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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Nuclear Nonsense

Why does United States President Donald Trump play diplomat in a region he neither understands nor respects? In a startling display of bluster, self-regard and strategic naivety, Trump once again inserted himself into a geopolitical fault line he barely comprehends when he announced that it was his ‘trade diplomacy’ that had apparently halted a looming nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan. Trump, who, on May 10 had unilaterally announced a ‘ceasefire’ between India and Pakistan even as the latter were being battered by Indian armaments, now makes a delusional claim that millions would have been killed had he not intervened to stop a potential nuclear conflict between the two countries.


Less than 24 hours after Trump’s boast, Pakistan violated the alleged truce with shelling in Jammu and drone activity in Baramulla. Trump’s ‘peace’ evaporated even before his gloating post had finished trending.


Facts have rarely stood in the way of Trump’s performative bravado. What makes this episode particularly insidious is the emerging backdrop of financial interest. Prior to the Pahalgam massacre and India’s subsequent retaliation in form of Operation Sindoor, a crypto-fintech firm majority-owned by the Trump family was warmly welcomed in Islamabad. Executives from World Liberty Financial, a DeFi outfit backed by Trump’s inner circle, met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister and Army Chief, signing a letter of intent to invest in the country’s fledgling blockchain sector. If this were any other ex-president, the affair might be dismissed as entrepreneurial overreach. But this is Trump, a man who habitually conflates diplomacy with dealmaking, statecraft with self-interest.


This dual role, as would-be peacemaker and crypto profiteer, is precisely what makes Trump’s intervention in South Asia both suspect and troubling. When he suggests the US used trade to twist arms in Delhi and Islamabad, one is left wondering: whose trade and for whose benefit? Is it for Elon Musk’s benefit? His claim that “we’re going to do a lot of trade with you guys” sounds less like official policy and more like the musings of a man who sees sovereign nations as clients and foreign crises as marketing opportunities.


India, for its part, has every reason to rebuff Trump’s unsolicited interference. New Delhi neither asked for his mediation nor acknowledged it. India responded to terrorism on its soil with calibrated military precision. It did not need a meddling American president to urge restraint, least of all one whose own understanding of the Kashmir conflict is as threadbare as his grasp of constitutional law. Even more galling is the insinuation that Trump, who champions ‘America First’ and has gleefully abandoned multilateral diplomacy, suddenly fancies himself an international statesman.


In truth, Trump’s India-Pakistan spectacle is a rehash of his old formula: fabricate chaos, claim to resolve it and position himself as indispensable. But global conflict is not a real estate negotiation. Nuclear brinkmanship cannot be bluffed into submission. And India’s tragedy and steely retaliation should not be reduced to a stage for Trump’s exhibitionism.

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