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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Now, Ajit Dada of NCP

Updated: Nov 25, 2024

NCP

Mumbai: The NCP chief Ajit Pawar has strengthened his position in the Mahayuti not only by winning 41 seats but with an impressive strike rate of 65 per cent. This performance has put the full stop on the whispering of whether Ajit Pawar is still relevant for Mahayuti.


The ruling alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar was ahead in 231 of the state’s 288 seats. Within the Mahayuti, it is the BJP that is ahead; the saffron party is leading in 132 of the 149 seats it is contesting. The Shinde Sena is ahead in 55 of the 81 it is contesting and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 40 of 59.


Considering the figures BJP and Shiv Sena can easily form the government. However, the BJP leadership is in no mood to upset the alliance. Nevertheless, the RSS has some reservations about Ajit Pawar. But the BJP has decided to continue with the three-party alliance even in future. Ajit Pawar’s clout in Western Maharashtra especially in the sugar belt cannot be overlooked and in this backdrop BJP will not desert NCP.


The MVA - decimated after claiming victory in the Lok Sabha election this year, in which it won 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats. This time around the MVA managed to get only 52 seats. Its solo show aside, the BJP will still need both the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s seats to cross the two third majority mark. And it is those two that will put its larger ally out of reach of the MVA. Overall, the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar are on course to win 95 seats.


The Mahayuti is en route to a record win in the Maharashtra Assembly election, in which no alliance has ever crossed the magic 200-seat mark. In the Mahayuti, the Shinde Sena and the BJP appear to be at odds on the same issue, with the former batting for Shinde to continue and the latter pitching Fadnavis, who was the Chief Minister when the BJP and (then) undivided Sena were in power between 2014 and 2019. The NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar has thrown its hat in the ring too, on the back of hopes it will emerge as the ‘kingmaker’. However, a clear-cut verdict has ruled out this possibility.


Ajit has been considered to be the weakest link of the Mahayuti alliance since its formation and all through the seat-sharing talks for the election. The taunts along this line have come mostly from leaders of the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP who claimed the patriarch’s nephew “betrayed” the family only to end up in a “weak position” in Mahayuti.

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