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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Political Biopics: Public Sentiment and Shifting Audiences

Updated: Nov 12, 2024

Political Biopics

In India, few topics evoke as much passion as cricket, politics, and films. Conversations on any of these can transform an acquaintance into a friend or a rival. Since 2014, however, even casual debates on these subjects often take on a political shade, with opinions quickly labelled as pro or anti-establishment. This is especially true for the film industry, which now explores previously 'untouchable' themes and crafts biopics on major political figures. Yet, as Maharashtra and Jharkhand prepare for elections, it's evident that these films aren't just cinematic ventures—they're reflections of societal and political sentiments.


A surge of recent films focused on political personalities has hit the screens, with varied receptions from the audience. Biopics like Sangharsh Yoddha Manoj Jarange Patil, which centres on the life of activist Manoj Jarange Patil, and Yek Number, inspired by the public persona of MNS chief Raj Thackeray, are among them. Despite their timely release ahead of state elections, the reception has been lukewarm.


The Marathi play Mala Kahi Tari Sangaycha Aahe—Eknath Sambhaji Shinde is another politically inspired piece, presenting CM Eknath Shinde in a positive light. Veteran theatre personality Ashok Samel, who brings this play to life, describes it as a “very positive” portrayal of Shinde’s character. Yet, like other recent films and performances, hope this play will turn the table and turns to be hit.


Earlier, in May 2022, Dharmaveer, a biopic on Anand Dighe, the charismatic Shiv Sena leader, received substantial attention just before Eknath Shinde's defection from the Shiv Sena. Released at a politically charged time, Dharmaveer resonated with audiences and presented Shinde and his associates positively, offering a glimpse into the intricate connections between cinema, politics, and public sentiment. Its sequel, Dharmaveer 2, delves deeper into Dighe's life and influence, attempting to connect past political legacies with present dynamics.


When examining the mixed success of political biopics on figures like Narendra Modi, Indira Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, and Lal Bahadur Shastri, a pattern emerges. Despite their appeal and the public’s respect for these figures, the box-office results have often been underwhelming.

The audiences for such films seem scattered, rather than concentrated, affecting ticket sales. Critics suggest a different release strategy could yield better results, with limited screenings that create exclusivity and attract dedicated viewers.


The challenge in crafting a successful political biopic may lie in accuracy and evidence. Audiences demand not just storytelling but an adherence to documented truth. The 1982 Hollywood film Gandhi serves as a case in point.


Today’s filmmakers may well need to look to Gandhi for inspiration. By grounding stories in verifiable events and making them relatable, they could bridge ideological divides and capture the public’s attention. As Indian cinema continues to venture into political territory, the challenge will be to offer authenticity and relevance, reflecting not only the lives of prominent leaders but also the public’s complex relationship with them.


(The author is a communication professional. Views personal.)

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