top of page

By:

Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after...

Fractured Crown

Between Siddaramaiah’s grip on power and Shivakumar’s restless ambition, the Karnataka Congress is trapped in a succession spiral. Karnataka Karnataka today has two chief ministers - one by office, the other by expectation. The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and his deputy, D.K. Shivakumar, has slipped so completely into the open that the Congress’s ritual denials sound like political farce. A whispered ‘understanding’ after the 2023 victory that each would get the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years has hardened into a public confrontation between a chief minister determined to finish five years and a deputy increasingly unwilling to wait. The recent breakfast meeting between the two men at Siddaramaiah’s residence was presented as a truce where the ‘high command’ was invoked as the final arbiter. “There are no differences between us,” Siddaramaiah insisted, twice for emphasis. Few were convinced and soon, Shivakumar was again hinting darkly at change. For weeks, Shivakumar’s loyalists have been holding meetings, mobilising legislators and making pilgrimages to Delhi to get the Congress high command to honour its promise. They insist that the Congress leadership agreed to a rotational chief ministership in 2023 and that November 2025 was always meant to mark Shivakumar’s ascent. The high command, for its part, has perfected the art of strategic vagueness by neither confirming nor denying the pact. This suggests that the Congress does not merely hesitate to act against Siddaramaiah, but increasingly lacks the capacity to do so. From the outset of his second innings, Siddaramaiah has given no signal of easing aside. As he approaches January 2026, poised to overtake D. Devaraj Urs as Karnataka’s longest-serving chief minister, the symbolism is unmistakable. The mantle of social justice politics that Urs once embodied now firmly sits on Siddaramaiah’s shoulders. And it is this social coalition that shields him. His fortress is AHINDA - minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Leaked figures from the unreleased caste census suggest that these groups together approach or exceed two-thirds of the state’s population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas, once electorally dominant, are rendered numerical minorities in this arithmetic. Siddaramaiah governs not merely as a Congress leader, but as the putative custodian of Karnataka’s demographic majority. That claim is reinforced through policy. Minority scholarships have been revived, contractor quotas restored, residential schools expanded. More than Rs. 42,000 crore has been earmarked for Scheduled Castes and Tribes. Kurubas, his own community, have been pitched for Scheduled Tribe status, with careful assurances that their elevation will not disadvantage others. DK Shivakumar brings organisational muscle, financial clout and control over the Vokkaliga heartland. In electoral campaigns, these are formidable assets. But in a confrontation with a leader who embodies a 60–70 percent social coalition, they are blunt instruments. The Congress high command understands this equation, even if it publicly pretends otherwise. It also remembers, uneasily, what Siddaramaiah did the last time his authority was constrained. In 2020, when the Congress–JD(S) coalition collapsed after 16 MLAs defected to Mumbai,13 of them hailed from Siddaramaiah’s camp. At the time, he held the post of coordination committee chairman. Instead, he emerged as the principal beneficiary of collapse, returning as Leader of the Opposition with a tighter grip on the party. If the Congress high command could not punish him then, it is doubtful it can coerce him now. Shivakumar’s predicament is thus more tragic than tactical. He is not battling a rival alone, but an entire political structure built to outlast him. The promised coronation looks increasingly like a mirage drifting just ahead of a man condemned to keep walking. For the Congress, the cost of this paralysis is already visible. A government elected on guarantees and governance is consumed by succession. The party’s authority is dissolving while its factions harden. The Congress returned to power in Karnataka after years in the wilderness, only to re-enact the same leadership dysfunction that has crippled it elsewhere. Regardless of whether Siddaramaiah survives this storm, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Congress cannot survive the slow corrosion of its command in one of the few states it holds today.

Outsiders Welcome

Updated: Oct 30, 2024

Sudhir Mungantiwar

As the clock keeps ticking relentlessly towards the Maharashtra Assembly election on November 20, tensions simmering within the BJP ranks in eastern Vidarbha do not augur well for the ruling party.

Recent remarks by senior minister and six-term MLA , underscore the party’s internal strife regarding the candidacy of ‘outsider’ Kishor Jorgewar for the Chandrapur Assembly segment. While Mungantiwar’s public dissent against Jorgewar’s potential nomination seemingly reflects a broader unease within the party’s grassroots cadre, it highlighting the saffron party’s challenges of balancing electoral strategy with the loyalty of its dyed-in-wool cadre.


It also reflects a paradox: the BJP, in the name of ‘winnability’ is willing to embrace anyone (the induction of Ajit Pawar’s NCP being the most potent instance of this strategy) causing leaders like Mungantiwar, opposed tooth and nail to Jorgewar’s entry, now forced to welcome him out of ‘pragmatism.’

Kishor Jorgewar’s induction into the BJP was finalized after intense negotiations in Mumbai and Delhi over the past four days. Mungantiwar, who reportedly baulked before the BJP top brass in Delhi including Amit Shah, later did a volte face, saying he was changing his stance for the party’s benefit.


At Delhi, Mungantiwar had addressed the local BJP’s concerns about Jorgewar’s potential candidacy while suggesting that a dedicated BJP loyalist like Brajbhushan Pazare, should be nominated instead for Chandrapur. Ultimately, the BJP chose to back Jorgewar, while reportedly appeasing Mungantiwar’s confidante, Devrao Bhongle, with a ticket for the Rajura constituency.


Jorgewar, the incumbent MLA of the Chandrapur constituency, has long been the bete noire of Mungantiwar, the current legislator of adjacent Ballarpur.


The political dynamics of Chandrapur have been reflective of the shifts in the eastern Vidarbha region. Dominated by Congress from 1960 to 1990, the BJP started gaining ground there in the 1990s, with Mungantiwar holding the Chandrapur seat from 1995 until the 2008 delimitation reclassified the constituency as reserved for Scheduled Castes. While Mungantiwar shifted to Ballarpur, the seat was still retained by the BJP in the form of ex-MLA Nana Shamkule, who won both the 2009 and 2014 Assembly contests. However, BJP’s hold on Chandrapur was broken in 2019, when Jorgewar, fighting as an independent candidate, unseated Shamkule.


Despite internal opposition, some BJP leaders see Jorgewar’s candidacy as advantageous, and the central leadership, including Union Home Minister Amit Shah, is open to importing candidates based on merit. The Maharashtra Assembly polls have become crucial for the BJP’s state and central leadership after the party’s dismal performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections.


Yet, the question lingers whether importing candidates will enhance the BJP’s electoral fortunes, or will it sow discord among party loyalists?


The implications of this dilemma extend beyond Chandrapur. Discontent is surfacing in other constituencies in eastern Vidarbha like Katol, where local leaders express dissatisfaction over potential nominations that threaten their standing. Ashish Deshmukh’s apprehensions regarding the candidacy of Charan Thakur highlight a growing concern that the central command’s decisions could further fracture local support.


The BJP’s underwhelming performance in the Lok Sabha elections certainly has intensified the urgency to fortify its ranks, particularly in strategically vital regions like Vidarbha. This sentiment is echoed in private conversations among BJP leaders, where the prospect of inducting turncoat candidates is seen as a ‘necessary evil’ only in exceptional circumstances.


And yet, the pursuit of ‘outsiders’ like Jorgewar reflects a desperate strategy in the face of electoral vulnerability. The need to balance meritocracy with grassroots loyalty has never been more urgent for the BJP.

Comments

bottom of page