Muslim Mistrust

With barely a week left for the November 20 Assembly elections, a growing sense of disillusionment is sweeping through Mumbai’s Muslim community. Constituting roughly 20 percent of the city’s population, Muslims hold sway over key constituencies in areas like Byculla, Mahim, Malad and Dharavi. Yet, despite their electoral clout, Muslim voters find themselves facing a stark underrepresentation on the candidate lists of both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). This frustration, compounded by unmet expectations from the MVA, whose support Muslims had decisively swung in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, is likely to shape the outcome of the upcoming vote.

There are around ten Assembly seats in the city with a Muslim majority or sizeable Muslim population (over 25 percent). However, the representation of Muslims on the candidate lists of the state’s major political parties has remained woefully low, sparking a growing sense of alienation among the community. The Congress has fielded just four Muslim candidates while the ruling NCP led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar faction has nominated a handful. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded just one Muslim candidate - Harun Khan in Versova – despite the fact that the minority community had enthusiastically gravitated towards Thackeray in the Lok Sabha polls in May-June this year.

Despite the MVA’s claims of inclusivity, the lack of fresh Muslim faces has left many voters feeling let down. In Mumbai, many had hoped for more than just token representation from parties they had rallied behind during the 2024 Lok Sabha election, where the MVA, bolstered by significant Muslim support, won four of the six seats in the city. However, as the Assembly polls draw near, the community is increasingly questioning whether they have been taken for granted.

Smaller parties like the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) have provided more space for Muslim candidates, with the VBA nominating nine Muslims and AIMIM putting forward four, yet these parties lack the infrastructure and political reach to make a significant dent in the larger political picture.

The mood in the Muslim community ahead of the Assembly poll is generally to cast in their lot with a minority candidate of whichever party. In this light, it will be interesting to see if the VBA and the AIMIM, once allies but now contesting independently, can woo Muslim voters to their fold from the legacy parties.

The absence of Muslim candidates in key constituencies is glaring. Byculla, for example, is a Muslim-majority area where the MVA could have fielded a strong Muslim candidate, but instead, it chose to field Manoj Jamsutkar, a former Shiv Sena corporator from Nagpada. Byculla, which had a significant role in helping MVA candidate Arvind Sawant win the South Mumbai Lok Sabha seat in May, is now set to see a showdown between the Shiv Sena’s Yamini Jadhav and Jamsutkar.

Observers claim the discontent runs deeper in constituencies where the Muslim vote had played a pivotal role in the past. Areas like Dharavi, Byculla, and Sion Koliwada had seen significant Muslim mobilization during the Lok Sabha elections, helping the MVA in securing crucial seats.

The MVA’s failure to deliver on its promises of inclusivity may very well lead to a splintering of the Muslim vote as many in the community now struggle to find a political party or leader that truly represents their interests.