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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Mayhem In Mumbai

Mayhem

In Maharashtra’s tangled electoral theater, Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has again found itself caught in an uneasy tug-of-war with its nominal allies in the ruling Mahayuti coalition. In a high-profile debut, Raj’s son, Amit Thackeray, who is set to contest the Mahim Assembly seat, now finds himself facing a daunting challenge in a constituency marked by political crosscurrents and veiled grudges. The ruling MLA Sada Sarvankar of CM Eknath Shinde’s ruling Shiv Sena, has refused to back off despite previous intimations by the BJP that it would convince Sarvankar to withdraw.


Earlier, following Sarvankar’s intransigence, Raj Thackeray openly castigated Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar. His ire, stemmed from Shinde’s refusal to rein in Sarvankar, who flatly refused to step aside in favour of Amit.


Yet, despite venting his spleen on Shinde, Raj spared the BJP from any direct rebuke, hinting that his bonhomie with the saffron party remained intact.


However, the BJP appears to be doing a delicate balancing act over backing Amit Thackeray in Mahim.


While endorsing MNS candidates for only one seat—the Shivdi Assembly seat, where Raj Thackeray’s lieutenant Bala Nandgaonkar is contesting—it has maintained an ambiguous stance on supporting Amit in Mahim.


BJP’s Mumbai President Ashish Shelar clarified that their endorsement is limited strictly to Shivdi, effectively withdrawing the once-discussed support for Amit. Despite Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis’s efforts to broker a truce, BJP’s MLC Pravin Darekar highlighted that any backing for Amit in Mahim hinges on the Eknath Shiv Sena’s co-operation - a condition that underscores the BJP’s unwillingness to risk its alliances over Mahim.


This latest development has left Raj Thackeray navigating an uncertain political landscape with less than a fortnight to go for the polls. While the MNS leader campaigned fervently for Eknath Shinde’s son, Shrikant Shinde, in the recent Lok Sabha elections, Shinde’s refusal to reciprocate the same for Raj’s son in connection with the Mahim Assembly seat is likely to have stoked Raj’s frustrations.


For Amit, the upcoming contest marks a critical political debut as he faces not only Sarvankar but also the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Mahesh Sawant, creating a high-stakes triangular contest in central Mumbai. The MNS’ twin debacles in the 2014 parliamentary and Assembly elections left the party in utter disarray, with the slide continuing through the 2017 civic election as well as the 2019 State and national elections.


Following its rout in the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election, an atrophied MNS had changed its ideological direction from its nativist stance by veering towards Hindutva politics, signalled by Mr. Raj Thackeray’s 2020 adoption of a saffron flag incorporating Chhatrapati Shivaji’s royal seal or ‘Rajmudra’.


The BJP’s reluctance to commit unequivocally to the MNS points to a larger strategy. By keeping its support conditional and focused on Nandgaonkar in Shivdi, the BJP retains leverage without alienating the Shinde faction—a tactical move to safeguard its alliance in Maharashtra’s fragmented political climate. For the BJP, Raj Thackeray’s Marathi vote bank remains valuable, but not indispensable.


The BJP thus benefits from Raj’s ideological alignment (the latter had offered unconditional support to the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha), given his pivot towards Hindutva in the recent past. For the MNS and its leader, though, the Mahayuti’s ambivalence towards Raj Thackeray leaves the latter in a state of permanent political limbo.

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