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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

NDA power matrix reshaped after success

AI generated image Mumbai: A quiet coup in the state has triggered a loud shift in the power dynamics of the nation’s capital. By engineering the defection of six additional MPs, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has nearly doubled his parliamentary muscle, transforming his Shiv Sena faction from a junior regional partner into an indispensable pillar of the NDA. Now sitting on a commanding 13 seats, Shinde has dramatically increased his political leverage—leaving a cautious BJP to weigh the...

NDA power matrix reshaped after success

AI generated image Mumbai: A quiet coup in the state has triggered a loud shift in the power dynamics of the nation’s capital. By engineering the defection of six additional MPs, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has nearly doubled his parliamentary muscle, transforming his Shiv Sena faction from a junior regional partner into an indispensable pillar of the NDA. Now sitting on a commanding 13 seats, Shinde has dramatically increased his political leverage—leaving a cautious BJP to weigh the cost of an emboldened ally demanding a bigger slice of the pie in both the Union and state cabinets. In a masterstroke of political engineering that has profoundly jolted political landscape, Shinde has once again demonstrated his formidable capacity for disruption. The rebellion of six out of nine Lok Sabha Members of Parliament from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), ostensibly joining Shinde’s ranks under the banner of “Operation Tiger,” is not merely a regional skirmish. It is a calculated power play that reverberates through the highest corridors of power in New Delhi. By nearly doubling his party’s strength in the lower house from seven to thirteen MPs, Shinde has dramatically altered his own political trajectory, elevating his faction from a helpful regional ally to an indispensable pillar of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Shinde’s Stature The immediate consequence of this crossover is a massive surge in Shinde’s stature within the NDA hierarchy. With thirteen parliamentarians, his Shiv Sena is now poised to become the fourth-largest bloc in the ruling national coalition, sitting just behind the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Telugu Desam Party, and the newly formed Nationalist Citizens Party of India. This numerical leap is of immense strategic value to the BJP-led central government. In a parliamentary environment where the ruling coalition possesses only a modest majority, every single seat counts. The central leadership is acutely aware of upcoming legislative hurdles, particularly ambitious constitutional amendments like the proposed delimitation bill, which will require a formidable two-thirds majority. By acting as the architect of this crucial numerical boost, Shinde has cemented his reputation as a reliable and highly effective operator for the NDA, significantly increasing his bargaining power and political leverage. National Relief For the BJP, this development evokes a complex mixture of profound national relief and acute regional anxiety. From the vantage point of PM Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Shinde’s successful poaching operation is a clear windfall. It simultaneously fortifies the NDA’s numerical strength in New Delhi while severely crippling a vocal opposition force in Maharashtra. The central BJP leadership views Shinde as a vital asset capable of bridging the gap between their current numbers and the overwhelming mandates of the past. However, the perspective from the Maharashtra BJP headquarters is noticeably more apprehensive. State BJP leaders openly acknowledge Shinde’s soaring political equity, but they are increasingly wary of his expanding ambitions. They recognize that an emboldened Shinde, eager to fill the political vacuum left by Uddhav Thackeray and a fragmented Nationalist Congress Party, will aggressively attempt to expand his footprint across the state, potentially encroaching upon the BJP’s own traditional support bases. Power Sharing This dramatically enhanced political heft immediately raises pressing questions regarding power-sharing arrangements, both at the Centre and in the state. Armed with thirteen MPs, Shinde’s camp is undoubtedly preparing to seek greater political rewards. In the Union Cabinet, his demand for an additional, high-profile ministerial berth is now backed by solid arithmetic. Given his heightened utility to the national coalition, the BJP high command is highly likely to accommodate this request during the next cabinet reshuffle. However, the power struggle within the Maharashtra state cabinet promises to be far more contentious. Shinde, who had to settle for the Deputy Chief Ministership behind Devendra Fadnavis following the last assembly elections, may now feel emboldened to petition the BJP leadership for the top job. The BJP’s state unit is actively preparing to fiercely resist any such demand. Senior BJP leaders are quick to emphasize that despite his parliamentary gains, Shinde’s legislative strength in the state assembly hovers around 57 MLAs, dwarfed by the BJP’s commanding 132 legislators. Consequently, conceding the Chief Minister’s chair remains highly improbable. Instead, the BJP will be forced into a delicate balancing act, likely appeasing Shinde by granting his faction a larger share of influential, heavyweight portfolios within the state government to keep the alliance stable. Ultimately, through sheer political audacity, Eknath Shinde has ensured that neither New Delhi nor Mumbai can afford to govern without catering to his increasingly formidable political weight.

Political Pantomime

The spectacle on Nagpur’s outskirts this week had all the trappings of rural discontent with tractors clogging highways, angry farmers waving placards and a fiery leader - Bachchu Kadu, the mercurial chief of the Prahar Janshakti Party – vowing to court arrest. Kadu and other leaders led a ‘Maha Elgar Morcha’ that paralysed National Highway 44 for nearly twenty kilometres, causing commuters much distress. The ostensible demand was a complete waiver of farm loans. Yet the choreography of the protest with respect to its timing – just ahead of the civic polls - and the government’s conspicuous inaction raises a different question. Is this dissent, or a display staged for electoral effect?


The High Court had ordered the highway cleared by 6 p.m. on Wednesday. By then, Kadu declared that his followers would obey the order. There was no lathi charge, no arrests, no water cannons; only patient police and cameras capturing the ‘defiance.’ Even Raju Shetti, the veteran farmer leader, joined the agitation, as did other familiar faces from Maharashtra’s small party circuit. Yet the Mahayuti government, otherwise swift to crush unruly demonstrations, remained curiously indulgent. For a ruling dispensation led by Devendra Fadnavis, known for his administrative discipline, such tolerance seems uncharacteristic. 


The CM, for his part, sounded almost conciliatory. He reminded reporters that his government was already considering a loan waiver, had announced a Rs. 32,000-crore relief package, and was transferring funds directly to farmers’ accounts. He urged the protesters to talk, not block roads. Yet, his tone lacked the sharpness one might expect when a national highway lies paralysed. 


The leniency invites speculation. Maharashtra’s civic polls are approaching, and Kadu’s base in Vidarbha could prove decisive in a few pockets where the ruling alliance is vulnerable. A noisy protest that stops short of violence but projects populist empathy might serve multiple purposes: allowing Kadu to refurbish his image as a rustic rebel while letting the government appear sensitive to agrarian distress. Both sides gain visibility and neither loses face. 


If that is indeed the subtext, the protest becomes less a cry of anger than a managed performance. In Indian politics, ‘scripted agitations’ are not rare. They offer the illusion of confrontation while keeping the actors within the same tent. For the public, however, the spectacle blurs accountability while causing needless commuting hassle.


Kadu’s insistence on immediate waiver by bypassing discussion seems designed to dramatize impatience rather than seek negotiation.


Yet, if the government truly wished to stop the disruption, it could have. Instead, it chose indulgence, allowing the protest to unfold. In an election season, outrage can be a convenient currency. 


Whatever the motive, the real losers remain the farmers themselves. Each wave of agitation raises expectations that the State will simply write off debt, discouraging reform of the credit system that perpetuates rural distress. Loan waivers offer temporary relief but little structural change. Maharashtra’s treasury, already strained, can scarcely sustain populism as policy. 

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