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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

New Frontlines of Tradition and Change

Updated: Nov 7, 2024

Frontlines

The Buldhana and Akola Assembly constituencies in Maharashtra’s Western Vidarbha, traditionally bastions of the ruling Shiv Sena and the BJP, could now see new battles in the upcoming Assembly election.


The November polls promise to test the resilience of Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) under Prakash Ambedkar in Akola, and the influence of caste and communal dynamics in these economically struggling districts. Though Akola has been a BJP bastion, Prime Minister is set to hold one of the first rallies (November 9) in this poll here, indicating the saffron party needs heavyweight support in the district.

Frontlines

Akola has been a BJP stronghold since 2004 with the party’s ideological base shaped by the early days of the Ram Mandir movement. The recent Lok Sabha poll showed the ruling party navigate the choppy waters by replacing their longtime leader in Akola, Sanjay Dhotre, with his son and thus avert a potential electoral setback.


In Buldhana, the undivided Shiv Sena has held sway since the 1990s by riding on the appeal of the late Sena founder Bal Thackeray’s firebrand oratory that captivated the Bahujan and OBC youth, wowing them away from the Congress. However, the district has also historically been a challenging place for women candidates within Shiv Sena ranks.


After the 2022 split in the Sena ranks, this year, Uddhav Thackeray’s opposition Sena (UBT) faction is breaking tradition by nominating Jayashree Shelke, a former Congress leader, as the MVA candidate for the Buldhana Assembly seat.


This marks the first time the Sena (divided or otherwise) has fielded a woman candidate in a major election here. Shelke’s candidacy signifies an attempt to both reach disenchanted Congress supporters and potentially set a historic milestone as the district’s first female MLA, should she succeed.

Yet her road to victory is far from smooth. She faces Sanjay Gaikwad of the rival Shiv Sena, a local figure whose record of controversial statements reflects the abrasive brand of Shiv Sena politics that has resonated with a segment of Buldhana’s electorate.


Meanwhile, the VBA, under Ambedkar’s leadership, continues to exert a disruptive influence across constituencies in Akola, where Ambedkar had been an MP in past decades. Though the VBA came a cropper in the 2024 Lok Sabha, with its vote share drastically plummeting, it still retains the capacity to queer the pitch.


In the 2019 Assembly elections, the VBA’s alliance with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) splintered votes across a number of seats, denying the Congress-NCP-Shiv Sena alliance (the MVA) several victories in key constituencies. In this year’s Lok Sabha election, the VBA failed to repeat its act. And yet, it cut into the opposition MVA’s votes in the Akola and Buldhana Lok Sabha seats, where the votes polled by the VBA’s candidates sealed the fates of the MVA contestants.


Ambedkar, recovering from recent health issues, has claimed that the OBCs – traditionally BJP’s core base in the state – will not vote saffron; his proclamations come amid his efforts to stitch a coalition of OBCs, SCs and STs. Yet, the strength of the VBA’s grassroots support will determine in this election whether the party will retain its status as a spoiler or whether the time has come to write Ambedkar’s political obituary.

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