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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Raj’s Solo Gambit

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Raj Thackeray, the maverick leader of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), has long been the political enfant terrible of Maharashtra. In a recent address to his party workers in Goregaon, he declared the MNS’s intent to contest the upcoming state elections independently, distancing himself from both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Thackeray’s rhetoric was fiery as ever, positioning himself as the outsider in the state’s fluid political landscape.


His assertion that the MNS will be part of the next government is a bold claim for a leader whose party has been in decline since its heyday in 2012. In his address, Thackeray railed against political flip-flopping, lambasting those who switched sides for power and warning that Maharashtra should never bow before the dictates of Delhi—a thinly veiled critique of the central government’s influence over the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti coalition.


Thackeray’s criticism of industrial giant Adani, accusing it of land grabs in Maharashtra, may be an attempt to tap into a perceived well of populist anger against crony capitalism. But this anti-corporate stance sits uneasily with his recent dalliance with the BJP, a party that has hardly shied away from close ties with big business.


His dismissal of the Maratha reservation as unattainable and critique of the ‘Ladki Bahin’ welfare scheme—deemed fiscally unsustainable—reflect his willingness to tackle contentious issues, even at the risk of alienating a key voter bloc.


Yet, despite this strident anti-establishment tone, Thackeray’s actions have been far more conciliatory towards the ruling BJP and CM Shinde in the last couple of years. Earlier this year, he campaigned vigorously for the ruling Mahayuti’s candidates in the Lok Sabha elections after declaring his unconditional support for PM Modi despite receiving no electoral seat himself. His familiar brand of oratory, marked by scathing attacks on his cousin and rival, Uddhav Thackeray and savage lampooning of political rivals, has not translated into any political capital.


The MNS, founded in 2006 to champion the cause of the ‘Marathi manoos’, has seen its fortunes dwindle over the years. In 2014, it suffered twin electoral debacles and subsequent local and national elections only cemented its political irrelevance. Even its fiery campaign against north Indians, which once garnered both support and notoriety, has become a footnote. The question remains what does Raj Thackeray want? In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, he had campaigned for Congress-NCP. This time, his meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah earlier this year led us to think the MNS would finally be an integral part of the Mahayuti. This, however, has not come to pass, and Thackeray’s solo gambit for the state elections suggests either a calculated risk or a desperate last stand. If the MNS falters once more in this Assembly election, Thackeray risks being consigned to the margins of Maharashtra’s political history.

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