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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect...

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect elections only become newsworthy under specific conditions: either the ruling coalition is plagued by internal fissures, or the opposition is too fragmented to put up a united front. In Maharashtra, however, the political landscape remains highly volatile. Recently, the Rajya Sabha elections became the center of intense media scrutiny, and over the past week, the Legislative Council polls followed suit. Although all ten candidates—nine from the ruling alliance and one from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—are now set to be elected unopposed, the intricate backroom maneuvers that led to this truce kept the state’s political circles buzzing. Interestingly, the reason for this heightened news value can be traced to both a subtle tug-of-war within the ruling combine and a visibly weakened opposition. Shifting Strategy The maneuvering within the opposition ranks has been particularly telling. A major focal point of the election buildup was the anticipated candidacy of Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray. After generating considerable hype and speculation about a potential return to the legislature, Thackeray ultimately chose to withdraw from the electoral fray. This sudden pullback forced a rapid recalibration within the MVA. Initially, the Congress party had adopted an aggressive posture, declaring its intention to field a candidate if Thackeray decided against contesting. However, following closed-door deliberations with Shiv Sena (UBT) leadership, the Congress quietly backed down. Why the state Congress leadership so readily acquiesced to this sudden change in strategy, sacrificing a potential seat, remains a mystery and a subject of intense debate among political observers. On the other side of the aisle, the ruling Mahayuti coalition maximized this electoral opportunity to consolidate its political base, reward loyalists, and balance complex regional equations. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strategically paved the way for the political rehabilitation of former Congress legislator Zishan Siddique by nominating him to the Legislative Council. This calculated move introduces a prominent new Muslim face for the party, likely intended to fill the leadership vacuum in Mumbai left by veteran leader Nawab Malik. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde used his nominations to send a definitive message about the premium he places on loyalty. By securing another term for Dr. Neelam Gorhe, Shinde demonstrated that those who stood by his faction would be adequately rewarded. Furthermore, by bringing Vidarbha strongman Bachchu Kadu into the fold, Shinde has attempted to anchor his party’s future and expand its footprint in a region predominantly controlled by his senior alliance partner, the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party, playing its characteristic long game, meticulously ensured that its list of six candidates struck the perfect organizational, social, and political balance. Battle for LOP Despite these broader alliance strategies, the most consequential nomination in this electoral cycle is arguably that of Ambadas Danve. Barely six months after completing his tenure in the Upper House and stepping down from the prestigious post of Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, Danve has been nominated once again by the Shiv Sena (UBT). With his return to the house, there is a strong possibility that he will reclaim his former post. This specific development highlights a much deeper crisis within the Congress. Following Danve’s brief retirement, the Congress had naturally emerged as the largest opposition party in the Upper House. This mathematical advantage theoretically paved the way for their Kolhapur strongman, Satej “Banti” Patil, to lay claim to the Leader of the Opposition’s chair. However, the sudden defection of Congress MLC Pradnya Satav, who switched loyalties to the BJP, severely dented the party’s numbers. Her departure brought the Congress’s strength in the house just below that of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Stripped of its numerical superiority overnight, the Congress was relegated to being a mute spectator, unable to assert its rightful claim. Internal Dissent This series of tactical defeats has triggered palpable frustration within the Congress’s state unit. One senior Congress leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed deep disappointment with the state leadership’s inability to protect the party’s interests. “Everyone has personal political ambitions, but leaders must learn the ways to collectively move ahead and strategize,” the leader remarked, attributing the party’s current stagnation in Maharashtra to this lack of cohesive vision. In short, these Legislative Council elections have delivered one message loud and clear: even when everything appears calm and stable on the surface, the relentless machinery of politics continues to churn behind the scenes. No political player in Maharashtra can afford to rest assured or sit idle under the illusion that there are no major state elections until 2029.

Permission Denied

In the combustible politics of Maharashtra, where identity and language have long been flashpoints, discretion and judgement are key to policing. But Madhukar Pandey, hitherto the Commissioner of Police for Mira Bhayandar–Vasai Virar (MBVV), showed none. By denying permission for a rally to defend Marathi pride, he has not only embarrassed the ruling Mahayuti government but also handed a new lease of life to the rabble-rousing Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), which thrives on such spectacles.


The protest rally in question, led by the MNS and backed by opposition groups including Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP), was called in response to a disturbing incident in Mira Road in which a shopkeeper was assaulted by MNS workers for not speaking Marathi. Sensing an opportunity to stoke sentiment and revive its relevance, a march was organised under the banner to assert the cultural identity of the region. It had all the makings of a one-day flare-up that could have passed unnoticed had it been handled with intelligence.


Instead, Pandey chose the most counterproductive option by prohibiting the rally entirely. A flat denial of permission was never going to de-escalate tensions but would instead stoke flames of unrest, which is exactly what happened. The early-morning arrest of MNS leader Avinash Jadhav from his Thane residence turned him into a local hero. By attempting to preempt the protest with ham-fisted tactics, the police ensured it grabbed headlines, drew sympathisers from across party lines, and ballooned into an embarrassment for the state.


The result was chaos on the streets and a public relations disaster for the ruling Mahayuti coalition. Shiv Sena minister Pratap Sarnaik, who tried to ride the Marathi pride wave, was heckled and forced to retreat. Scenes of disarray went viral.


Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who also handles the Home portfolio, tried to contain the fallout by claiming the rally was allowed but that the organisers chose a provocative route. That is splitting hairs. A controlled and permitted procession, kept under a tight police cordon, would likely have passed without incident. Besides being tactically inept, Pandey’s refusal to grant permission in hindsight was politically suicidal.


There is a bitter irony here. By trying to suppress the rally in the name of law and order, Pandey ended up amplifying it. A march that might have drawn a few hundred loyalists instead transmogrified into a symbol of state overreach and cultural affront.


The state government has now done what governments usually do when faced with such blunders: they’ve removed the officer. Pandey has been transferred with immediate effect and replaced by Niket Kaushik. But the damage is done. The BJP-led Mahayuti coalition has been made to look jittery, reactive and out of touch with the cultural currents it claims to represent.


In situations of identity-based tension, the job of the police is not to suppress dissent but to channel it safely. Denying permission gave the protest and the MNS more visibility, sympathy and momentum than they ever deserved.

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