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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Heavy monsoon rains disrupt normal life; IMD issues red alert in 8 districts

  • PTI
  • May 30, 2025
  • 3 min read


Thiruvananthapuram/Thrissu As heavy monsoon rains continued to cause widespread damage and disrupt normal life in Kerala on Friday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a red alert in eight districts for the day.



The IMD issued a red alert in Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Thrissur, Kannur and Kasaragod and an orange alert in the remaining six districts of the state for the day.



It also upgraded the alert status from orange to red in Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam districts for three hours from 1pm onwards.



A red alert by IMD indicates heavy to extremely heavy rain of over 20 cm in 24 hours, while an orange alert means very heavy rain of 11 cm to 20 cm, and a yellow alert means heavy rainfall between 6 cm and 11 cm.



State Revenue Minister K Rajan said that the heavy rains have caused widespread damage in the state and advised people to be cautious.



Speaking to reporters at a press conference in Thrissur, Rajan further said that as the westerly winds are expected to continue over Kerala for the next five days and due to the possibility of widespread rainfall, caution should be exercised by everyone.



The minister said that if everyone is careful for the next five days, any major crisis can be avoided.



He advised the public to avoid unnecessary trips, especially to hilly areas, and said that those living in dangerous places should move to safer locations or relief camps.



Rajan said that there were 66 camps functioning in the state currently and 1,894 people were living there.



Around 4,000 camps are ready to be opened to accommodate about six lakh people. The public should not be averse to moving there, he added.



He also said that hundreds of homes in the state have been partially or completely destroyed due to the heavy rains and strong winds since the arrival of the monsoons.



The minister said that according to the IMD there is a possibility of heavy rains in all districts of the state in the week from May 30 to June 5 and the amount of rainfall would be more than usual for this period.



In the second week of June also there will be rain in all districts of the state, but it will be less than normal for this period, the minister said.



The Pathanamthitta district administration, in a statement, said that around 200 homes have been partially damaged in the rains and the state-run power distribution company, KSEB, has suffered extensive losses due to damage to high-tension and low-tension poles and transformers.



The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) said that there is a possibility of high waves ranging from 3 to 3.9 meters along the Kerala coast till 5.30 pm on Saturday.



It issued a red alert in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Ernakulam and Thrissur and and orange alert in Malappuram, Kozhikode, Kannur and Kasaragod districts of the state.



It also urged fishermen and coastal residents to be cautious and warned against launching of small boats, yachts or fishing vessels during this time.



During the day, uprooting of trees, power disruptions and waterlogging of low-lying areas and places close to rivers were reported from across the state.



An 85-year-old woman, who worked as an MGNREGA worker in Ernakulam district, died when an uprooted tree fell on top of her while returning home on Thursday evening.



The Ernakulam district authorities also reported a rise in the water level of the Muvattupuzha River above the flood warning markers, leading to the opening of three shutters of the Malankara Dam by 20 centimetres (cm).



In many places in the hilly districts of Wayanad and Idukki, people were moved to relief camps from areas prone to landslides and flash floods.



New camps were also set up in these districts, authorities said.



Meanwhile, the state government said that it has sanctioned Rs one crore each to all District Collectors from the State Disaster Response Fund


(SDRF) for carrying out monsoon preparedness activities.



Additionally, Rs two crore each has been sanctioned to the Thiruvananthapuram and Kozhikode District Disaster Management Authorities for undertaking flood mitigation works in the cities, the government said.



The government said that it has also sanctioned Rs one lakh to each panchayat, Rs 3 lakh to each municipality and Rs 5 lakh to each corporation in the state to buy necessary equipment and open storage centres as part of monsoon preparedness activities.



On Thursday, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had said that the monsoon rains, which arrived early this year, have caused widespread damage in the state and urged those living in areas prone to flooding and landslides to move to safer locations or relief camps.



The monsoons had arrived in the state on May 24, eight days ahead of schedule.

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