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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Of Nagging Namesakes and Family Showdowns

Updated: Nov 7, 2024

Family Showdowns

As Maharashtra approaches the November 20 Assembly elections, two constituencies in Eastern Vidarbha are standing out for their unusual and convoluted political dramas with more than a touch of the soap opera: They are Katol (in Nagpur district) and Aheri (in Gadchiroli). Here, a mix of personal legacies, familial ties, and a confusion of names have created a strange electoral landscape.


In Katol, the electoral contest is uniquely complicated by the presence of two candidates sharing the name of ‘Anil Deshmukh.’ Salil Deshmukh, the son of former Home Minister and NCP (SP) leader Anil Deshmukh, is making his electoral debut as the opposition MVA candidate. Katol has long been Anil Deshmukh and the undivided NCP’s stronghold in Vidarbha.


However, in a vexing development for Salil, his primary opponent, Anil Shankarrao Deshmukh, is not a relative but a local resident running on behalf of the ruling Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP. This coincidence of names adds an unexpected layer of intrigue to a constituency previously won a number of times by Salil’s father, Deshmukh senior.


Anil Deshmukh, affectionately known as ‘Anilbabu,’ carries substantial name recognition - a factor that could confuse many voters, particularly those loyal to the former minister who is well-liked in the region despite facing allegations of extortion that led to his imprisonment. The complications are exacerbated by the fact that Anil Shankarrao Deshmukh will contest under the NCP’s ‘Clock’ symbol — previously associated with Anilbabu when the NCP was undivided under Sharad Pawar — while Salil will represent the Tutari symbol (a man blowing a trumpet) of the NCP (SP).


The blend of names and symbols may well result in a muddled choice for voters, complicating Salil’s efforts to establish his own identity amid the weight of his father’s legacy.


Adding to the mix in Katol is the candidacy of Charansingh Thakur, a seasoned BJP leader and former president of the Katol Municipal Corporation. His presence ensures that the race is not just a familial squabble but a three-way contest.


Meanwhile, in Aheri, the electoral drama escalates into an even more personal narrative. Incumbent NCP MLA Dharmarao Atram finds himself pitted against his own daughter, Bhagyashree Atram-Halgekar, in a strange contest in a state traditionally known for its uncle-nephew face-offs.


The two are contesting from rival factions of the NCP, with Dharmarao standing for Ajit Pawar’s faction and Bhagyashree representing the Sharad Pawar camp. The stakes are high, not just for their political futures but for the very fabric of their family.


According to some quarters, Bhagyashree ascribes her decision to Sharad Pawar’s role in rescuing her father who was kidnapped by the Naxalites in the early 1990s. Whatever the real reason, Aheri’s electoral dynamic is further complicated by the presence of another family member, Dharmarao’s nephew, Ambrishrao, who is contesting as an independent, transforming this electoral battle into a triangular contest that could further fracture loyalties.


As the elections draw near, Katol and Aheri stand as microcosms of Maharashtra’s political landscape, illustrating the strange blend of the personal and the political that is defining the 2024 Assembly polls.

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