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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit-Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit-Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Nepal’s Rising Monarchy Movement

Is Nepal rethinking its democratic journey? The push to restore the monarchy is stirring fresh debate over governance, identity, and trust in the republic.

More than a decade after abolishing its monarchy, Nepal is seeing a resurgence of support for its former Hindu king. Public rallies, royalist statements, and rising social media chatter suggest growing disillusionment with the current political system.


Nepal was a monarchy for over two centuries, ruled by the Shah dynasty since 1768. It played a key role in unifying the country and shaping its national identity. Closely tied to Hinduism, the king was seen as an incarnation of Lord Vishnu, giving the monarchy strong symbolic significance in Nepalese society.


The monarchy faced turmoil in the early 21st century. The 2001 royal massacre, which killed King Birendra and much of his family under mysterious circumstances, created a political vacuum. King Gyanendra, who took the throne, tried to consolidate power by imposing direct rule in 2005. This sparked mass protests, known as Jana Andolan II, led by political parties and Maoist insurgents. In 2008, the monarchy was abolished, and Nepal became a federal democratic republic.


Since then, Nepal has faced political instability, marked by frequent government changes and collapsing coalitions. Disillusionment with the republic has grown, prompting calls for a return to monarchy.


Factors Behind the Resurgence of Monarchist Sentiment

Several factors are driving growing support for restoring the monarchy. Since becoming a republic, Nepal has had over a dozen governments, many toppled by political infighting. Many feel the current system has failed to deliver stability, with some seeing a constitutional monarchy as a possible solution. Rising inflation, unemployment, and limited economic opportunities have also led people to question whether the republic has improved their lives.


Many recall the monarchy as a time of greater economic stability, despite its challenges. Corruption and inefficiency have eroded trust in political leaders, fuelling nostalgia for royal rule. Many feel elected officials prioritise party and personal interests over national welfare. Some also see rising foreign influence—especially from India, China, and the West—as a threat to sovereignty. By contrast, the monarchy is viewed by some as a unifying force that could protect Nepal’s independence.


Nepal was historically a Hindu kingdom, with the monarchy seen as a guardian of Hindu traditions. Many monarchy supporters believe its abolition weakened Nepal’s Hindu identity and left it more exposed to foreign influence.


Key Players and Groups Supporting the Movement

Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) is the main political party advocating for the restoration of the monarchy and has organised rallies and actively pushed for a referendum on the issue. Occasional public appearances and statements from ex-king Gyanendra and his family also fuel pro-monarchy sentiments. Some members of the former royal family have subtly indicated their willingness to return if the people demand it.


Various Hindu groups support the monarchy’s return as a guardian of Nepal’s traditional identity. Many religious figures have argued that a Hindu kingdom under a constitutional monarchy would better preserve Nepal’s culture and traditions.


Government and Political Response

The ruling parties have largely dismissed the monarchy movement, reaffirming Nepal’s republican status. However, acknowledging public dissatisfaction, they’ve introduced political reforms and economic initiatives. The government has also curbed protests, with security forces monitoring pro-monarchy gatherings.


Some leaders see the monarchy debate as a distraction from key issues like economic development and infrastructure. Others acknowledge the movement’s strength and warn that ignoring it could backfire. While a referendum has been discussed sporadically, no concrete plans exist.


Public opinion remains divided. Monarchists often recall a more stable Nepal and favour its return. Others hold mixed views—some see the monarchy as a solution to political instability, while others believe Nepal should focus on strengthening its democratic institutions.


Social media has amplified monarchist sentiment, with growing online discussions and campaigns. While mainstream media remains mostly neutral or critical, online platforms let supporters voice opinions and mobilise. Monarchist rallies have drawn sizeable crowds, suggesting many are at least open to the idea.


Potential Consequences and Future Scenarios

Several outcomes are possible. A constitutional amendment or referendum could reinstate the monarchy, but this would need strong political will and public backing. It’s unclear if mainstream parties would support such a shift. Alternatively, Nepal could remain a republic, with political reforms introduced to address grievances. Meaningful reforms could reduce the monarchy movement’s appeal.


However, if dissatisfaction grows, larger protests could put pressure on the government, potentially leading to instability. This could also create tensions between monarchists and republican supporters, leading to a polarised political environment.


The debate over monarchy versus republic is far from settled in Nepal. As the country grapples with political and economic challenges, the nostalgia for monarchy continues to gain traction. Whether this movement leads to a significant political shift or merely serves as a wake-up call for political leaders to address public grievances remains to be seen.


(The author is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

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