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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Muslim Mistrust

Updated: Nov 15, 2024

Muslim Mistrust

With barely a week left for the November 20 Assembly elections, a growing sense of disillusionment is sweeping through Mumbai’s Muslim community. Constituting roughly 20 percent of the city’s population, Muslims hold sway over key constituencies in areas like Byculla, Mahim, Malad and Dharavi. Yet, despite their electoral clout, Muslim voters find themselves facing a stark underrepresentation on the candidate lists of both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). This frustration, compounded by unmet expectations from the MVA, whose support Muslims had decisively swung in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, is likely to shape the outcome of the upcoming vote.


There are around ten Assembly seats in the city with a Muslim majority or sizeable Muslim population (over 25 percent). However, the representation of Muslims on the candidate lists of the state’s major political parties has remained woefully low, sparking a growing sense of alienation among the community. The Congress has fielded just four Muslim candidates while the ruling NCP led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar faction has nominated a handful. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded just one Muslim candidate - Harun Khan in Versova – despite the fact that the minority community had enthusiastically gravitated towards Thackeray in the Lok Sabha polls in May-June this year.


Despite the MVA’s claims of inclusivity, the lack of fresh Muslim faces has left many voters feeling let down. In Mumbai, many had hoped for more than just token representation from parties they had rallied behind during the 2024 Lok Sabha election, where the MVA, bolstered by significant Muslim support, won four of the six seats in the city. However, as the Assembly polls draw near, the community is increasingly questioning whether they have been taken for granted.


Smaller parties like the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) have provided more space for Muslim candidates, with the VBA nominating nine Muslims and AIMIM putting forward four, yet these parties lack the infrastructure and political reach to make a significant dent in the larger political picture.


The mood in the Muslim community ahead of the Assembly poll is generally to cast in their lot with a minority candidate of whichever party. In this light, it will be interesting to see if the VBA and the AIMIM, once allies but now contesting independently, can woo Muslim voters to their fold from the legacy parties.


The absence of Muslim candidates in key constituencies is glaring. Byculla, for example, is a Muslim-majority area where the MVA could have fielded a strong Muslim candidate, but instead, it chose to field Manoj Jamsutkar, a former Shiv Sena corporator from Nagpada. Byculla, which had a significant role in helping MVA candidate Arvind Sawant win the South Mumbai Lok Sabha seat in May, is now set to see a showdown between the Shiv Sena’s Yamini Jadhav and Jamsutkar.


Observers claim the discontent runs deeper in constituencies where the Muslim vote had played a pivotal role in the past. Areas like Dharavi, Byculla, and Sion Koliwada had seen significant Muslim mobilization during the Lok Sabha elections, helping the MVA in securing crucial seats.


The MVA’s failure to deliver on its promises of inclusivity may very well lead to a splintering of the Muslim vote as many in the community now struggle to find a political party or leader that truly represents their interests.

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