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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Raj Thackeray’s Political Dance

Raj Thackeray

With Maharashtra’s Assembly elections looming, a political shuffle is taking shape in Mumbai. At a high-profile meeting held in a five-star Mumbai hotel on Monday, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis reportedly held a closed-door discussion with Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray, reportedly over seat-sharing arrangements in key constituencies like Shivdi, Worli and Mahim.


Despite unconditionally backing the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha election, Raj had recently announced the MNS would contest the Assembly election on its own. However, there appears to be a tacit understanding that the Mahayuti parties, especially the Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the BJP, would be strategically backing the MNS candidates in key Mumbai seats to defeat the rival Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray, Raj’s estranged cousin.


Raj’s son, Amit Thackeray, is expected to make his political debut in Mahim, a constituency contested by MNS leader Nitin Sardesai in the past. One of Mahim’s neighbouring constituencies is Worli, where Uddhav’s son, Aaditya Thackeray, is expected to defend his seat. In September, Raj had held a rally in Worli, where he tried to rouse nativist sentiments by calling on the ‘sons of the soil’ to stand up for their fundamental rights.The rally had coincided with the unveiling of the MNS’s ‘Vision Worli’ a strategic move to ostensibly counter Aaditya Thackeray’s programme.


By supporting Raj indirectly, the Mahayuti hopes (as it always has) to use MNS as a tool to split the Marathi vote and weaken Uddhav’s Shiv Sena (UBT). 


Despite the MNS not having a single MLA or MP across Maharashtra, the BJP has always hoped to make use of Raj’s still extant Marathi-speaking vote-bank not just in Mumbai, but in Thane and Nashik to challenge the Sena (UBT) in wake of Muslim, Christian and Dalit voters gravitating towards Uddhav Thackeray since the latter’s alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar.


The MNS’ twin debacles in the 2014 parliamentary and Assembly elections left the party in utter disarray, with the slide continuing through the 2017 civic election as well as the 2019 State and national elections. Following its rout in the 2019 Assembly election, an atrophied MNS had changed its ideological direction from its nativist stance by veering towards Hindutva politics.


The MNS’ about-turns have compounded its woes. In 2014, Raj endorsed Prime Minister Modi, only to campaign fervently against him in the 2019 general elections, aligning himself with the NCP. Ahead of the Lok Sabha, he returned to giving unconditional support to Modi by campaigning for the Mahayuti. His constant political oscillations have caused confusion within his ranks.


That said, for Shinde and the BJP, having a Thackeray on their side, even tacitly, offers a symbolic boost in their battle with Uddhav for the supremacy of Mumbai.

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