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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 10:20:16 am

Unending War

The collapse of the United States-Iran ceasefire in less than a month is a stark reminder that peace in West Asia has become a remarkably perishable commodity. The ink on the ceasefire with Iran had scarcely dried before missiles are once again crossing the Gulf as oil tankers flee the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump’s triumphalist declaration last month that Iran had accepted an “unconditional surrender” has aged with astonishing speed. The latest cycle of escalation was almost preordained....

Unending War

The collapse of the United States-Iran ceasefire in less than a month is a stark reminder that peace in West Asia has become a remarkably perishable commodity. The ink on the ceasefire with Iran had scarcely dried before missiles are once again crossing the Gulf as oil tankers flee the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump’s triumphalist declaration last month that Iran had accepted an “unconditional surrender” has aged with astonishing speed. The latest cycle of escalation was almost preordained. Iran struck commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington retaliated with attacks on more than 80 Iranian targets and restored crippling oil sanctions. Tehran answered by targeting American military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait. Once again, each side believes escalation demonstrates strength, even as it steadily reduces the space for negotiation. The flaw lay in the agreement itself. It addressed symptoms rather than causes. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief created an uneasy commercial bargain but ignored the larger strategic contest involving Israel, Hezbollah and Iran's regional ambitions. A ceasefire that leaves the principal combatants pursuing contradictory military objectives is deferred conflict. The consequences extend far beyond the Gulf. Nearly a fifth of the world's traded crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Even without a complete blockade, heightened risks push insurance premiums higher, directly affecting oil prices, which have already begun to climb. Financial markets, already grappling with slow growth and persistent inflation, now confront another geopolitical shock. For India, the implications are particularly severe. Despite diversifying its energy basket, the country remains heavily dependent on imported crude, much of it originating in or transiting through the Gulf. Higher oil prices threaten to widen the current account deficit, weaken the rupee and strain government finances already balancing welfare commitments with ambitious infrastructure spending. Inflation, which policymakers have so far fought hard to contain, could once again become stubbornly entrenched. Dearer crude means more expensive petrol and diesel, higher freight charges, rising food prices and increased costs for everything from airline tickets to household essentials. Businesses face shrinking margins while consumers absorb yet another round of inflation that has nothing to do with domestic policy failures. The tragedy is that none of the principal actors appears capable of recognising this wider cost. Washington continues to mistake military punishment for strategic resolution. Tehran clings to maritime coercion as leverage. Israel remains convinced that only sustained military pressure guarantees its security. Collectively, they are engineering strategic catastrophe. The world has seen this script too many times in recent months. The Strait of Hormuz has become the global economy’s most dangerous choke point. And the greatest casualty of this renewed conflict is the fragile economic stability upon which billions of ordinary people depend.

Omar welcomes Indus Water Treaty suspension, calls it “most unfair document” for J&K



SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Friday welcomed the Central government’s decision to suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan following the deadly Pahalgam attack that claimed 26 lives. He also referred to the treaty as the “most unfair document” for the people of J&K.


“The Government of India has taken some steps. As far as Jammu and Kashmir is concerned, let’s be honest. We have never been in favour of the Indus Waters Treaty. We have always believed it to be the most unfair document to people of J&K,” Abdullah told reporters in Srinagar after meeting representatives from the tourism, trade, and industry sectors. However, he noted that the long-term impact of this move is still uncertain.


The IWT suspension is part of India’s response to the brutal attack. Other actions include expelling Pakistani military attaches and shutting down the Attari land-transit point immediately.


When questioned about the impact of the April 22 attack on the region’s tourism industry, Abdullah dismissed concerns about monetary losses. “At this juncture, we are not counting rupees or paisa. Not one of the businessmen or stakeholders in the tourism industry who attended the meeting lamented the loss of business. Not one of them expressed any concern about what would happen to them.”


“Right now, our priority is to express solidarity with the bereaved,” he said, adding, “At some point in future, we may sit down to discuss the financial implications (of the attack) on J&K’s economy. But not a single stakeholder present in the meeting raised a demand for monetary relief for the losses they are suffering.”


Omar described the tourist exodus from J&K after the massacre as “heartbreaking”. The future of the Valley’s tourism sector remains uncertain, with widespread trip cancellations following the attack.

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