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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

Muslim Mistrust

Updated: Nov 15, 2024

Muslim Mistrust

With barely a week left for the November 20 Assembly elections, a growing sense of disillusionment is sweeping through Mumbai’s Muslim community. Constituting roughly 20 percent of the city’s population, Muslims hold sway over key constituencies in areas like Byculla, Mahim, Malad and Dharavi. Yet, despite their electoral clout, Muslim voters find themselves facing a stark underrepresentation on the candidate lists of both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). This frustration, compounded by unmet expectations from the MVA, whose support Muslims had decisively swung in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, is likely to shape the outcome of the upcoming vote.


There are around ten Assembly seats in the city with a Muslim majority or sizeable Muslim population (over 25 percent). However, the representation of Muslims on the candidate lists of the state’s major political parties has remained woefully low, sparking a growing sense of alienation among the community. The Congress has fielded just four Muslim candidates while the ruling NCP led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar faction has nominated a handful. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded just one Muslim candidate - Harun Khan in Versova – despite the fact that the minority community had enthusiastically gravitated towards Thackeray in the Lok Sabha polls in May-June this year.


Despite the MVA’s claims of inclusivity, the lack of fresh Muslim faces has left many voters feeling let down. In Mumbai, many had hoped for more than just token representation from parties they had rallied behind during the 2024 Lok Sabha election, where the MVA, bolstered by significant Muslim support, won four of the six seats in the city. However, as the Assembly polls draw near, the community is increasingly questioning whether they have been taken for granted.


Smaller parties like the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) have provided more space for Muslim candidates, with the VBA nominating nine Muslims and AIMIM putting forward four, yet these parties lack the infrastructure and political reach to make a significant dent in the larger political picture.


The mood in the Muslim community ahead of the Assembly poll is generally to cast in their lot with a minority candidate of whichever party. In this light, it will be interesting to see if the VBA and the AIMIM, once allies but now contesting independently, can woo Muslim voters to their fold from the legacy parties.


The absence of Muslim candidates in key constituencies is glaring. Byculla, for example, is a Muslim-majority area where the MVA could have fielded a strong Muslim candidate, but instead, it chose to field Manoj Jamsutkar, a former Shiv Sena corporator from Nagpada. Byculla, which had a significant role in helping MVA candidate Arvind Sawant win the South Mumbai Lok Sabha seat in May, is now set to see a showdown between the Shiv Sena’s Yamini Jadhav and Jamsutkar.


Observers claim the discontent runs deeper in constituencies where the Muslim vote had played a pivotal role in the past. Areas like Dharavi, Byculla, and Sion Koliwada had seen significant Muslim mobilization during the Lok Sabha elections, helping the MVA in securing crucial seats.


The MVA’s failure to deliver on its promises of inclusivity may very well lead to a splintering of the Muslim vote as many in the community now struggle to find a political party or leader that truly represents their interests.

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