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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Patole’s Pivotal Play

Updated: Nov 15, 2024

Nana Patole

One of the most closely watched contests in western Vidarbha in the November 20 Maharashtra assembly elections will be in Sakoli constituency, where Nana Patole, the outspoken state Congress chief, is seeking re-election. His battle for a fourth term would be pivotal not only for his own political future but also for Congress’ staying power in Vidarbha which has witnessed a dramatic realignment of political forces in recent years.


In an eventful career of political switches, Patole had first left the Congress and joined the BJP on the eve of the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and contested from Bhandara-Gondia (of which Sakoli is part of), defeating NCP heavyweight Praful Patel. Patole then famously quit the BJP in 2018 for the Congress after claiming he had been slighted by PM Narendra Modi, and then equally impulsively, stepped down as Maharashtra Assembly Speaker in 2021.


Along with Vijay Wadettiwar, Patole is the Congress’ most prominent OBC face here with a strong ground connect in rural Vidarbha. When he switched parties in 2018, he had cited his disillusionment with the BJP’s handling of issues important to farmers. Since then, he has built a staunch voter base by positioning himself as a fierce advocate for the region’s agrarian concerns.

While he won Sakoli in the 2019 Assembly polls, the current election presents a much more challenging prospect despite the Congress (and the MVA) delivering a sterling performance in this belt in the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year.


This time, Patole is pitted against the BJP’s Avinash Brahmankar - a former independent who has carved out a space for himself as an alternative to the Congressman. Brahmankar, it is said, has the backing of both the BJP and local anti-Congress factions. Brahmankar’s entry into the race has already galvanized the BJP’s base, which sees an opportunity to dethrone Patole, who has become something of a lightning rod for criticism from his former party and within the MVA as well.


While Patole’s position as the Congress state president and his advocacy for the OBC community are likely to keep him a formidable challenger, the BJP’s growing influence in Sakoli cannot be underestimated.

For Patole, the stakes are high. As Congress’s chief contender for the Chief Minister’s office in Maharashtra, his performance in Sakoli will shape the party’s prospects in Vidarbha – a region where the Maharashtra Congress’ strength is most concentrated.


In nearby Gondia, Patole’s influence effected a dramatic coup in getting veteran local leader Gopaldas Agrawal to rejoin the Congress after a five-year dalliance with the BJP. Agrawal, a former three-time MLA from Gondia, was promptly fielded as the MVA’s candidate where he takes on the BJP’s Vinod Agrawal.

As Agrawal seeks redemption, the Congress is bolstered by the recent joining of another former BJP local heavyweight, Shishupal Patle. Patle’s political career has seen dramatic highs and lows, including his famous 2004 defeat of Praful Patel, then the Union Minister of State for Civil Aviation.


Amidst these contests, rising stars are seeking to make a lasting mark in eastern Vidarbha’s political firmament. Narendra Bhondekar, incumbent MLA of Bhandara, who joined the ruling Shiv Sena led by CM Eknath Shinde after jettisoning his ‘independent’ status, is seeking re-election for a third time. His advocacy for sustainable agriculture and green energy initiatives has earned him significant grassroots support. Shinde has promised Bhondekar the Guardian Ministership of Bhandara if he wins this time.


This year’s election cycle is unlike any other, with political alliances and rivalries in East Vidarbha heating up as the clock ticks relentlessly to polling day.

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