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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

‘Our formulations cater to needs of grapplers’

Updated: Mar 3, 2025

Siddharth Singh is known as India’s accomplished athlete. He has turned into an entrepreneur with a lunch of a supplement brand. The pioneer of MMA (Mixed Martial Arts) talks to ‘The Perfect Voice’ regarding his journey as an entrepreneur and future plans. Excerpts...

Siddharth Singh

From an MSc in International Strategy and Economics to becoming India's first competitive Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. How did your educational background influence your approach to entrepreneurship?

My journey in martial arts has been driven by a deep passion for combat sports. However, building Crosstrain Fight Club—India’s leading MMA academy—required more than just technical expertise; it needed strategic planning, business acumen, and brand development. My education and corporate experience played a crucial role in making this vision a reality.


My MSc in International Strategy and Economics from the University of St Andrews provided me with the tools to plan and structure India’s first MMA academy in a way that ensured long-term sustainability and growth. My journey—from an athlete to a coach and entrepreneur—has been fueled by a mix of martial arts passion, strategic education, and corporate branding expertise. With Crosstrain Fight Club, my mission is to continue developing India’s next generation of world-class MMA athletes and elevating Indian MMA on the global stage.


What gaps in the market did you identify that inspired you to create a supplement brand specifically for the Indian fitness community?

As an athlete and coach, I’ve always believed that success in combat sports isn’t just about skill and training—it’s also about what fuels your body. When I founded Crosstrain Fight Club, my mission was to create a training environment that could produce world-class athletes in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, MMA, and other combat sports. But one major challenge stood in the way—high-quality sports nutrition was either too expensive or simply not available in India.


That’s why I started 191 Nutrition.


I saw firsthand how athletes in India struggled to find affordable yet effective supplements to support their training. Either they had to compromise on quality, or they had to pay a premium for imported products. This wasn’t acceptable to me. Our athletes deserve the best, and I wanted to create a brand that delivers world-class supplementation at Indian prices.


How does 191 Nutrition stand out in such a crowded market?

From day one, I made sure that 191 Nutrition was something I could personally trust—for myself, my family, and my students at Crosstrain Fight Club. Every product we release is tested and used by me, my entire team, and some of the top athletes in the country.


Today, 191 Nutrition is proud to be the choice of AJP Pro Jiu-Jitsu League and ADCC India athletes. These are some of the best grapplers and fighters in the country, competing at the highest levels, and they trust 191 Nutrition to fuel their journey.


We focus on science-backed formulations that cater specifically to the needs of grapplers, MMA fighters, and strength athletes. Whether it’s protein, recovery supplements, or performance enhancers, every product is designed to meet the demands of combat sports.


How do you ensure that 191 Nutrition’s offerings align with the needs of both elite athletes and everyday fitness enthusiasts?

When I launched 191 Nutrition, my goal wasn’t just to create supplements for professional fighters and athletes. I wanted to build products that would help anyone—from elite competitors to everyday fitness enthusiasts—perform at their best.


Whether you’re an ADCC India or AJP Pro athlete preparing for the next big tournament or someone juggling work, family, and training, your body has unique demands. 191 Nutrition is designed to meet those demands with precision—helping athletes recover faster while also ensuring regular people stay active and healthy.


You’ve trained over 5,000 women in self-defense. Can you share your experience?

At Crosstrain Fight Club, we have had the privilege of training over 5,000 women in self-defense over the past 12 years. While this has been an incredible journey, I believe we can do 10 times more in the next 10 years.

To make this vision a reality, we are launching a dedicated foundation that will work exclusively with orphanages, NGOs, and schools that focus on empowering young girls. Our mission is to equip them with essential physical and psychological self-defense techniques, helping them build confidence, awareness, and the ability to recognize potential threats.


What’s next for you both as an athlete and an entrepreneur?

With the UFC's global influence expanding, more Indian audiences are becoming aware of the sport, leading to a surge in participation at both amateur and professional levels. Fighters like Anshul Jubli and Pooja Tomar have proven that Indian athletes can compete on the biggest stages, inspiring the next generation to take up the sport seriously. Their success has also caught the attention of international promotions, opening doors for more Indian talent.


The next decade will be crucial in developing grassroots training programs, increasing sponsorship opportunities, and creating a structured ecosystem that allows Indian fighters to thrive.

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