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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

PR Stunts in Bollywood: Hits and Misses

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

PR Stunts in Bollywood: Hits and Misses

The film industry, like any other, is filled with both good and bad people. Recent incidents in Bollywood, however, have shown how public relations (PR) tactics can make or break a film. We’ve often seen actors promoting each other’s films and even rivals coming together, like the two Khans forgetting their past differences. But some recent PR moves have been disastrous for one film while working for another. Let’s talk about the contrasting fates of Jigra and Stree 2.


Karan Johar’s Jigra, starring Alia Bhatt, was a much-talked-about revenge drama. Despite the initial hype, it failed miserably at the box office, and many point to PR blunders as a reason. One of the key criticisms was the perception of nepotism, with Johar casting Alia Bhatt, a regular in his films. Adding fuel to the fire, the premiere show was cancelled, with Johar stating it was to “preserve the cinematic experience for all.” This raised eyebrows—why, then, wereprevious films shown to the media before release? Was it a PR strategy that backfired? It certainly didn’t work this time.


Another PR misstep came when director Vasan Bala said Jigra was never meant for Alia Bhatt, and that Karan Johar had sent her the script without his knowledge. Later, Johar clarified that Bala was only referring to grammatical errors in the script. Still, the damage was already done, and the PR gimmick fell flat.


To make matters worse, Divya Kumar Khosla, wife of T-Series head Bhushan Kumar, publicly attacked Jigra’s box office collections, even sharing pictures of empty theatres. This controversy allegedly stemmed from a story feud between Jigra and a film produced by Mukesh Bhatt called Saavi, where both films had similar themes—Jigra featuring a sister fighting for her brother, and Saavi about a wife fighting for her husband. The rivalry led to unnecessary public mudslinging, which only added to Jigra’s downfall.

On top of these issues, Manipur-based actor Bijou Thaangjam accused Jigra’s makers of unprofessionalism, claiming his dates were blocked for the film without confirmation of his role, resulting in the loss of other opportunities. He also raised concerns about how North-East actors are often treated by big production houses. This controversy added further negative PR for Jigra.


Despite all these PR attempts, the film’s fate could not be changed. In the end, as the Hindi saying goes, “Chura kharbuje par gire ya kharbuja chure par, katna toh kharbuja hi hai”—meaning, no matter what happens, the outcome was inevitable.


In contrast, Stree 2, another film that faced its own PR challenges, turned out to be a box office hit. Actor Aparshakti Khurana recently found himself caught in a controversy when he commented on the credits for the film’s success, which many interpreted as taking a jab at the lead actors. Fans of Rajkummar Rao and Shraddha Kapoor debated over who deserved more credit for the film’s success, overshadowing the contributions of others, including director Amar Kaushik.


Khurana later clarified that the success of the film should be celebrated, rather than getting entangled in debates about credit. Despite the PR blunders, Stree 2 was saved by its strong storyline, songs, and performances, proving that a film’s quality ultimately speaks louder than PR tactics.


At the end of the day, a film’s success depends on whether the common audience likes it. No amount of PR manipulation can change that. Filmmakers should remember that while they might try to sway public opinion, they cannot fool the aam aadmi.


(The author is a communication professional. Views personal.)

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