On the horns of a dilemma

Mumbai: As the euphoria of the first public stage sharing of Thackeray cousins – Uddhav and Raj – ebbs, strategists and soothsayers on both sides get down to the brasstacks of a possible political alliance between Shiv Sena (UBT)-Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

The die-hard assertions of ex-chief minister and SS (UBT) President Uddhav Thackeray and MNS President Raj Thackeray at the June 5 victory rally for the cause of ‘Marathi’ and ‘Marathi Manoos’ earned them dollops of publicity and goodwill among the ordinary folks.

It also rekindled fervent hopes of the ‘Thackeray brand’ catapulting back to the political centre-stage – as in the times of the (undivided) Shiv Sena founder the late Balasaheb Thackeray.

Yet, a key question nags the key organizers of the two parties: “What shape will the proposed political alliance take and which side will benefit most, as ‘one bucket is empty and the other is full’, as that can upset the balance,” as a senior SS (UBT) functionary explained.

Depending on the kind of tie-up – it would be long-term, as proclaimed by Uddhav – the first testing ground would be the upcoming civic elections in the state, which maybe held around December, as per a senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader today.

“Many factors will be considered when the actual bargaining starts… Despite common (Thackeray family) origins, both parties are separate entities, legally and politically, with two high-profile leaders, including one (Uddhav) who has served as the state CM. Can't rule out angry flashes and egoistic clashes,” admitted a MNS leader.

Boost to confidence

The confidence levels on both sides received a booster dose after the July 5 joint rally when the Thackeray cousins hugged and shook hands after 20 years, but a lot of water has flown in the Mithi River in the past two decades.

A former SS (UBT) office-bearer pointed out how the cousins went their separate ways, Uddhav went onto become the first-ever CM from the Thackeray clan, Raj went around playing ‘videos’ lampooning leaders from all sides till he became ignorable.

Raj became synonymous with flip-flops, at times supporting the BJP and at other times opposing it, praising or ridiculing its leadership, a fresh somersault after his date with the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in Aug. 2019 – just before the Assembly elections that saw his cousin wearing the CM’s crown.

In between, he treaded on many toes including the North Indians, the Gujaratis, the Muslim with the mosque loudspeakers campaign, etc. that made the MNS almost ‘politically untouchable’ – till the BJP gave the 3-language formula issue on a platter.

“Under such circumstances, it remains to be seen if Uddhav can afford the political risks associated with the MNS. How much will the MNS spare and reciprocate? The hugs at the top-level are good enough, but will the bonhomie percolate to the grassroots where domains are fiercely guarded, and could lead to sabotage,” averred the SS (UBT) leader.

Moreover, Raj had unabashedly appealed for votes and the CM’s post ‘at least once, to set right things’ in the state that may weigh in Big Brother Uddhav’s calculations – as the latter also must consider the interests of gen-next – if the alliance goes to the next level.

The MVA brotherhood

The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is abuzz with talks of the ally Shiv Sena (UBT) joining hands with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), and its future ramifications, especially for the other two partners, a sulking Congress and a wary Nationalist Congress Party (SP).

Congress skipped the July 5 event as it felt the ‘lost-and-found’ Thackeray kin had allegedly hijacked the credit for the success of the anti-Hindi campaign it had started, while the NCP (SP) considers the SS (UBT)-MNS brotherhood may strengthen the MVA.

Queries whether the SS (UBT)-MNS could edge out the Congress-NCP (SP), evoked much mirth, with a Congress leader saying, “first they need to spell out the extent of their tie-up” and a NCP (SP) functionary feeling its “too premature” to even comment on it.

They explain how the other three current allies are established parties with electoral successes compared with MNS that usually occupied the political pavements, plus it is not clear what shape the MVA may take before the civic elections.

Once there is full clarity on all this, it would need a lot of give-and-take, compromises, ego-clashes and heart-burns – all potential ingredients to rock the boat, unless there is complete mutual trust and patience, they said.