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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

People praise Army for protecting

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah interacts with displaced border residents at a shelter camp.
Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah interacts with displaced border residents at a shelter camp.

Garkhal (J&K): Men and machines of the armed forces worked meticulously to ensure the interception of Kamikaze drones and missiles fired by Pakistani troops targeting Jammu, drawing widespread appreciation from people.


India on Thursday night swiftly thwarted Pakistan's fresh attempts to strike military sites with drones and missiles, including in Jammu and Pathankot, after foiling similar bids at 15 locations across the country's northern and western regions, amid a military conflict between the two neighbours.


Looking after the operational area of Jammu under the command of the 9 Corps, the 26 Infantry Division, nicknamed the "Tiger Division", had put in place a robust air-defence system, virtually carving out an Israel-type Iron Dome to protect Jammu from a Hamas-style attack by Pakistan.


An official who was privy to the developments said it was a meticulous combination of men and machines in defence that thwarted such a massive Pakistani attack.


In the dead of night, Pakistan unleashed its most audacious assault on Jammu since the 1971 war, deploying a swarm of more than a hundred Kamikaze drones and missiles in a sinister attempt to devastate the city. But what followed was a show of unmatched precision, courage and resilience.


"We are indebted to our armed forces who have saved Jammu from a major attack by Pakistan. We appreciate them for their missionary work. We never thought these bombs could be neutralised in the air," Garkhal resident Sikender Singh said.


Singh, whose family, along with more than 500 villagers, has shifted to safer camps set up by the government in Mishriwala on the Jammu outskirts, said had the bombs not been intercepted, they could have caused massive deaths and destruction.


Finest system

The Army, backed by one of the world's finest air-defence systems, intercepted the aerial barrage with astonishing accuracy -- virtually every hostile object was destroyed mid-air. Not a single vital installation was touched. Not a single civilian life was lost.


"Eight missiles from Pakistan were directed at Satwari, Samba, R S Pura and Arnia. All were intercepted and blocked by air-defence units. Visuals over Jammu reminded exactly of a Hamas-style attack on Israel, like multiple cheap rockets," an Army official said.


He said the Pakistan Army is operating and behaving like Hamas. "Drones were sighted at multiple places along the western front -- confirmed to be hostile. They are being effectively engaged by our air-defence systems. Pakistani drone attacks have been reported at various locations along the western borders and are being effectively countered by the Indian armed forces," he added.


The multi-tier air-defence system, with a twin technological security architecture of Russian and Israeli surface-to-air missile setups and the indigenous Akash, was a game changer against such attacks.


Former Jammu and Kashmir director general of police S P Vaid appreciated the armed forces and their technological security systems for effectively dealing with the Pakistani attacks.


He said 50 to 60 air attacks by Pakistan over Jammu and other places were neutralised on Thursday night by the impregnable air-defence system of the country.


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