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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Nepal’s Constitutional Amendments: A Debate on Reform and Stability

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Nepal’s Constitutional

Nepal’s current political debate centres on the ruling coalition’s call for constitutional amendments. Led by the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the government argues that revisions to the constitution are necessary to address political and governance challenges. The amendments they propose include changes to the electoral system, tweaking the federal structure, and revisiting the nation’s secular status. They claim these reforms will lead to more inclusivity and stability in the long run.


On the other hand, the opposition, including several smaller parties, remains wary of such reforms. They argue that opening up the constitution to major changes could cause more harm than good, especially given Nepal’s complex political and ethnic landscape. There is a strong concern that amending the constitution without broad consensus could lead to political unrest and social division.


Key Amendment Issues

The debate over constitutional amendments revolves around three key issues:

Electoral System: There are calls to shift toward a more proportional representation system to ensure that smaller political parties and under-represented groups have a stronger voice in the political process. Currently, Nepal uses a mixed system, with some seats elected directly and others proportionally. The amendment would increase the number of proportionally elected representatives, giving smaller parties and marginalised groups more power. This change could bring more inclusivity, but critics also warn that it might further fragment an already divided political landscape.


Federalism: Nepal transitioned to a federal system in 2015, with the hope of decentralising power and promoting regional autonomy. However, challenges remain in balancing the power between the central government and the provinces. The proposed amendments aim to address these issues by altering the distribution of powers between the central and provincial governments to decentralise authority more effectively, empower regions, and address local governance issues. This would benefit provincial governments and historically under-represented regions, but it could also lead to conflicts over resource distribution and central control, especially in wealthier or politically dominant provinces. However, critics argue that such changes could destabilise the current system and weaken regional governance.


Secularism: Nepal has declared itself a secular state in its 2015 constitution, but this has been a topic of ongoing debate. Some groups, particularly those aligned with Hinduism, feel that secularism undermines the country’s religious heritage. While the current government has said that it’s not seeking to overturn secularism, there are discussions about refining the way secularism is addressed in the constitution to better reflect Nepal’s religious heritage, particularly its strong Hindu identity. While the state would remain secular, the changes might afford greater acknowledgement of Hindu traditions.


Challenges of Amending the Constitution

Amending a constitution is no small feat, especially in a country like Nepal, where political transitions have often been fragile. One of the main risks of making changes to the constitution is the possibility of increased political instability. The current constitution is only nine years old, and many fear that opening it up to amendments could lead to further fragmentation of the political landscape. Additionally, there are concerns about how these amendments could affect Nepal’s ethnic and regional balance. The federal structure, in particular, has been a sensitive issue since its implementation, and any changes to it could lead to discontent among certain provinces or ethnic groups.


Involvement of External Players: China’s Influence

Nepal’s geopolitical position between India and China means that any political or constitutional shift in the country attracts international attention. China, in particular, has been expanding its influence in Nepal over recent years, both economically and politically. Some analysts believe that the ruling parties’ push for constitutional reforms is also motivated by their desire to maintain a better relationship with China. As China continues to invest heavily in Nepal through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), there is concern that China’s involvement could subtly influence the direction of Nepal’s internal political decisions, including amendments to the constitution.


The debate over amending Nepal’s constitution highlights the delicate balance between reform and stability. While there are clear opportunities for addressing political challenges and improving governance, there is also the risk of destabilising the fragile peace that has been built over the past decade. Nepal’s leaders must tread carefully, ensuring that any changes are made with broad consensus and careful consideration of the nation’s complex political and ethnic fabric.


For India, watching these developments closely is essential, as Nepal’s stability and progress directly affect the region. Constitutional reform is a big change, and it must be handled with extreme caution to avoid unintended consequences.


(The author is an expert in foreign affairs. Views personal.)

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