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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Mahayuti shall return to power with not much changes in the power equation: Shinde

Updated: Nov 15, 2024

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde appears very confident and is absolutely sure of returning to power after the assembly elections next week. Excerpts of the conversation with him ahead of the crucial polls that the whole nation is watching.


Eknath Shinde

Q. How do you assess the 2024 Assembly elections? What is different from the other Vidhan Sabha elections?

A. Assembly elections are like exams for us. We go to people with our report cards and they assess us based on our performance. All the parties including the big political organizations and even those in power have to follow this procedure. This time, the volume is big. Apart from Shiv Sena there are at least six other political parties and some alliances are contesting the elections. There are several independent candidates also who want to try their luck. That makes a huge lot and that has added spice to the elections. Everybody is waiting to watch the outcome. Elections are not new to me. I have been doing both, to contest and win myself as well as help other win. I have been doing this for a long time. But, yes this is the first time that I am contesting and facing the elections with an added responsibility of the Shiv Sena party chief. In that sense this election is a bit different for me that those I have faced in the past.


Q. The elections are being fought by Mahayuti under your leadership. What are the issues that you are taking before the people?

A. We have been pursuing the development agenda. We want to see a sustainable, quality and all-round development that would bring happiness into the lives of the people. Especially, the yet under-developed areas of the state, small hamlets and even the cities need financial strengthening. Employment and self-employment needs a boost. World class infrastructure and good educational institutions are required. Schemes that would make the farmers self-sufficient and the agriculture independent need to be promoted. Women’s empowerment is yet to be complete. There are several things that we want to accomplish. We are going to people with what we have done and we are sharing our vision with them as to what we want to accomplish.


Q. There was lot of criticism of the Ladki Bahin scheme by the MVA. They said that it would be a strain on exchequer and it will be shut after the elections. Now they have made a similar promise.

A. That is their double-speak. They are confused themselves. They know very well that the scheme is sustainable. But, don’t want to accept it. Yet, when they see the people enthusiastic about the scheme, they are not able to resist themselves from announcing something similar. Basically the scheme is for the benefit of all the downtrodden sections of the deprived classes. There was no need to politicise the issue. But, the opposition lost their cool when they saw the people’s support to the scheme. Initially they tried to create confusion saying that there would be a strain on exchequer. But, when 2.40 crore sisters got the five instalments deposited to their bank accounts, they realized the potential of the scheme and they made a U-turn. This in itself underlines the great success of the scheme. They themselves have made it clear that they opposed the scheme initially out of political insecurity.

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