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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Mirror, Mirror on the Easel

An eye for an I makes the whole world see.


Frida Kahlo, Self-Portrait with Thorn Necklace and Hummingbird, 1940.
Frida Kahlo, Self-Portrait with Thorn Necklace and Hummingbird, 1940.

“There is no self-portrait of me,” Gustav Klimt said, though he could have solved this problem easily by picking up a brush. “I have never painted a self-portrait. I am less interested in myself as a subject for a painting than I am in other people... Whoever wants to know something about me... ought to look carefully at my pictures.” Genuine disinterest in self-reflection (no pun intended)? Or was he manifesting Samuel Johnson words: “Each person’s work is always a portrait of himself.”


Every art student has grappled with the self-portrait assignment – the intimidating and quintessential ‘Who Am I?’ Whether it is a freshman in Studio Art 101 or an established artist, the undertaking never gets easier. Looking in the mirror is not for the faint of heart, no matter your age or profession.


Gurusiddappa GE, Self portrait, 2024
Gurusiddappa GE, Self portrait, 2024

In a previous article we discussed portraiture, but the artist’s self-portrait is a genre entirely unto itself. After all, “Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom.” (Lao Tzu) Artists painting themselves is almost metaphysical by construction. Manjit Bawa painted himself like one of his typically serene, isolated sages against a flat, deep maroon background. Souza’s self-portrait is a distorted head, Husain is barefoot in a white kurta pyjama, Raja Ravi Varma is regal in an academic classical style. The artist’s identity is inextricably tied to their art. Francis Bacon said, “I loathe my own face, and I’ve done self-portraits because I’ve had nobody else to do.”


The self-portrait is undoubtedly the most convenient subject for a painting, always present when you are, but it requires confronting your own demons and making decisions about what to show, how to show, how much to edit, how much to ignore. It requires an “ability to observe without evaluating,” to quote philosopher J. Krishnamurti. Artists’ self-portraits span the spectrum from realism to performative theatre. Leonardo da Vinci and Rabindranath Tagore with their flowing beards and locks, depict themselves with equally inscrutable countenances. Dali, with his trademark moustache and brilliant eyes makes a knowing caricature of himself. They are evidence to Henry Ward Beecher’s statement that “Every artist dips his brush in his own soul, and paints his own nature into his pictures.”


Rembrandt van Rijn’s fascination with himself is unmatched among artists. Creating more than a 100 paintings, etchings, drawings and sketches of himself, it is in all likelihood, a record for self-portraiture. Almost always set against a dark or stark background with no objects for distraction other than the occasional hat, the paintings focus entirely on the artist’s visage – documenting his life and the process of ageing. Though nowhere as numerous as Rembrandt, Picasso’s self-portraits, lined up chronologically from age 15 through 90 are a record not just of his development as an artist, but can double as a lesson in modern art history itself.


It is Van Gogh’s self-portraits which are possibly the most well-known, always him staring directly at the viewer with that dizzy, swirling background, presenting his vision without guile. The unique power of his brushwork causes the viewer to pause, forgetting if only for a moment, that they came to see the portrait of the man who cut off his ear. For absolute directness, however, it would be difficult to find self-portraits more compelling than those painted by Frida Kahlo. “I paint self-portraits because I am the person I know best,” she said, presenting herself unforgivingly, not just physically but emotionally – the canvas truly was her mirror on an easel. In this era of selfies and filters, these works are, if nothing else, a lesson in honesty.


Amrita Sher-Gil painted herself delightfully in various incarnations, including as a Gauguin inspired Tahitian. Perhaps misguided, but she was young, one might say unfiltered, and trying on different personas to see what fit. In more recent times, Cindy Sherman is her own artist, subject, muse and viewer but says, “Everyone thinks these are self-portraits but they aren’t meant to be. I just use myself as a model. I feel I’m anonymous in my work. When I look at the pictures, I never see myself.” The viewer, however, is always looking for the morphed Sherman in her work. Even when disguised and dressed up to be someone else, both artists are still conveying a truth about themselves to the world.


The self-portrait exercise soon teaches the art student that identity and representation isn’t confined to facial recognition. Every religion, philosopher, and neurologist has explained that the self is so much more than one’s physical entity. Doesn’t a person’s book collection often reveal a lot more than the smile on their face? Contemporary artist Gurusiddappa GE is front and centre in his self-portrait which doesn’t show his face at all. Fingers to ears with his back to the viewer, there he is, surrounded by the names of masters and peers, who crowd his own creative practice. Carrying the weight of the artistic endeavour, searching for his own identity, that faceless person is, without doubt, a portrait of the artist himself and of every artist past, present and future.


(Meera is an architect, author, editor and artist.)

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