New Frontlines of Tradition and Change

The Buldhana and Akola Assembly constituencies in Maharashtra’s Western Vidarbha, traditionally bastions of the ruling Shiv Sena and the BJP, could now see new battles in the upcoming Assembly election.

The November polls promise to test the resilience of Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) under Prakash Ambedkar in Akola, and the influence of caste and communal dynamics in these economically struggling districts. Though Akola has been a BJP bastion, Prime Minister is set to hold one of the first rallies (November 9) in this poll here, indicating the saffron party needs heavyweight support in the district.

Akola has been a BJP stronghold since 2004 with the party’s ideological base shaped by the early days of the Ram Mandir movement. The recent Lok Sabha poll showed the ruling party navigate the choppy waters by replacing their longtime leader in Akola, Sanjay Dhotre, with his son and thus avert a potential electoral setback.

In Buldhana, the undivided Shiv Sena has held sway since the 1990s by riding on the appeal of the late Sena founder Bal Thackeray’s firebrand oratory that captivated the Bahujan and OBC youth, wowing them away from the Congress. However, the district has also historically been a challenging place for women candidates within Shiv Sena ranks.

After the 2022 split in the Sena ranks, this year, Uddhav Thackeray’s opposition Sena (UBT) faction is breaking tradition by nominating Jayashree Shelke, a former Congress leader, as the MVA candidate for the Buldhana Assembly seat.

This marks the first time the Sena (divided or otherwise) has fielded a woman candidate in a major election here. Shelke’s candidacy signifies an attempt to both reach disenchanted Congress supporters and potentially set a historic milestone as the district’s first female MLA, should she succeed.

Yet her road to victory is far from smooth. She faces Sanjay Gaikwad of the rival Shiv Sena, a local figure whose record of controversial statements reflects the abrasive brand of Shiv Sena politics that has resonated with a segment of Buldhana’s electorate.

Meanwhile, the VBA, under Ambedkar’s leadership, continues to exert a disruptive influence across constituencies in Akola, where Ambedkar had been an MP in past decades. Though the VBA came a cropper in the 2024 Lok Sabha, with its vote share drastically plummeting, it still retains the capacity to queer the pitch.

In the 2019 Assembly elections, the VBA’s alliance with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) splintered votes across a number of seats, denying the Congress-NCP-Shiv Sena alliance (the MVA) several victories in key constituencies. In this year’s Lok Sabha election, the VBA failed to repeat its act. And yet, it cut into the opposition MVA’s votes in the Akola and Buldhana Lok Sabha seats, where the votes polled by the VBA’s candidates sealed the fates of the MVA contestants.

Ambedkar, recovering from recent health issues, has claimed that the OBCs – traditionally BJP’s core base in the state – will not vote saffron; his proclamations come amid his efforts to stitch a coalition of OBCs, SCs and STs. Yet, the strength of the VBA’s grassroots support will determine in this election whether the party will retain its status as a spoiler or whether the time has come to write Ambedkar’s political obituary.