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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

People praise Army for protecting

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah interacts with displaced border residents at a shelter camp.
Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah interacts with displaced border residents at a shelter camp.

Garkhal (J&K): Men and machines of the armed forces worked meticulously to ensure the interception of Kamikaze drones and missiles fired by Pakistani troops targeting Jammu, drawing widespread appreciation from people.


India on Thursday night swiftly thwarted Pakistan's fresh attempts to strike military sites with drones and missiles, including in Jammu and Pathankot, after foiling similar bids at 15 locations across the country's northern and western regions, amid a military conflict between the two neighbours.


Looking after the operational area of Jammu under the command of the 9 Corps, the 26 Infantry Division, nicknamed the "Tiger Division", had put in place a robust air-defence system, virtually carving out an Israel-type Iron Dome to protect Jammu from a Hamas-style attack by Pakistan.


An official who was privy to the developments said it was a meticulous combination of men and machines in defence that thwarted such a massive Pakistani attack.


In the dead of night, Pakistan unleashed its most audacious assault on Jammu since the 1971 war, deploying a swarm of more than a hundred Kamikaze drones and missiles in a sinister attempt to devastate the city. But what followed was a show of unmatched precision, courage and resilience.


"We are indebted to our armed forces who have saved Jammu from a major attack by Pakistan. We appreciate them for their missionary work. We never thought these bombs could be neutralised in the air," Garkhal resident Sikender Singh said.


Singh, whose family, along with more than 500 villagers, has shifted to safer camps set up by the government in Mishriwala on the Jammu outskirts, said had the bombs not been intercepted, they could have caused massive deaths and destruction.


Finest system

The Army, backed by one of the world's finest air-defence systems, intercepted the aerial barrage with astonishing accuracy -- virtually every hostile object was destroyed mid-air. Not a single vital installation was touched. Not a single civilian life was lost.


"Eight missiles from Pakistan were directed at Satwari, Samba, R S Pura and Arnia. All were intercepted and blocked by air-defence units. Visuals over Jammu reminded exactly of a Hamas-style attack on Israel, like multiple cheap rockets," an Army official said.


He said the Pakistan Army is operating and behaving like Hamas. "Drones were sighted at multiple places along the western front -- confirmed to be hostile. They are being effectively engaged by our air-defence systems. Pakistani drone attacks have been reported at various locations along the western borders and are being effectively countered by the Indian armed forces," he added.


The multi-tier air-defence system, with a twin technological security architecture of Russian and Israeli surface-to-air missile setups and the indigenous Akash, was a game changer against such attacks.


Former Jammu and Kashmir director general of police S P Vaid appreciated the armed forces and their technological security systems for effectively dealing with the Pakistani attacks.


He said 50 to 60 air attacks by Pakistan over Jammu and other places were neutralised on Thursday night by the impregnable air-defence system of the country.


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