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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

Omar welcomes Indus Water Treaty suspension, calls it “most unfair document” for J&K



SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Friday welcomed the Central government’s decision to suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan following the deadly Pahalgam attack that claimed 26 lives. He also referred to the treaty as the “most unfair document” for the people of J&K.


“The Government of India has taken some steps. As far as Jammu and Kashmir is concerned, let’s be honest. We have never been in favour of the Indus Waters Treaty. We have always believed it to be the most unfair document to people of J&K,” Abdullah told reporters in Srinagar after meeting representatives from the tourism, trade, and industry sectors. However, he noted that the long-term impact of this move is still uncertain.


The IWT suspension is part of India’s response to the brutal attack. Other actions include expelling Pakistani military attaches and shutting down the Attari land-transit point immediately.


When questioned about the impact of the April 22 attack on the region’s tourism industry, Abdullah dismissed concerns about monetary losses. “At this juncture, we are not counting rupees or paisa. Not one of the businessmen or stakeholders in the tourism industry who attended the meeting lamented the loss of business. Not one of them expressed any concern about what would happen to them.”


“Right now, our priority is to express solidarity with the bereaved,” he said, adding, “At some point in future, we may sit down to discuss the financial implications (of the attack) on J&K’s economy. But not a single stakeholder present in the meeting raised a demand for monetary relief for the losses they are suffering.”


Omar described the tourist exodus from J&K after the massacre as “heartbreaking”. The future of the Valley’s tourism sector remains uncertain, with widespread trip cancellations following the attack.

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