Development, has long been a polarising figure. Kamlesh Kataria, the city BJP president, accused Sattar of actively working to finish the BJP’s presence in Sillod and was allegedly threatening its workers. Kataria has accused Sattar of working against the BJP’s interests despite the two parties being allies by citing Sattar’s support for Congress candidate Kalyan Kale in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which led to BJP stalwart Raosaheb Danve’s defeated in nearby Jalna constituency.


Originally elected as a Congress candidate in 2009 and 2014, Sattar had joined the undivided Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray ahead of the 2019 assembly elections, where he again emerged victorious. Post the Sena split, he aligned himself with the ruling Shinde faction.


The discontent with Sattar goes beyond electoral calculations. His personal brand of politics has become a liability, both within his party and beyond. His comments and actions have drawn ire from various quarters. More recently, his involvement in a teacher eligibility test (TET) scam, in which his daughters were named, has further tarnished his reputation. The scam, which involved the inflating of exam marks and the distribution of fake certificates, has added another layer of controversy to his already volatile political persona. Earlier, his provocative language against prominent leaders, including NCP’s Supriya Sule, triggered widespread protests.


The growing resentment among BJP workers in the region has paved the way for his arch rival, Suresh Bankar, to seize the day in a bid to settle scores with the Sena leader.


Bankar, a former BJP state secretary with deep ties to the disgruntled wing of the party, has now joined the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and will be facing Sattar on November 20.


Bankar, who has clashed with Sattar before, has accused him of manipulating voter rolls in Sillod, alleging that the names of supporters from outside the constituency were fraudulently registered to boost Sattar’s chances in previous elections.


For Sattar, this is merely the latest chapter in a series of controversies that have dogged his career. His combative approach to politics - often marked by inflammatory rhetoric and allegations of misconduct -has put him at odds with allies and rivals alike. While he remains a key player in the Shinde faction in this region, the BJP’s public repudiation of his candidacy signals a formidable challenge for him in the coming contest.


The BJP’s decision not to support Sattar will have far-reaching implications for the minister, given that Bankar and the local BJP unit will actively conspire to pull him down. Can the abrasive Sattar maintain his political footing on Sillod’s slippery wicket?

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