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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Mumbai’s Known Unknowns

Amit Thackeray

The late U.S. Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, during a 2002 press briefing, famously distinguished between “known knowns,” “known unknowns,” and “unknown unknowns” - a framework that sought to categorize the complexities of intelligence and decision-making. His remarks, emphasizing the importance of understanding the limits of one’s knowledge, were made context of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. As Mumbai gears up for a fiercely contested electoral battle, the phrase rings eerily true where established political dynasties and their legacies clash with the unpredictability of voter sentiment, emerging challenges, and the shifting alliances that characterize the electoral arena.


This election cycle, filled with familiar names and entrenched rivalries, poses challenges that few can foresee, even as the players remain well known.


Amit Thackeray, the son of Raj Thackeray and a new face in Maharashtra’s political landscape, has thrown his hat into the ring by contesting from the Mahim constituency. While one might assume that a legacy associated with the Thackeray name would afford him an easy path, he faces significant hurdles. Sada Sarvankar, the incumbent MLA from the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, is steadfast in his candidacy, refusing to step aside despite being part of the Mahayuti alliance. Sarvankar’s past victories, including a decisive win in 2019, suggest that the Thackeray scion is in for a tough fight.

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Meanwhile, the dynamics are further complicated by the presence of Mahesh Sawant, the candidate from Uddhav Thackeray’s faction of Shiv Sena (UBT). With a history of strong electoral performance in Mahim, Sawant could siphon votes away from Amit Thackeray, presenting a formidable barrier in a contest already rife with uncertainty.


The looming presence of minority communities in Mahim, coupled with the shifting alliances among the traditional powerhouses, creates an unpredictable voter landscape. Will Amit Thackeray succeed in rallying support from Raj Thackeray’s legacy, or will Sarvankar’s established credibility prove insurmountable?


In Worli, a neighbouring constituency steeped in Shiv Sena tradition, Rajya Sabha MP Milind Deora from Eknath Shinde’s Sena is stepping into a duel against incumbent MLA Aaditya Thackeray, whose own political journey is now fraught with precariousness. The younger Thackeray’s 2019 victory by a margin of over 68,000 votes feels like a distant memory, as recent Lok Sabha electoral results (where his lead from Worli had significantly reduced) signal a waning grip on the constituency. This once unassailable bastion is now vulnerable, with Deora poised to capitalize on any faltering support from Aaditya’s base.


In the Vandre East assembly constituency, Zeeshan Siddique, who finally quit the Congress to join Ajit Pawar’s ruling NCP, has carved out a robust base of support among young voters and the local Muslim community. His reputation is bolstered by a direct engagement with constituents, addressing local issues head-on and leveraging social media to foster connections. Additionally, the recent daylight killing of his father, Baba Siddique, a former Maharashtra minister, may elicit sympathy votes that could prove crucial in this election.


Conversely, Varun Sardesai, Uddhav Thackeray’s nephew, has positioned himself as a steadfast loyalist during the political turbulence of 2022. His influence in Vandre East is notable, largely stemming from the enduring loyalty of the Shiv Sena’s traditional voter base, which remains a significant force in this constituency.

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