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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Responsible Reaction to Plastic Menace

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Plastic Menace

India is now the largest producer of plastic waste, posing a serious threat to the environment and public health. How can we responsibly address this issue? While the ability to process waste defines the problem’s scope, individual responsibility is also crucial.

Two weeks ago, a paper published in the famous scientific journal Nature, which explained the enormity of the plastic waste menace, was quoted in this column. The paper pointed out that almost one fifth of the world’s plastic waste is produced in India. However, when labelling India as the largest producer of plastic waste, one also needs to factor in the fact that India houses around one-sixth of the total global population. The same paper also states that China was the biggest producer of plastic waste a few years ago, but by making investments in developing effective waste management systems, they have managed to tackle the issue successfully. The paper also suggests that developing countries should follow the example set by developed countries and invest more in waste management systems that would tackle the plastic menace.

However, the paper highlights that while inadequate waste management systems are the main issue in developing countries, the problem continues in developed nations even with robust systems in place. The paper attributes the growing plastic menace in these nations to irresponsible behaviour among the population. Is it not a more serious problem if people are irresponsibly throwing plastic anywhere in nature despite having some of the largest systems to tackle the issue in place? Shouldn’t we also demand that developed nations, which have established waste management systems, take action against the plastic menace in their own countries rather than focussing solely on developing nations where people’s behaviour regarding plastic seems to be more responsible?

The system of plastic waste management involves stages such as collecting, segregating, and sending recyclable materials back to the industry, with the final step being the incineration of non-recyclable items. One needs both the technology and trained human resources to develop a system to tackle the plastic menace. The paper published in Nature pinpoints India’s problem as its inability to collect plastic waste.

However, while thinking of sustainable development, one also needs to take into account the efficacy of the system developed for tackling the plastic menace. That would involve factors like availability, capacity, and the condition of the incinerators. Plastic waste going into nature due to the non-availability of incinerators and the air pollution that would be caused by improper operations or improper condition of incinerators would both finally add to the pollution, though one of those would be visible and the other would not be visible.

This demands a more evolved approach while looking at the plastic menace. Just counting the total plastic waste produced by a country does not completely reflect the problem. To be able to assess the issue of plastic menace completely, one will need to study the various types of plastic products being used in a particular country, their supply chains, as well as the whole lifecycle of such products till they go to landfills as waste. Such a study may show that some of the plastic products have actually proved to be eco-friendly.

Over the past few decades, plastic has replaced metal in several automobile components, bringing down the weight and boosting the fuel efficiency of the vehicles, which in turn has led to decreased emissions of greenhouse gases. One must also factor in the energy efficiency of the waste plastic management system, which involves the consumption of large amounts of energy. Additionally, correctly identifying the real problem areas is necessary. Some of our policies make the use of wrappers mandatory, and plastic wrappers amount to more plastic waste than plastic carry bags, which have been banned. A relook at and rationalisation of such policies too would help undo the plastic menace.

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